Scared Stiff

Dollar Update: A Contrarian View

I'm not saying you're wrong... but I'm curious to know why you think all those things you listed in the last paragraph, other than that it's the contrarian view. "Just doing the opposite of the obvious" seems like a good way to get hit by a car, or drowning in your bathtub.

One Basic Portfolio, 5 ETFs

Are you sure you want to invest like Harvard? Losing $11 Billion can be a tough pill for anyone to swallow.

Unsettling Trends in Treasury Bond, Dollar and Commodity ETFs

This market does not appear to me to be indecisive at all. Look at a chart of pretty much anything from 10/08-11/08. THAT'S what indecision looks like.

FINRA Fires Next Shot in War Against Leveraged ETFs

Ha ha, I never claimed the inverse ETFs are a good investment. A good play in the very short term, yes, but not a good investment. Even so, you will never lose more than what you put up.

A Basic ETF Portfolio for September

Aren't you concerned about DBC's possible CFTC troubles?

FINRA Fires Next Shot in War Against Leveraged ETFs

"I’ve seen people who would never short stocks in their lives, use inverse ETFs and not think twice."

Well of course!! With an inverse ETF, you will never lose more than your principal. That makes them inherently safer vehicles than shorting.

Major Market Turning Point Ahead (Part I)

Good insights, I enjoyed reading this article. One point I would argue with, however:

"If you were to review the blogs and postings of die hard gold bug analysts you would find that they have all opined at one time or another that when the public is widely involved in gold that that would be the top. Well this has happened...and without a commensurate bubble run in the metal."

I don't think this is entirely accurate. The commercials I see are all pushing opportunities to sell gold, not purchase it. The public has been very much involved on the sell side, but not the buy side. I'm not sure that's what the bloggers had in mind when they made the statements you refer to.

No Words from the CFTC About the Regulatory Elephant in the Commodities Room

I don't believe that Gensler "gets it" at all. What he's done here is, he has plucked the lowest possible hanging fruit, and left the swaps market wholly intact; the market which dwarfs the level of trading of all the DB ETF products. Instead of solving any problem, real or perceived, he's again screwed the retail investor, and left his buddies at Goldman Sachs free to do as they will.

BRIC Nations Attack the Dollar, But Status as Reserve Currency Is Secure, For Now

Dave, please elaborate on the problems which are being hidden.

On Bernanke, Gold and Housing

The tax increase isn't coming. No politician at this point will have the courage to try to shift the burden directly to the taxpayer. The only possible outcome now is, first, the elimination of the Dollar as the reserve currency, followed by national default. Let's just hope our military is up to the task.

Did 2008's $677 Billion Trade Deficit Cause the Recession?

The fact that so many people still believe the rest of the world "underconsumes" indicates just how far we have yet to go before our society comes to grips with reality. Until that happens, the ride is only going to get worse.

Let's Just Say It: Print More Money

Dirk, you are 100% correct. We just need to keep propping up the broken system, again and again, and just keep praying that we can perpetually put off the inevitable, or at least until we're no longer around to deal with the consequences. Who wants to make tough decisions when the easy way out is always so successful?

Gold: Recycling Threatens Demand-Supply Equation

Nowhereman-- I think you're confusing gold with gold-themed paper instruments. The great thing about ACTUAL gold is that there is no counter-party risk... a further reduction in the trust in financial institutions can only benefit the value of such an investment.

Gold Prices: Little Correlation with Its Utility

Better yet, what is the utility of Apple stock? Why would anyone pay anything for a stock which serves, literally, no purpose? Gold and non-dividend paying stocks are nothing more than a bet that people will at some point be willing to pay more for it than what you paid for it. At least gold doesn't depend on the honesty of clearly dishonest people to maintain its value.

Oil Breaks Below $38; Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (12/18/08)

Why is it always that when commodities become overbought, it's because of manipulation, and when they become oversold, it's market forces. Yet, when bank stocks become overbought, it's because of market forces, and manipulation when they become oversold?