ariesl

Expect Continued Drops in Solar

Isn't it logcal that as ASP's come down, demand will go up? Since the cost of poly is dropping fast, won't that assuage the hurt to margin deterioration? Cheap solar is what the world has been waiting for!
Hey Solar Sam (Great name), why would you not want to see a temporary glut of cheap PV from China? Cost is what has been keeping most most would be buyers out of the market. Let's face it, 20 year pay back is not most peoples idea of good investment! If ASP's plummet, polysilicon prices fall, and gov't help continues, pay back could be cut in half or better. I believe demand will soar. Moreover, utility companies in the US are included in the Gov't subsidies as of 1/1/09. They don't have as much trouble borrowing money as most businesses or individuals.

Even though I own a nice chunk of First Solar stock, I believe the higher efficiency of Poly collectors will still make them the solar of choice for those with limited roof space. Also, compare P/E ratios, their Chinese competitors are selling at a fraction of the cost of our precious First Solar shares. Also, I believe the Chinese Government will simply pump in the money to support their solar companies through the rough spots. I wouldn't want to live under one, but dictatorships can act fast when they need to. With one party, there's little of the tedious public grandstanding and political wrangling we see in our congress. Of course the corruption there makes Ted Stevens look like a saint!