steve west

International Exposure Helps Earnings, But Not Necessarily Domestic Market

good on ya Grace... that was nicely done. See aside from being stunningly good looking I can also be kind and balanced.

Friday's Rally: Just a Short-Squeeze?

last sentence should read bear market.. not beat market..
sorry- the charts in the background of your picture got me all flustered.

Friday's Rally: Just a Short-Squeeze?

Grace,
what is surprising is your continued propaganda about this "bear market"
I love the way you try to downplay anything
first of all the fact that gains were held at all after the rally on Friday would suggest a follow through and NOT a short squeeze.
a Short squeeze would have much higher volume- besides speculating on if this was a squeeze or not is pointless.
now to your point on the 109 members who responded to the survey.
Funny how only 30% said we are headed for a recession. However you, like the AP tend to focus on the negative. I hardly call 30% dowbeat.. are the other 70% just not factored in.
As Dick Green noted last week:
The economic data this past week, apart from housing, were undeniably good. In what is supposedly worsening recessionary conditions:

March retail sales were UP.

March industrial production was UP.

The March leading indicator index was UP.

None of these were particularly strong. Retail sales were up just 0.2%, industrial production 0.3%, and leading indicators 0.1%. But each was DOWN in February.

It is very noteworthy that not only did a further deterioration not occur, the trends actually reversed. These data all fly in the face of concerns of a sharp downturn in the economy.

This raises the prospect that the economy will hang on in reasonably good shape until fiscal and monetary stimulus provides a boost.
specifically on BofA they reported this:
Like many of its peers last week, Bank of America's report was bad. Net income plummeted 77% and the company provided a cautious-sounding outlook. Still, it appears that the market continues to embrace the "better-than-feared" approach as shares of BAC are little changed in premarket trading.

Separately, it is likely to go unreported today -- or least be under-reported -- that Bank of America's total loans and leases increased 21% in the first quarter. We don't know about the media's take on that (well, actually we do), but that's not the sign of a true credit crunch.
my point is that you need to recognize when you are just wrong.
with a fed funds rate at 2.25 and profits meeting or beating and guidance notably better then expected your call for a beat market just is not happening.

Many Investors Seem To Think the Worst Is Over

I have been listening to the same B.S. from people like you saying the worst is yet to come for some time now.. admit that you missed the boat, you dont know what you are talking about and join the party.
Sad to watch someone try to justify a losing position.
Sorry Joyce- and all the other weekend economists that come here- the worst is that you are missing out - but we will do fine without you

A new Bullish Divergence

good on Ya Paul..
I like the odds too. The Bears are just wrong on this one and frankly have been for over a month...

American Eagle Outfitters' Wings May Be Falling Off

I would love to see how you arrived at your DCF model. what are you using for WACC since AEO has no debt.. what are you using as terminal growth. MY DCF model calls for over 30. I think your numbers are biased to further your position.
I think AEO has bottomed out and I firmly believe that earnings will only get better from here. you buy when all the bad news is out..

Have We Bottomed Yet?

you cant say we have lower to go in financials and the market yet be bullish on retail.. it just does not work that way.
I think we have bottomed and I am long retail

Bottom Pickers, Rejoice: Opportunity Lies Next Year

the author is misguided. He is equating default rates to the stock market and he has 1. no idea when default rates will slow and 2 can not prove a direct correlation between default rates and market activity. Finally default rates and market rates are NEVER in sync.
the market is a leading indicator while corp. default rates are a lagging indicator - meaning that companies and homeowners default at capitulation stage - the market anticipates this and would correct 6 months early. the author is about one year off in his timing