Surprise Cash Infusion Turns 2013 Into A Reset Year For Navios Maritime Holdings [View article]
Hi bbarberayr,
The BDI is a compilation (much like Dow or S&P) of Cape,Panamax,Handymax vessels over the most common sea route they trade. You can research more on this under "Baltic Index".
If you want to stay abreast of the current market development I would recommend Clarkson Shipbrokers in London. They have very good research. Website is : http://bit.ly/JpcbP4
In their latest report you will see that a 1 year old Capesize fixed 12 - 18 months charter at USD 11,250
Surprise Cash Infusion Turns 2013 Into A Reset Year For Navios Maritime Holdings [View article]
Well written article, Tim.
On the surface it looks like a pretty good deal for Navios to receive this lumpsum payment from the insurer. But make no doubt about who most likely initiated the move. It was the insurer, not the insured.
Many investors are also blinded by high dividend yields without looking into the sustainability of the earnings. Q3 EPS was 4 cent and dividend 6 cent (50 percent more than earnings).
You did mention that it is inconceivable that the market can maintain at rates below break even. It is only supply and demand that dictate the rates. Unfortunately like Mr John M. Keynes noted "The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
I have many times pointed out on SA that at some time the tide will turn and people will again make money in the dry bulk shipping market. Just not sure that time has come. Why catch a falling knife ? ? can be B/Estay
Navios Maritime Holdings: The Drybulk Shipper To Consider Owning [View article]
3rd Quarter EPS 4 cent and dividend 6 cent How long can the company dish out more in dividend than it earns ?
98 pct fleet coverage this year, only 33 pct fleet coverage next year. Good news is the BDI is improving so Navios must be praying they can renew some charters at considerably higher rates than spot market
Safe Bulkers: Strong Upside For Value Investors [View article]
Hi Nstollon,
Nothing fundamental has changed since I wrote my comment (above) in April. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has improved somewhat off its low point, but I suspect this is a seasonal thing. Agri products and coal being shipped before winter
The drycargo freight market is very seasonal. This was also mentioned by Ramisle. So be carefull. Do not put too much faith in an increase in the BDI, unless there is no reversal in that trend as we go into the winter season.
You point out that newbuilding orders are presently down 54 %, but you need to bear in mind that in shipping, like in commerical real estate, there is a relatively long time between you can see the effect of owners great optimism (ordering ships) and the actual effect on the market. You need to look at the large number of newbuildings which has been coming in to the market, not just in 2012, but in 2010 and 2011. It will take time for the market to absorb this addition to fleet.
In theory it is a good idea to pick up assets on the cheap, but you need to take John Maynard Keynes wise words into account. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
At some time in the future, money will be made (again) in the shipping market by those who has survived. I have commented on SA before, that I just do not think that time has come yet to invest in this sector.
General Electric Rebounds To Build Investor Confidence [View article]
Paulina,
GE is a great company and it ought to be part of most investors portfolio. But at a price. A P/E of 18,1 is not exactly cheap and when we look at the portfolio as a whole and we want to trim our positions, some of our GE stock had to go.
Having said that, if we see a pullback in the market (Goldman thinks we will see 1,200 on S&P 500 by end of the year), it's worth picking up some GE again.. Just not at todays level, so to say its a BUY right now,,,i have to disagree.
Inflation Risks Are Rising: How To Invest In A Tricky Environment [View article]
Exactly,,, you need to keep an eye on monetary velocity because if the money the Fed is pumping into the banking system stays there, inflation will not be a problem
I am sure Pandit, Diamond and the rest will be getting a call from Bernanke soon......
Is Microsoft The Ultimate Value Trap? [View article]
positions north of 30 and not sure I would go back in (hence value trap...)
Is Microsoft The Ultimate Value Trap? [View article]
Amit,
The answer is : YES. It is a valuetrap.
Surprise Cash Infusion Turns 2013 Into A Reset Year For Navios Maritime Holdings [View article]
Hi bbarberayr,
The BDI is a compilation (much like Dow or S&P) of Cape,Panamax,Handymax vessels over the most common
sea route they trade. You can research more on this under
"Baltic Index".
