Jim Hawthorne's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/173953/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/164648-adjusted-jobless-claims-suggest-recession-has-ended?source=feed#comment-702227 702227 The deeper one examines the employment picture, the worse it gets!
(See: www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../ )
There certainly is meaningful debate ongoing as to whether or not the recession has ended. But to attempt to use the Initial Jobless Claims as support for the recession's end at this point is truly silly!
Just we can't have an 'earning-less' recovery, so too is a 'job-less' recovery and "Alice in Wonderland" fantasy!]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 08:55:56 -0400 The deeper one examines the employment picture, the worse it gets!
(See: www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../ )
There certainly is meaningful debate ongoing as to whether or not the recession has ended. But to attempt to use the Initial Jobless Claims as support for the recession's end at this point is truly silly!
Just we can't have an 'earning-less' recovery, so too is a 'job-less' recovery and "Alice in Wonderland" fantasy!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164675-shorting-the-double-dip?source=feed#comment-702212 702212
With earnings season upon us, there is growing pessimism in the marketplace that a repeat of July is possible. As the Financial Times recently noted, the breadth of collapsed earnings is deep and pervasive; especially in the materials sector. The "wall of worry" may well be about to give way to the "slope of hope"!

If we do indeed enter a correction, there is a long way down before the S&P500 finds strong support at around 940! Whatever the outcome, the 'easy' money has already been made!]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 08:41:49 -0400
With earnings season upon us, there is growing pessimism in the marketplace that a repeat of July is possible. As the Financial Times recently noted, the breadth of collapsed earnings is deep and pervasive; especially in the materials sector. The "wall of worry" may well be about to give way to the "slope of hope"!

If we do indeed enter a correction, there is a long way down before the S&P500 finds strong support at around 940! Whatever the outcome, the 'easy' money has already been made!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146998-signs-of-recovery?source=feed#comment-593725 593725 As for initial jobless claims, let's remember that they last peaked back in springtime 2001; almost 2 years before we saw a true bull martket in equities!
Be nimble and flexible enough to play this stage of the rally up or down as it develops! "Buy and Hope" is a truly dangerous strategy at the stage! Good luck to all!]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 10:35:31 -0400 As for initial jobless claims, let's remember that they last peaked back in springtime 2001; almost 2 years before we saw a true bull martket in equities!
Be nimble and flexible enough to play this stage of the rally up or down as it develops! "Buy and Hope" is a truly dangerous strategy at the stage! Good luck to all!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149667-surprise-surprise-surprise-positive-economic-news-everywhere?source=feed#comment-593709 593709 We took welcome profits and moved back into cash on Friday in a move that was purely based on capital preservation! At this stage of the rally, we can make up for lost opportunities much more readily than we can make up for lost cash!
]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 10:25:34 -0400 We took welcome profits and moved back into cash on Friday in a move that was purely based on capital preservation! At this stage of the rally, we can make up for lost opportunities much more readily than we can make up for lost cash!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149662-where-will-all-the-sidelined-cash-be-invested?source=feed#comment-593692 593692 In this environment, we went back into 85% cash on Friday.
Once again, this is a market for the nimble and flexible trader. I look for leadership in tech, oils, the greens and the miners on the next leg up, but will short via the inverse ETF's if we see a correction here.
After a beautiful rally, capital preservation is once more on the agenda!]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 10:09:34 -0400 In this environment, we went back into 85% cash on Friday.
Once again, this is a market for the nimble and flexible trader. I look for leadership in tech, oils, the greens and the miners on the next leg up, but will short via the inverse ETF's if we see a correction here.
After a beautiful rally, capital preservation is once more on the agenda!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143156-in-defense-of-buy-and-hold?source=feed#comment-546733 546733
There is a huge difference between 'timing the market' and 'trend following' based on a combination of fundamental and technical analysis! While timing exact market tops and bottoms may be a fool's errand, recognizing trends through careful analysis is not, and watching the direction 5, 10,15,25,and 50 day moving averages will tell you most of what you need to know.

'Buy and Hold' cannot only be called a lazy man's strategy; it really is no strategy at all!]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 06:19:04 -0400
There is a huge difference between 'timing the market' and 'trend following' based on a combination of fundamental and technical analysis! While timing exact market tops and bottoms may be a fool's errand, recognizing trends through careful analysis is not, and watching the direction 5, 10,15,25,and 50 day moving averages will tell you most of what you need to know.

'Buy and Hold' cannot only be called a lazy man's strategy; it really is no strategy at all!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134867-party-like-it-s-1931?source=feed#comment-487420 487420
While comparisons between today and the 1930's are indeed riddled with critical differences, we also suspect that 'bottle-rocket' rallies like this one fly about as well as a grand piano when the steam goes out of them!]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 11:09:46 -0400
While comparisons between today and the 1930's are indeed riddled with critical differences, we also suspect that 'bottle-rocket' rallies like this one fly about as well as a grand piano when the steam goes out of them!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134883-bank-failures-not-a-significant-indicator?source=feed#comment-487411 487411
What is critical to us is not necessarily the news itself, but the only thing to note is the Mother Market's reaction to it! Trying to predict how the market will react has become a very risky business! We see time and time again the market's ability to shrug off news that would have been horrendous enough to cause a crash 24 months ago!!! ]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 11:03:00 -0400
What is critical to us is not necessarily the news itself, but the only thing to note is the Mother Market's reaction to it! Trying to predict how the market will react has become a very risky business! We see time and time again the market's ability to shrug off news that would have been horrendous enough to cause a crash 24 months ago!!! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133214-how-will-markets-react-to-mexico-s-swine-flu-panic?source=feed#comment-478587 478587 Mon, 27 Apr 2009 01:48:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132904-the-u-s-is-spending-its-way-out-of-the-recession?source=feed#comment-475353 475353
The "gamblers" today are both taking profits from the rally and shorting for a retest of the March lows. I would be extremely careful about diving into this frothy market at the present time!]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 05:45:17 -0400
The "gamblers" today are both taking profits from the rally and shorting for a retest of the March lows. I would be extremely careful about diving into this frothy market at the present time!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132877-interview-with-peter-schiff-reflating-the-bubble?source=feed#comment-475345 475345
Peter's opinions are always a valuable addition to the ongoing inflation/deflation debate here at SA.

