Van Gastel

The Sweet Smell of Solar Values

Great tip on Systaic. What a lovely company, even though car roof solar systems are a bit "science fiction" at this moment, with this company you get these "Robinsons" for free. They are also the frontrunners in the consolidation wave going on in Germany. Come out of a recession in as great a shape as they are, only leaves one wonder what's ahead. Technically the picture is great for a big jump within days or weeks.

Want Solar Panels? China Will Pick Up the Tab

You can talk this up as much you like, there are no details, no timing. The report is too good to be true, it doesn't even make much economic or environmental sense, so it will turn out to be just that. It almost looks like "the plan" is only intended to make the solar companies fat, to create this shareprice runup. Now it's just waiting for who is going to head for the exits first, for any reason, general downturn, this or that "worse than expected", falling oil prices, taking profits etc. Volume simply indicates that we have a near term top, an overreaction, which will eventually be corrected, so move with extreme caution.

Solar Again Under Attack

I meant 63% up from 63€ at the close the previous day.

Solar Again Under Attack

Another baseless article, bad and baseless call to short on a very bad day.

In Germany all the solar shares are well up after Bosch announced it would buy Ersol, one of the larger German Solar players. Ersol is up 63% to nearly the bid price of 101€, from 63% at the close. Ersol, the second biggest solar cell manufacturer had a market cap of 3.6 Bio €, only after Q-Cells (comparable to first solar with thin film), which has a cap of 8.4€.

It was obvious to me that Ersol was lagging because of competition from our Chinese friends, even though they never even mentioned it.

Hold on, this could be the beginning of a bigger wave in consolidation.

Short this at your peril.

Marc

Solar Stocks Continue to Roll

Himanshu,

Understand your regret, but just be happy, and wait for the next opportunity, if there is one, rather than getting burned by running behind the facts. Going short is a very bad idea with these very volatile Chinese stock with a very big potential. Sit tight, and don't miss out the ride on the next leg of the bull run. If you really don't want to miss out, and you feel it's really going to go down, take a smaller position now and load up as it goes down. Point is, long is the only strategy here, unless we're in the stratosphere with PE's of well beyond 30+. CSIQ and SOLF are still around 10, way to go.

You could also short the higher PE shares like STP and FSLR and load up on the lower PE shares like CSIQ and SOLF. That way you're hedged, but you'll miss out on a lot of potential. But you know what, if you dare to go short, that show's you have a lot of courage, and this is really a chicken strategy, so follow the marbles strategy and go all out for the +.

I'm long CSIQ (from 19) and SOLF (from 18!), and boy, you need nerve to just sit tight and do nothing, but I'm convinced CSIQ is going much higher, only, it may be too soon. I'm looking for signs of the entire Chinese shares correction to shows signs of abating. I don't think it's far off, perhaps one more leg, but not more than that. If there is another leg, (hope not!) then make sure you're on the train. SOLF is another story, they caught me with a dilutive share action. Even so, I'm still looking for 20+.