If you want to stay abreast of the current market development
I would recommend Clarkson Shipbrokers in London. They
have very good research. Website is : http://bit.ly/JpcbP4
In their latest report you will see that a 1 year old Capesize fixed 12 - 18 months charter at USD 11,250
Good luck
Surprise Cash Infusion Turns 2013 Into A Reset Year For Navios Maritime Holdings [View article]
Well written article, Tim.
On the surface it looks like a pretty good deal for Navios to
receive this lumpsum payment from the insurer. But make
no doubt about who most likely initiated the move. It was
the insurer, not the insured.
Many investors are also blinded by high dividend yields
without looking into the sustainability of the earnings.
Q3 EPS was 4 cent and dividend 6 cent (50 percent more
than earnings).
You did mention that it is inconceivable that the market
can maintain at rates below break even. It is only supply
and demand that dictate the rates. Unfortunately like Mr John M.
Keynes noted "The market can remain irrational longer than
you can stay solvent".
I have many times pointed out on SA that at some time the
tide will turn and people will again make money in the dry
bulk shipping market. Just not sure that time has come.
Why catch a falling knife ? ?
can be B/Estay
Navios Maritime Holdings: The Drybulk Shipper To Consider Owning [View article]
3rd Quarter EPS 4 cent and dividend 6 cent
How long can the company dish out more in dividend
than it earns ?
98 pct fleet coverage this year, only 33 pct fleet coverage
next year. Good news is the BDI is improving so Navios
must be praying they can renew some charters at
considerably higher rates than spot market
Safe Bulkers: Strong Upside For Value Investors [View article]
Nothing fundamental has changed since I wrote my comment (above) in April. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has improved somewhat off its low point, but I suspect this is a seasonal thing. Agri products and coal being shipped before winter
Shipping Stocks: Sink Or Swim? [View article]
Ok,, good luck than
Shipping Stocks: Sink Or Swim? [View article]
Hi Christopher,
If you are convinced of a turnaround,, why not put your
money where your mouth is ?
Or is this all just theoreticall talk ................
Have a nice day
Shipping Stocks: Sink Or Swim? [View article]
Yes Christopher
The drycargo freight market is very seasonal. This was also mentioned by Ramisle. So be carefull. Do not put too much
faith in an increase in the BDI, unless there is no reversal
in that trend as we go into the winter season.
Lasse
Shipping Stocks: Sink Or Swim? [View article]
You point out that newbuilding orders are presently down 54 %, but you need to bear in mind that in shipping, like in commerical real estate, there is a relatively long time between you can see the effect of owners great optimism (ordering ships) and the actual effect on the market. You need to look at the large number of newbuildings which has been coming in to the market, not just in 2012, but in 2010 and 2011. It will take time for the market to absorb this addition to fleet.
In theory it is a good idea to pick up assets on the cheap, but you need to take John Maynard Keynes wise words into account. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
At some time in the future, money will be made (again) in the shipping market by those who has survived. I have commented on SA before, that I just do not think that time has come yet to invest in this sector.
Do not try to catch a falling knife......
Best regards
Lasse
Shipping Stocks: Sink Or Swim? [View article]
Hi Ramisle, well written reply. You saved me time,, because i would have said the exact same things to Mr Wallace. .
Citigroup - Rising Like A Phoenix [View article]
Well written. Let's hope Pandit can get regulatory approvals soon to start share buy back and meaningfull dividends
Europe's New Energy Crisis Looms [View article]
Would it not be more appropriate to call the
article "Europe's new renewable energy crises looms" ?
A collaps in the carbon credit trading does not mean
that there is a lack of reliable energy available.
General Electric Rebounds To Build Investor Confidence [View article]
GE is a great company and it ought to be part of most investors portfolio. But at a price. A P/E of 18,1 is not exactly cheap and when we look at the portfolio as a whole and we want to trim our positions, some of our GE stock had to go.
Having said that, if we see a pullback in the market (Goldman thinks we will see 1,200 on S&P 500 by end of the year), it's worth picking up some GE again.. Just not at todays level, so to say its a BUY right now,,,i have to disagree.
Inflation Risks Are Rising: How To Invest In A Tricky Environment [View article]
Exactly,,, you need to keep an eye on monetary velocity
because if the money the Fed is pumping into the banking
system stays there, inflation will not be a problem
I am sure Pandit, Diamond and the rest will be getting
a call from Bernanke soon......