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  • 25 Underperforming Stocks With Bullish Options Sentiment [View article]
    NPD is clearly overvalued now.

    Currently their PE is over 70. Compare this to a PE of less than 15 for US drug store chains and a PE of of about 9 of one of NPD's chinese competitors, CJJD.

    And even before NPD reported last quarters disappointing results its PE was more than 20.
    Jan 9, 2011. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Jo-Jo Drug Stores: Great Fundamentals for Growth [View article]
    I am also very bullish on this stock. Although I think the forward PE is not 4.7 any more but around 9 instead, than to the last dilution of 5.3 million shares. This is higher than the PE of many other chinese small caps.

    Still CCJD's PE is a lot lower than the PE of its competitors, in particular the PE of the dividend paying NPD. If CJJD was at half the valuation of NPD then it's stock price would be about 17 dollar. And if it had the same valuation as an drug store in the US, with less growth potential, then its share price would be about 6 dollar.

    I took the effort to listen to the 3rd quarter conference call. Based on that I remember that they sell in the fourth quarter (the cold season) more than in the other quarters. And some shops they opened recently will start to generate profits. So there I don't worry about 4th quarter sales.

    They have enough cash to open at least 20 more shops, probably they have enough cash to open 30 more shops, so their growth strategy is well financed.

    In another article on SeekingAlpha I read that the unofficial income in urban China is much higher than the official income. And that the official growth numbers are below the real growth, at least in urban China.

    Despite all these upside facts the stock price has gone down a lot, although it seems to have bottomed now.
    Jan 9, 2011. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macro Call of the Year: Buy Chinese Micro Caps [View article]
    At the moment the two cheapest stocks are CIL and CCCL. CIL is already mentioned in your article and CCCL is mentioned in one other the comments.

    Not mentioned but also very cheap is NFEC.

    The nice thing about CIL and NFEC is also that these can be called "environment friendly" stocks. These two companies facilitate energy savings.
    Jan 5, 2011. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyPeople Fruit Juice: Sky High Stock Opportunity for Value Investors [View article]
    I think the forward PE is much higher, around 8 instead of 5, thanks to dilution. Still a good opportunity, see my blog:
    Dec 28, 2010. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Bulkers Still Looks Good After 3Q Earnings [View article]
    I think the author is right that SB is (still) a buy, see my comparison between 9 shipping companies at
    Dec 19, 2010. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMCON Distributing: Financially Poised for Another Solid Year Ahead [View article]
    Limited risk of dilution ? Yahoo reports about 2.75 million as management costs, which is a significant proportion of the market cap, currently 43 million. DIT's management costs are greater than those of other microcaps.
    Dec 11, 2010. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why New Energy Systems Is Likely to Benefit From Apple's Rally [View article]
    My concern is the value of the deal with Apple. What's the value of a deal with Apple if the world is moving to Android phones ?
    Nov 5, 2010. 03:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Zimbabwe Defeated Hyperinflation [View article]
    I like your simple, common sense, reasoning: "printing money" can not generate growth. For me it is still a mystery why inflation is not picking up yet.
    Aug 2, 2010. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BP About to Fail? [View article]
    It might be good to invest in such a fallen angel. If BP were traded at similar PE levels as competitors the share price would be twice the current price. The company's value has decreased much more than the top estimate of the costs of the oil spill.
    Jun 10, 2010. 03:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare ETF Survey: U.S. Edges Global Alternatives [View article]
    There is another explanation for the volatility difference between IXJ and DBR:

    DBR selects shares based on realized dividends. IXJ is a market cap based fund. Scientific research claims that such a dividend fund does better in the long run than a similar market cap fund.

    The higher long term returns come at a price: "cheap" shares, for example shares with high dividends, low PE, etc are usually more volatile than the market as a whole.
    Feb 6, 2010. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Chart Should Influence Your Future Asset Allocation [View article]
    The chart measures World GDP in terms of purchasing power. As an investor I am only interested in nominal value instead of purchasing value. When the graph is redrawn in terms of nominal value the decline of the developed countries will look much less pronounced.
    Jan 12, 2010. 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Mining: 5 Investment Opportunities [View article]
    CCJ is also one of the very few uranium miners making a profit in 2008, making it for many investors the only choice.

    I am bullish on nuclear power, we simply can not produce enough solar power in the future and oil/coal is too polluting.

    Maybe the uranium price will go up when USEC is done with recycling. That could be CCJ's bet when they bought uranium under their cost price.
    May 26, 2009. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Companies Smart to Reject Takeover Offers? [View article]
    Getty images also got an offer when it was really bottomming in January, just before the current offer, of about 1.5 billion. I don't know whether they have refused it, I think it did not go for other reasons. But really, that offer was so low that they should have refused it.
    Apr 6, 2008. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment