karchad

Sentiment Overview: Return to Complacency

judging from the internet, the public investor sentiment is still overwhelmingly negative. The most read article on Seeking Alpha is a doom-and-gloom article (which 95% of the Seeking Allpha articles are). The fact is, the average investor is still not in this market. That's why it will keep going up. Normally I would have been pulling out after such a runup, but, contrary to this article (and in support of Mark Hulbert's opinion), i'm staying in this one for awhile. Until the internet posts turn positive, that is.

Pace of Insider Sales Continues to Escalate

On Aug 29 01:17 AM HERO1957 wrote:

> This is scary

You can read such statistics at ANY time during a bull market. This is why the average investor does terribly. At the speculative top, you will read zillions of statistics as to why the market will continue to rise.
Here, with the market still 30% below all-time highs, you will still read articles telling you to sell, trying to scare you.
When the Dow hits 14000, you will start to see the internet filled with "why this time is different" articles, urging you to BUY BUY BUY.
Financial literature always tells you to buy high, sell low. The true investor sees through this nonsense.

Speculative Trading Indicates Rally Losing Steam

On Aug 29 06:34 AM rick12345 wrote:

> LOL... Another clown who thinks equity markets will fall back to
> March levels..
> I hope you all read the following article on the various idiots who
> tried to short sell AIG and had their fingers burned. If not, heres
> a link for you
> www.bloomberg.com/apps...;sid=avo4UmCFM2v8


Bravo to you, sir. The doomers/gloomers try to convince us that the market is filled with exhuberance and mindless investing, like early 2000. However, a quick look at newspapers, internet sites (like this one), will tell you that negative sentiment seems to outnumber positive by at least a 10-1 ratio (my informal research). I'm betting that, of course with some bumps along the way, this market will rise for the next two years.

Consumer Sentiment as a Contrarian Predictor

This article points out a well-known (or decently known) contrarian indicator, but it bears repeating, especially as CNN repeats it ad infinitum in an attempt to prove that things are heading further downhill (until a Democrat is elected, of course).

Bank ETFs: Dire Predictions Slam Lenders, Bankers, and Brokers

My gosh, somebody actually wrote a GOOD article on financials for Seeking Alpha! Hey, guy, with such good analysis, you're liable to ruin all the negativity that I need to make money off the doomsdayers! Cut it out!

A Bull Market Correction or End of a Bear Market Rally?

No wonder investor's returns lag the market. Badly. Articles like this tell us to invest in what's already pricey, and avoid the depressed sectors by all means.... If you're an experienced investor, and a long-term investor, you know to do precisely the opposite.

Don't worry, in about 3 years, when housing and financials are up over 100%, the articles will only then tell you to invest in housing and financials.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

All in all, the market isnt exactly down since, say late January. Pretty long time for the doomsdayers to keep hoping it tumbles again. With all this bad news: oil, banks, housing,"inflation", the market still doesn't tumble. That tells me more than all this phony technical analysis

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Hard to believe, that given what we went thru with tech stocks, that there are still people willing to tell me that "it's different with oil, it's going to keep on going up and up and up".... The books are right, there can be a million speculative bubbles, but people will still believe that the million and first is not a bubble.

Will Dividend ETFs Be Crushed By An Obama Presidency?

i think speculation as to Obama's effect on the market is just that: speculation (disclaimer: I'm a Republican).... I think market performance is pretty random concerning Republican/Democrat. It's skewed in favor of Democrats the last 13 years because of the good performance under Clinton, and the bad one under Bush (no judgments here). for those of you who are young, just because the market did well under clinton, and bad under Bush, I would caution you not to gamble your money with rash conclusions. To sum up, i think absolutely NOTHING can be predicted as far as the market is concerned. It's senseless to invest your money based on it.

Bank of America: Better Than Treasuries

I'm suspicious of real high dividends. Without knowing much, it seems to me that a 7%+ dividend is way out of whack for a bank. Just raises red flags for me. As for the "dividend being safe" for a stock, yeah right, I have oceanfront land in Kansas for those who believe any dividend of a bank is "safe", and by the way, i'm bullish on the market, but still, dont throw caution to the wind!...

I prefer DVY, whose 4% dividend is truly safe because it's an ETF, and the only way the dividend gets cut is due to a price rise!

Any dividend north of 5% (non-REIT, that is), I'd do some serious due diligence on!

The ETF-Squared: It Reallocates For You

I agree with Billb, and my own personal experience bears it out, he's exactly right. When i rebalanced too frequently, i was missing too much gain in sharp equity moves up. I do it once a year, February, hoping it's the end of the year end rally (where was it this year???)

ETF Overload: How Much of It Will Stick?

The original idea of ETF's was for us average Joe's to invest in the indices, so we didn't have to mess with options and futures. Also, expenses were low. Now, with all these specialty ETF's, it's like mutual funds, if ya don't know what you're doing, you can lose your shirt. And these specialty ones are charging increasing expense fees.
I'm going to stick with the tried and true ones that follow the indices.

Dollar Falls on Lowest Consumer Sentiment in 28 Years

On the contrary, consumer confidence is a classic contrarian indicator. I love this statistic, and the agreement that goes with it. No wonder the market is rising rapidly from its low... And check out homebuilders ETF's XHB and ITB, year-to-date. Confusing to the doomsdayers? Of course! That's the way it always goes!

Financials ETF: The Worst May Be Behind Us

With the financial and housing sectors down so much, if you won't buy now, when exactly will you buy? Wait for them to move up 40%? This article is right on. I'm loading up on distressed sectors. That's how one makes long-term money without guesswork.

Homebuilder ETF Rises Despite More Bad Housing News

The ETF had it's plunge already, down to 13. It's a great buy. I'm in since beginning of year at about 17. Long term, you cant beat a sector that's down 70%. Heck, if you're a long-term investor, and you're not buying something like this, exactly when ARE you going to buy??? If you're not buying, you're not a long-term investor, you're a market timer.