karchad

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

All in all, the market isnt exactly down since, say late January. Pretty long time for the doomsdayers to keep hoping it tumbles again. With all this bad news: oil, banks, housing,"inflation", the market still doesn't tumble. That tells me more than all this phony technical analysis

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Hard to believe, that given what we went thru with tech stocks, that there are still people willing to tell me that "it's different with oil, it's going to keep on going up and up and up".... The books are right, there can be a million speculative bubbles, but people will still believe that the million and first is not a bubble.

The Global Agricultural Boom: No Bubbles Here

I totally disagree with this article. The tech bubble was not caused by over-issuing stock. That's ridiculous. It was caused by the entire country, from the bathroom attendent to the highest executive, believing that Yahoo was worth a thousand bucks a share, that "this time is different", "we're in a new era", "normal valuations need to be discarded" etc.... Can anyone say the Tulip bubble was caused by oversupply of tulips????
I can't say that agricultural commodities is in a bubble, but from the attitudes I see, including this article, it will be.
And concerning gold, I'm starting to hear people who have no interest in investing, telling me they're buying gold. My friend, THAT is what causes bubbles.
Oil? we're close to the classic bubble. I don't think it's a supply question. It's a speculator question. Everyone thinks they'll buy futures and there will always be someone to buy at a higher price. THAT is what causes bubbles.
At this moment, i read a million reasons to buy commodities, and a million reasons not to buy stocks. That's why i'm going long in financials and homebuilders. That's how it's done right. Been doing it for 40 years, and I'm doing quite well, and i'm not a particularly bright man either.