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bkrolik

bkrolik
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  • Netflix Virtuous Cycle Is Intact, But Stock Is Fully Valued [View article]
    Hi Eric,

    For all your major charts you have nice % growth, except for the content lease obligations. It would be helpful to have that there too. Also, you are missing an important piece - cash flow chart.

    Using your own numbers - content lease obligations per streaming sub looks pretty flat to me. If you compare it to averaged free cash flow during last three years (which is essentially zero), you will see that NFLX does not really have much negotiating power with the content providers - they squeeze it dry, so it just survives without any cash generated for the shareholders. Thus comes the debt financing.

    Also, you'd better use cash flow for DCF, not EPS.
    Apr 22, 2015. 09:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Becomes An Investment With A Long Tail [View article]
    "The belief is based on evidence"

    What evidence? I have not seen any, except repeated mentioning of "belief".

    "... on news surrounding the company..."

    But you specifically said "Forget the news...". Sorry, but you contradict yourself.

    I am not looking for number-based analysis here. I would expect you to analyze/comment on news flow, but you repeatedly said to ignore it. Thus is my conclusion that your recommendation to buy AMZN is pure and unsupported belief. If your belief is based on "financial track record" (by which, I assume, you mean past stock price performance, as it cannot be "number-based analysis"), then it is good as it is. In this case I would advise to you read a footnote in any financial advisor document.....
    Apr 9, 2015. 12:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Becomes An Investment With A Long Tail [View article]
    "And yet Amazon is up again today" Yes, and moreover, it can also be up tomorrow )
    Securities indeed can trade up and down, sometimes it can happen for fundamental reasons, sometimes because of speculation, sometimes because of fraud. Shares in Madoff's fund had been advancing for years spectacularly, and you do know why.
    In AMZN discussion, my point is (and you just confirmed it again with your response), that you advise to buy the stock only because you simply believe its price will be higher.
    You not only fail to provide any quantitative, i.e. fundamental reasons for this, you also fail to provide any qualitative, i.e. "news flow" reasons. Moreover, you are specifically recommending to disregard such reasons, probably fearing that short-term news flow may be rather negative (the way you mentioned earnings in your response). In such case, it would be more prudent to advise to wait for the negative news to be released, and then buy on the dip.
    Again, I am not discussing the valuation of AMZN here. I am just analyzing your post and use it as an example of bull's thinking. If the pure belief is the only thing that remains to support the stock price now, it's to me a very interesting indication of sentiment - one piece (of many) of the valuation puzzle.
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:11 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Becomes An Investment With A Long Tail [View article]
    "•Forget the news and the noise"

    Fascinating. First, the bull's thesis was "profitability growth", "CFFO growth", "revenue growth", and "news are good". Then "profitability growth" got quietly dropped. Then "CFFO growth" followed. Then "revenue growth" died quietly. All these were sacrificed for "news are good" meme. And now what? A bull is killing "news"? Now they are just a "noise"? What is left??? How should we value this "....."? What ratio or multiple should we use?

    Hmm, even in the midst of Internet bubble, the bulls used some funny stuff like number of clicks. And now it is just "....", or, in other words, pure and unsupported belief? Welcome to the sect of Amazonah witnesses!
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:24 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alloy Steel International: Weak Hands Sell The Headline To Their Detriment [View article]
    Nat,

    The company stopped to file with SEC a while ago. Are they filing with any other official/government agency?
    Thank you.
    Sep 8, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Has No Profits (And Why It Works) [View article]
    King, you are not Gary in disguise by any chance?
    Sep 6, 2014. 07:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Has No Profits (And Why It Works) [View article]
    "...Amazon is in fact organized not just in these segments, but in dozens and dozens of separate teams, each with their own internal P&L and a high degree of autonomy."

    Is it the unique structure of the truly "visionary" company, which is "investing in the future"? Not quite so. In fact, many very successful (and not) companies are structured this way. And, believe me, every single company would attest it is investing in the future. But let's look at some quite successful examples.

    One, quite known, is JNJ. The company is structured exactly as you mentioned - in many different segments, quite loosely connected, with their own management and P&L. The company is investing heavily "into the future", starting and buying businesses with possible return delayed by decades (biotech). And yet, JNJ is also extremely successful in generating FCF and distributing big part of it to shareholders.

    What would it say to a non-sophisticated investor, like me? That JNJ not only has "vision" (or whatever buzzword you can use), or can spend cash (extremely easy for anyone who has cash), but it also can successfully bring multiple projects from "visionary" stage to the actual cash generating and distribution stage.

    During its two decades of operations, AMZN has not proven yet that its "vision" can lead to building and maintaining a number of businesses with cash generation and distribution on par with its valuation. Why should I believe, that all its current investments/CapEx would lead in the future to the cash flow generation appropriate for its current valuation? I just do not see any ground for this.

    You can probably say that some business lines of AMZN are just what I want as a proof. Maybe. But I would agree only if AMZN discloses enough about those lines in the financial reports so that I can analyze them the way I analyze JNJ. Quite simple, for a company like AMZN - just to allocate corresponding P&L to the mature business lines would answer a lot of questions.

    Until then, it is just point of belief, not analysis. And in that Gary beats everybody.
    Sep 5, 2014. 03:55 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Competitive Advantage Quantified [View article]
    Jesse,

    You said you limit your analysis by cash conversion cycle. Ok. In this case, what do you think should be top line growth rate to keep up with financing needs? What would happen to AMZN if revenue growth goes to 10%-15%? Do you think the level of CapEx will remain the same?

    Do you think this advantage AMZN has (putting aside warehouses), is critical, given the current cost of capital? Will the same cash conversion cycle hold if cost of capital (for everybody) increases substantially?

    Thank you
    Jun 1, 2014. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is Not Overvalued - It's Still A Startup With Practically Boundless Opportunity [View article]
    A company may delight customers by providing outstanding product, outstanding service, or the best price.

    AMZN does not provide any outstanding product, unlike AAPL. Their service is now in line, or subpar to many other online retailers. Just try to get to a live salesperson, or/get quick answers to your questions....

    And, finally, their prices are not the best anymore. You can search multiple articles and discussions on this site and elsewhere to confirm this. Also, if you serious about researching this company, I would recommend you to look up the cases of showing higher prices to Prime members.

    Given uncompetitive prices, it is only brand recognition plus accounting tricks that keep the current revenue growth rate. How long would it take for the brand recognition to fade?
    Apr 22, 2014. 06:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Is Doing Its Very Best To Increase Earnings [View article]
    On separate note, about Internet e-commerce evolution

    It is hardly arguable AMZN cannot compete with the likes of WMT and Costco on very high volume cheap items.

    It is very interesting how AMZN can compete with this breed:
    - relatively small, highly specialized in some specific segment of goods
    - offers huge variety of these goods
    - aggregates inventory from all/majority of manufacturers
    - presents and handles sales on par quality with AMZN, customer service is better
    - holds no or very small amount of inventory, all shipments come from manufacturers warehouses. No one-day delivery, but 3 days is common.
    - operates from one states or from overseas. Does not charge sales tax.
    - Shipments are free.
    - Lowest price available. Loyalty programs, frequent discounts and such.
    - Very low overhead.
    - Markets through Google shopping, eBay, other aggregators. I expect Alibaba to bring a lot of those to the US too.
    Apr 18, 2014. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Is Doing Its Very Best To Increase Earnings [View article]
    My feeling is, the price increases are well underway. It would be really interesting to watch a grand battle between two customers main traits - laziness/brand stickiness versus rational desire to find a better deal. I am with the later, as my personal online purchases share on AMZN came from around 50% to around 5% recently.

    Yet laziness can prevail, at least for some time. In this case we would observe a period of substantially improved profitability coupled with not much diminished revenue growth. This may create another spike in stock price.

    Unless, of cause, they do some super grand stupid money wasting project like mobile phone, drones, or a tunnel from Poughkeepsie to Santa Monica.... Well, that can cause even grander stock price spite...
    Apr 18, 2014. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Secret Competitive Advantage And Payoff Characteristics [View article]
    Yes, that was my question to you. Pity, Google shopping did not work for you. I understand it became useful about three years ago. Before that there was Yahoo shopping, but now it is diminished.

    I use Google to compare prices among different stores. They used to list AMZN too, but it dropped some time ago, so I usually check AMZN separately. I suppose it is a sort of "cold war"....
    Apr 11, 2014. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Secret Competitive Advantage And Payoff Characteristics [View article]
    Thank you for the explanation. Question to you, as 3P seller on AMZN. Are you allowed to market and/or sell through other channels, like Ebay, or Google Shopping?
    Apr 11, 2014. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Secret Competitive Advantage And Payoff Characteristics [View article]
    You may be correct or not, I do not know these specific tax rules to the extend I can discuss them here. Yet, if you check all these sites, they indeed sell tax free. This is the fact. It is what it is. Some time ago, AMZN also was selling tax fee. Maybe they were breaking the law. Maybe these sites are breaking the law right now. But it is what it is. Does it create a competitive advantage? You guess. Does it make some AMZN shareholders uncomfortable? Well... If you are one of those, you can fight for AMZN and try to report me to authorities. )) If you just care about me being in compliance with law, then thank you very much, I absolutely will check what I need to file. Yet be assured, I will continue to buy from those sites, not from AMZN.
    Apr 11, 2014. 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Secret Competitive Advantage And Payoff Characteristics [View article]
    Just an empirical observation. I have been doing a large renovation project on my house. Bought all types of stuff on Internet, from bath tubs to handles and nails. AMZN only got about 5% of my total orders, as prices were simply uncompetitive. One order I made on AMZN was because of promise of fast delivery, and they missed on that.

    The best way to find the cheapest stuff is to search on Google shopping, and then browse through several best offering choosing the best combination of price, delivery time, and specific discounts. All was tax free. All was free delivery. AMZN charged taxes.

    After talking to several shops, I got the understanding of their business model. They are usually small, and physically operate in one state. No storage facilities, no showrooms, just an office, and computers - very small overhead. They are usually specialized, and have extremely good choice of the goods they are selling. Their expertise in that set of good is unmatched by a general store, be it WMT or AMZN. Support is online or over the phone, response to the customers is much better than on AMZN. Then, the system is connected to the manufacturers, and vast majority of the stuff is shipped from manufacturer's warehouses. Delivery time varies from 4-5 days to a couple of weeks, if an item is on special order.

    This to me is the true e-commerce. It would be really interesting to watch how this distribution chain would compete with AMZN, but, as of now, I have a feeling AMZN getting by mostly because size and brand recognition...
    Apr 11, 2014. 09:06 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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