anopenmind

Time for Fertilizer Stocks?

Jim Cramer started bashing Ags almost a year ago. Since then, other "experts" are up, down, up, down on Ags. Never seen another segment where "experts" are so erratic with their "expert" advise.

I figure Russia can not contiually supply enough potash to drive the world's price low and keep it there, as "experts" have always reminded us the tight supply controlled by few + growing demand, perhaps not so much this planting season, but early spring 2010? At some point in time, Potash price may be headed toward $400, once predicted by Morningstar. What other stocks to better hold?

2009 Will Be Rough for Fertilizer Companies, Turnaround in 2010

Citigroup Global Markets analyst says farmers going on a "fertilizer holiday"? What kinda corn has this guy been eating? A farmer has certain amount of acreage to plant & harvest. He/she has certain fixed costs, like value of equipment & fuel and personnel to plow, cultivate, and harvest the fixed amount of acreage. He is gonna use less fertilizer so he can harvest less amount of crops, increasing his costs, decreasing his profits? Also, what year was the last "fertilizer holiday:?

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

I now realize how much sway Jim Cramer has on stock prices, having started his doomsday jabs at Ag's few months ago. One statement a month ago had him positive on Potash; then, negative, leaving one wondering "what did he mean?". Personal gain for Cramer? Analysts, including Morningstar, had POT tracking toward $410 few months ago; then, $270; now, who knows. Others this week said "farmers won't get bank loans for planting season", striving to drive Ag's further downward. However, Reuters reports: Rural banks in U.S. farm country are not freezing credit to customers like large money center banks, offering a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy economy, industry experts said on Thursday. Rural banks are able to do so because they rely on core deposits for funding rather than commercial financing from Wall Street investors and have largely steered clear of the subprime housing loans. Farmers have made good profits and have solid credit with their farm and equipment assets...and, people still gotta eat. Ag's are not similar to segments like autos, airlines, retailers. There is always the core growing demand. Despite doom & gloom, I'm staying put with Pot, Mos, Agu, Mon.

UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again

April 24 Morningstar gave POT as "consider selling" price of $405. All things considered, appears most consider it soon to be worth far more than the $209 July 18; "soon" not being out to 2012 when added capacity could be brought on stream, all while demand grows. "Finite stuff from the ground" seems likely investor choice as USA may be in multi-year economic drought, while larger populated nations prosper with internal demand & prosperity.