anopenmind

Agriculture Stocks May Be In for a Fertile Future

Weak product demand for full Y2009 planting seasons, following by another year of such? Do farmers really go for two, perhaps more years of less fertilizers? If so, why have they used so much in years past? While I sold my Mosaic stake to buy into China Green Ag and Yongye International early August (and happy with such), am keeping my POT (the kind for the soil), trusting early demand for early spring 2010 will come; and come, why not?

Cramer's Lightning Round - Don't Penalize UPS for Being Conservative (8/13/09)

Cramer began trashing POT early May 2008 and only 15 months later, bam, he's going bonkers over it, being a few months late in supporting such. Do wonder if his staff has even studied CGA and advised the man CGA's "organic" products are not the same as POT's stuff. I'm intrigued with CGA's R&D in their greenhouses and their distribution network into small villages (= small farmers and home gardeners who may have higher degree of desire to use organic fertilizers vs larger farms)

I own both POT and CGA, even MOS and YGII. YGII makes nutrients that are added to stuff like potash to enhance yields. Another + for YGII is their distribution, which increased from 3,500 independently-owned retail stores earlier this year to 5,000.

China has 20% of world's population within relatively farmable area too small for such; thus, they produce 33% of world's fertilizer and consume 35% of world's stuff (bit out-of-date 2005 #'s; likely higher today). China's use of organic fertilizer is about half of other advanced world nations (50/50 vs chemical fertilizers). Push is on to greatly increase ratio of organic stuff.

No, Jim. You don't have to go to China to buy an Ag, but might be advisable.

The Silvinet Deal Continues to Hit Potash and Mosaic

Wonder the capacity for Silvinit in delivering noted 850,000 tonnes ot potash to India during time frame of the contract with India? Is this 100% new sales volume or some % of additional supply to India? How many extra tonnes of potash and incentive does Silvinit have to sell elsewhere at $460 or even $530 to $560 range noted?

June 24, 2009 (Bloomberg) -- K+S AG, Europe’s largest producer of potash, cut its 2009 and 2010 forecast for worldwide sales of the crop nutrient as demand from farmers falls. Sales by volume will total 40 million tons this year and 50 million tons in 2010. If Silvinit's deal is for near-term full delivery, the contract = perhaps 2% max of full Y2009 demand. If Silvinit has not other extra capacity to supply at sub $600 pricing, will that 2% max result in a 25-28% world drop in pricing remainder of Y2009?

Is Monsanto a Template for Agribusiness?

..."the entire ag sector represented by the fund (MOO) have been languishing in a trading range since last fall."...Hello. Has not most other segment funds languished since last fall? Still, when we look at major individual stocks in the fund, any that have not performed well in past, have pretty good balanced sheets today, and very likely will perform well during next several years? This segment is not the U.S. autos, airlines, nor many other segments that may need years before getting out of ruts. Perhaps Y2009 less product will be consumed, as population continues to grow, but Y2010 and beyond?

Potash Continues to Shake off Bad News

Been almost a year since Jim Cramer starting bashing fertilizers. Other "experts" continue the same drumbeat. No matter how they slice it, dice it; less fertilizer use short-term leads to less crop yield. Crop demand won't = same % reduction in fertilizer use. At some point in time; perhaps not until early spring 2010, but regardless when, there will be strong demand for fertilizers to increase yield to supply demand. What is alternative?

Time for Fertilizer Stocks?

Jim Cramer started bashing Ags almost a year ago. Since then, other "experts" are up, down, up, down on Ags. Never seen another segment where "experts" are so erratic with their "expert" advise.

I figure Russia can not contiually supply enough potash to drive the world's price low and keep it there, as "experts" have always reminded us the tight supply controlled by few + growing demand, perhaps not so much this planting season, but early spring 2010? At some point in time, Potash price may be headed toward $400, once predicted by Morningstar. What other stocks to better hold?

