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Sandy Lighthouse

Sandy Lighthouse
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  • Why Batteries Are Too Valuable To Waste On Solar Power Integration And Electric Cars [View article]
    John and Randy, you both have valid points. The difference is whether the government subsidizes Tesla in disregard of the objective truths John has pointed out. The ultimate arbiter of efficiency is the market: if enough people want to spend their money on Tesla vehicles to make the company profitable, and ignorantly think they are somehow helping the environment, then more power to them. Just don't float this boat (or any other business or technology) on my tax dollar. Reminds me of the whole insane methanol subsidy.
    Mar 10 08:39 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Economies Of Scale In Battery And EV Manufacturing [View article]
    Thanks for your excellent rational analysis. Keep up the great work.
    Dec 17 01:24 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Battery Swap Is A No-Go [View article]
    Here's how I see reality: Tesla's real competition is the Toyota Prius. No range anxiety there. The plug in Prius also gets 90 epa mpg, but only for ten mile range. Cost is $30k. As battery technology advances, Toyota can increase battery size and decrease ICE size while keeping price constant, and also increase battery only range. If batteries ever get get cheap and efficient enough, Prius can evolve to battery only. The only way for Tesla to beat the Prius strategy for lower end cars is to come up with some radical weight savings in the basic car structure.
    Jun 21 04:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chromebooks Won't Rule The Future [View article]
    Alex, have you actually owned a chromebook? Anybody that has bought and installed antivirus software is potentially a chromebook (or box) buyer. Subtract out the cost and headache of antivirus, and chromebook becomes very compelling. Also chromebooks are smokin' fast because of their SSD, which no one else has at anywhere near the price point. Chromebook design and manufacturing is at a very early stage in the cycle: expect quality to rise, and prices to drop. The internet and the cloud are the killer app on chromebooks. As internet infrastructure and speeds increase and Google adds and improves apps, chrome OS will be the wave of the future. Insomuch as the cloud succeeds, chrome OS will succeed, locking people further into Google's ecosystem and bleeding Microsoft. Written on a chromebox purchased for $179.
    Aug 16 10:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The True Genius Of Tesla [View article]
    John: Agree or disagree, your rational perspective is useful. Life tends to "educate" those who act irrationally or on the basis of belief rather than objective fact. It will be interesting to see how the Tesla story plays out, but my guess is that Tesla has the potential to deliver some hard lessons.
    Dec 20 11:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Climate Change Fraud [View instapost]
    The lowest hanging fruit is conservation, efficiency, call it what you will. Not that there aren't other paths forward.
    Aug 28 12:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Climate Change Fraud [View instapost]
    Anybody who buys corn by the 50 pound sack like I do knows that Moon has it nailed.
    Aug 28 12:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Don't 'Like' Its Stock Price [View article]
    Sacha, thanks for a great article on the rational value of FB. My single favorite quote on investing is Keynes saying something like " Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid." But checking in on the rational value of an investment from time to time is a useful exercise.
    Aug 5 02:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Could Be Hiding Something Huge [View article]
    Jeach- I'm not technically sophisticated enough to get involved in this pissing match. But there are several anecdotal situations that give some credibility to some of your assertions. 1. Apple apparently is going with TSMC for some "A" chip production. TSMC may not be the best but apparently will, in Apple's judgement, be good enough for the near future. 2. In twenty years of investing in tech, I've never seen a major tech company succeed on the basis of superior technology alone, and I've seen a lot of companies succeed by copying the first movers.
    Jul 8 03:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Birth Of The Lithium Millionaires [View article]
    Here's what's never mentioned: instead of transporting the energy self contained in the vehicle, transport it via stationary electrical conductor, i.e.. the third rail, i.e. mass transit. That's the real end game. No new technology. Massive efficiency advantages. Major social barriers.

    Also, what's the single most efficient device ever invented for converting stored chemical energy into kinetic energy? The bicycle.
    Jun 21 08:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: All Its Ducks In A Row [View article]
    I've been mulling the Intel long thesis over for awhile. Haswell alone makes INTC a long term buy, IMHO. Any foundry or mobile gains are a pure bonus. Thanks for all the articles, Russ.

    For what it's worth, the whole tablet business looks like a race to the bottom to me. The detachable keyboard thing looks gimmicky to me. Consumers are beginning to get over the hype of tablets and touch screens, and will either go low end tablet or mid-range Haswell ultrabook type products or (Haswell) Macbook Air. Touch screen has it's uses, but it's no substitute for GUI. Some touch screen interface innovations will be used to make GUI software cleaner and more elegant and appealing. As Russ has pointed out, it's toys versus tools. Intel owns the tool segment, and could make some inroads into toys.
    May 2 11:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Is It Really Too Cheap To Ignore? [View article]
    Juggler, As a long term holder of Apple, I agree with all of your analysis. Right now, it comes down to the potential upside of an iwatch versus the possible downside of earnings and guidance in April. Tim Cook is not an idiot, and it's possible he's keeping his powder dry because he knows things may get worse before they get better- and he may need to save whatever ammo he's got for when it's most needed. I don't see much more than 10-15 percent upside in the short term, and the long term picture is very uncertain
    Mar 10 08:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
    John, you just accurately summed up the whole story in a nutshell. The rest is just drama- interesting, but not useful for investment purposes (unless your purpose is other than to make money.) We live in an age of political correctness, which sooner or later gets slapped hard by reality.
    Feb 15 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Last Man Standing - Already? [View article]
    There's no way I can decipher this argument. What I can understand is that computing as a whole is migrating away from the x86 (Intel's cash cow) platform towards ARM in the form of IOS, Android, and misc. server applications. That's why Intel is willing to lose billions on their mobile effort: because they have no choice. This looks like a race to the bottom to me. Even if you win, you lose.
    Aug 14 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: 3 More Reasons To Take Your Foot Off The Gas [View article]
    Thanks. Your work is appreciated. Very rational.
    Jul 29 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment