karchad

Sentiment Overview: Return to Complacency

judging from the internet, the public investor sentiment is still overwhelmingly negative. The most read article on Seeking Alpha is a doom-and-gloom article (which 95% of the Seeking Allpha articles are). The fact is, the average investor is still not in this market. That's why it will keep going up. Normally I would have been pulling out after such a runup, but, contrary to this article (and in support of Mark Hulbert's opinion), i'm staying in this one for awhile. Until the internet posts turn positive, that is.

Better To Be Lucky Than Smart: The Bear Market is Over

Agree totally. Let's not forget the extreme negative sentiment, which came so quickly this time. In 2000-2002, it really took over a year for negative sentiment to take hold. This time, seemingly in a month or two, it seemed the whole world predicted disaster. And, as happens 100% of the time, when the investors are unanimous in an opinion, that opinion does not become fact.
Like you say, it wouldn't surprise me if the recent market gains in fact accelerate. I can't find a single "common person" who believes in it, or is investing any money at all (besides already-regular 401k contributions).
In fact, I hear the common person talking about gold and oil, a sure sign to be careful in those areas.

Macroeconomic Warning Goes Unheeded

aSpadaSpade, I heard the same garbage all of 2003 and 2004. Every bear market brings out the "you're stupid if you're in the market" people. I've made money of you guys for 40 years. Plenty of it.

Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us

John, you're right for individual stocks, i dont advocate buy-and-hold for that. But for etfs/index funds, it's the best we can do. nobody can time the market. Not you, not me, not Buffet,Rogers, etc. The best we can do, is buy at low prices. Period. And you and i can tell what is a relatively low price. when the market drops 20%, it's time to buy. sure, you may not make money next week, next month. but long term, you return will exceed others' and maybe even exceed the indices. When the market is up for 5 years in a row, or bubbles up 80% in a year, it's time to lighten up. That's the best I can do to get decent returns. I can't time. And i dont believe ANYONE can. Not even a computer.

Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us

I'm grateful to the people who defended my comments, but i'm a little upset at it! Not personally, but I like to see 100 people attacking my optimism. Anyway, there will also be some John Pseudonyms, so don't be so hard on him. He helps the rest us profit in the equity's market! Without him, i wouldnt be retired!

Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us

Hey John Pseudonym, as the market slowly drifts up, it will be up 100% and you'll still be yelling "bear trap". I've heard from the likes of you for 40 years now, and have made tons of money off of people like you. Keep listing what's wrong with the economy, while I make money, buying at low points of the market, when people like you are yelling "Disaster".... By the way, homebuilders ITB is up from 13 to almost 21, i'm in at 17. An amateur like is probably scratching his hear, wondering how that can be, "the news is so bad". Here's a hint: you make money buying on bad news, not good news. Good luck losing your money

Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us

My optimistic take is that when selling dries up, we're at a bottom, even above it. It will take awhile for buying to pick up, yes, but to me, downside risk is limited, the greater risk is in missing that sudden move up. I'm in at this point. If the awful daily news hasn't created more selling, then there's no more selling to be had. I can wait, like in 2002, i went in big in August, the low was hit in october, but i had to wait till the next year for the gains. That's okay. I can look beyond CNN's daily disaster stories for my investment strategy. I like this article.

Sentiment Is Slow to Change, Part II

I agree totally with this article. One only has to read the posts on SeekingAlpha to realize the extreme quantity and quality of the negative sentiment. Now, that doesn't always translate to immediate gain tomorrow. But it makes me, a long-term investor, very confident in the next few years. Another reason that I feel confident is, I am hearing non-investors talk about going into gold and commodities. I guess these are the same people who talked about tech in 1999 and real estate in 2005.

Walking Away: The Next Mortgage Crisis

1. Articles like this are inevitable written by George Bush haters. They're looking to influence the election. If Hillary were in office right now, these articles wouldn't be written.

2. Since the middle of January, homebuilder stocks are up. I trust the movement of the market far more than these left-leaning articles.

A Long-Term View: Is This Market Ripe for Opportunities?

I'd say this guy knows what he's talking about. If we haven't seen the lows, we've seen pretty close to it. I'd look for a HUGE rally in the 2nd half of 2008. I'd say 6/08 - 6/09, the s&p will gain 30%. Beaten down financials will at least dead-cat-bounce, and other stocks will gain sharply.

7 Reasons March Was Not the Bottom

The idea that we can't hit a bottom unless NOBODY IN THE WHOLE WORLD is predicting a bottom, is ridiculous. There were plenty of guessers who picked the 2002 bottom. It's the fact that the public at large gives up, is what gives us the bottom. And judging from SeekingAlpha articles and comments, and the rate of redemptions of equity mutual funds, I do believe we have seen the bottom. You've heard it here.