2009 Will Be Rough for Fertilizer Companies, Turnaround in 2010

Citigroup Global Markets analyst says farmers going on a "fertilizer holiday"? What kinda corn has this guy been eating? A farmer has certain amount of acreage to plant & harvest. He/she has certain fixed costs, like value of equipment & fuel and personnel to plow, cultivate, and harvest the fixed amount of acreage. He is gonna use less fertilizer so he can harvest less amount of crops, increasing his costs, decreasing his profits? Also, what year was the last "fertilizer holiday:?

Cramer's Stop Trading! Is Obama's Honeymoon Over? (1/7/09)

Another possible reason Monsanto is performing; Ag's in general. Jan 9 WSJ "Stocks in the News" and "The Good News". Of four listed, Deere +5.9% Thurs close, and note "Bernstein Research said the farm-machinery firm should perform well this year and next, predicting the market for agriculture products will be stronger than expected". Well, perhaps "experts" expecting people to stop eating? If Deere is to do well, why not Monsanto, POT, MOS, others?

How Will Fortune Magazine's 10 Stock Picks for 2009 Fare?

As to....POT stock has already recovered more than 50% from its bottom, which leads me to believe that any further appreciation in this stock’s value will be short lived....."stock's value will be short lived"? Why? What is to keep it from going back to $200+ of last year, perhaps finally hitting the $400 Moningstar once predicted?

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

I now realize how much sway Jim Cramer has on stock prices, having started his doomsday jabs at Ag's few months ago. One statement a month ago had him positive on Potash; then, negative, leaving one wondering "what did he mean?". Personal gain for Cramer? Analysts, including Morningstar, had POT tracking toward $410 few months ago; then, $270; now, who knows. Others this week said "farmers won't get bank loans for planting season", striving to drive Ag's further downward. However, Reuters reports: Rural banks in U.S. farm country are not freezing credit to customers like large money center banks, offering a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economy, industry experts said on Thursday. Rural banks are able to do so because they rely on core deposits for funding rather than commercial financing from Wall Street investors and have largely steered clear of the subprime housing loans. Farmers have made good profits and have solid credit with their farm and equipment assets...and, people still gotta eat. Ag's are not similar to segments like autos, airlines, retailers. There is always the core growing demand. Despite doom & gloom, I'm staying put with Pot, Mos, Agu, Mon.

Potash Corp. Stock Undervalued

Oh my goodness. I read a week ago the almighty wizard, Jim Cramer said Ag fertilizers, like POT, may drop 80-90% below their recent highs...for POT, that would be the $241 high. Does not the "mad man" know all about all?

Fannie & Freddie Bailout? - Fast Money Recap (9/5/08)

Maybe I've not had enough coffee this morning. What does this mean: Jeff Macke said to take off the Potash (POT) trade.

Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?

Does the amount of continued slide of corn prices equal amount of reduction in acreage planted and equal amount of potash demand? In other words, is it reasonable to say price of Potash & other fertilizers stocks, same 38% lower than 3 months ago, parallel their projected sales and profits through next spring's planting season?

In Support of Potash Corp.'s Projected 2008 Gross Margin Increase

I too am believer in Potash, as I am with Mosaic & Agruim + Monsanto. Am not aware of any sector with better #'s and multi-year outlook than the Ag fertilizers, as a group. So, what is it that Jim Cramer knows that keeps him negative on Potash and such, which in turn drives many investors who do not seek knowledge, but simply listen to the Mad guy and "sell"?

Skechers: Ignoring Obvious Value

Appears few who invest dare investigate the companies considered. If one takes a few minutes to look thoroughly through Croc's product offering, one might be surprised to find other footwear than simply the colored stuff w/holes, and all with the patented bottoms that have value. Oh my goodness! Even apparel, backpacks, and stuff? Innovation? Won't find a more product-innovated corp. Mgt verbal ability? Poor. Wall St loves the dog & pony shows. Croc mgt does lack such. Sell the $4.67 stock, up 10% Fri? (up simply cause some learned Gates Foundation owns million shares, not because they found above noted info by studying) Might as well ride it out. May go under, but never know. Year from now, maybe more will see there is value beyond speculation.