We should note, however that the current contraction is both global and synchronized; and that both the US and China appear thus far to be coping far better than Europe, Asia (ex China), Latin America, or the CIS/Baltic region.

Peter's prediction may well be come true in the long term; it may just be a matter of timing. Short term we may very well experience a deflationary period where the forces of increased savings, reduced consumption and price declines stave off the inevitable inflationary run-up.

I would look far a well-tested bottoming process to end prior to jumping into any commodities save precious metals, which seem to do fine in both deflationary or inflationary periods!



]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 05:33:52 -0400
Peter's opinions are always a valuable addition to the ongoing inflation/deflation debate here at SA.

We should note, however that the current contraction is both global and synchronized; and that both the US and China appear thus far to be coping far better than Europe, Asia (ex China), Latin America, or the CIS/Baltic region.

Peter's prediction may well be come true in the long term; it may just be a matter of timing. Short term we may very well experience a deflationary period where the forces of increased savings, reduced consumption and price declines stave off the inevitable inflationary run-up.

I would look far a well-tested bottoming process to end prior to jumping into any commodities save precious metals, which seem to do fine in both deflationary or inflationary periods!



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131205-the-case-against-re-regulation?source=feed#comment-464854 464854
You write that, "The answer is corporate social responsibility based on moral business decisions with the interest of the entire economy in mind."

You seem to be advocating a sort of "faith-based" economic system relying upon a corporate leadership elite totally made over and remodeled; sort of a bizarre version of the 'Stepford Wives'?

Yes, there was poor oversight; there was also blind faith in Adam Smith's 'unseen hand', and a mistaken notion that deregulated markets would 'naturally' regulate themselves. Please, don't set us up for a sequel!]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 09:11:44 -0400
You write that, "The answer is corporate social responsibility based on moral business decisions with the interest of the entire economy in mind."

You seem to be advocating a sort of "faith-based" economic system relying upon a corporate leadership elite totally made over and remodeled; sort of a bizarre version of the 'Stepford Wives'?

Yes, there was poor oversight; there was also blind faith in Adam Smith's 'unseen hand', and a mistaken notion that deregulated markets would 'naturally' regulate themselves. Please, don't set us up for a sequel!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130839-time-to-buy-volatility?source=feed#comment-462606 462606
On Apr 14 09:01 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

......."The VIX is no longer interesting or meaningful..."]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:24:36 -0400
On Apr 14 09:01 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

......."The VIX is no longer interesting or meaningful..."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130839-time-to-buy-volatility?source=feed#comment-462527 462527
The VIX will bounce from support. Prudence dictates profit-taking!]]> Tue, 14 Apr 2009 08:52:49 -0400
The VIX will bounce from support. Prudence dictates profit-taking!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125560-dynamism-and-innovation-in-finance-the-path-to-future-bailouts?source=feed#comment-423696 423696
While the Financial Sector may well claim to be both Dynamic and Innovative, all I see is a tired old whore gleefully struggling into a new Wal-Mart Lyrca mini-skirt so as to once again hit the streets as the new and improved 'Miss Dynamic & Innovative'.

Yes, the poor old dear will require yet another bail-out.]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 17:54:25 -0400
While the Financial Sector may well claim to be both Dynamic and Innovative, all I see is a tired old whore gleefully struggling into a new Wal-Mart Lyrca mini-skirt so as to once again hit the streets as the new and improved 'Miss Dynamic & Innovative'.

Yes, the poor old dear will require yet another bail-out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125729-mark-to-market-a-rule-that-begs-to-be-broken?source=feed#comment-423627 423627
This article wants to treat the symptom rather than the disease. Replace Mark-to-Market with some other more refined vehicle if necessary, but please; you don't throw the baby out with the bathwater!

I respectfully beg to differ that Mark-to-Market simply isn't working. In most cases it is! As for 'toxic assets', or assets that have fallen so low as to be virtually unmarketable, I would suggest that the problem there goes way beyond any mere revision as you suggest.

Until we have something better, then let's not just blindly hand valuation back to the very banks that caused the problem in the first place!]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 17:15:25 -0400
This article wants to treat the symptom rather than the disease. Replace Mark-to-Market with some other more refined vehicle if necessary, but please; you don't throw the baby out with the bathwater!

I respectfully beg to differ that Mark-to-Market simply isn't working. In most cases it is! As for 'toxic assets', or assets that have fallen so low as to be virtually unmarketable, I would suggest that the problem there goes way beyond any mere revision as you suggest.

Until we have something better, then let's not just blindly hand valuation back to the very banks that caused the problem in the first place!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125695-the-economy-is-not-in-free-fall?source=feed#comment-423596 423596
And on this you declare more good news to come, an end to the recession, that recovery will be slow, and the
at if it weren't for Obama, the markets would be flying??? And your evidence is used cars and January close-out sales? What pap!

Look; increasing employment, increasing global sales, increased investment in R&D, and improved earnings in the global arena will provide the impetus to end the recession and get us out of this quagmire.

You seem to think that the old consumer-driven, excess consumption oriented economic model will continue to work forever in today's rapidly shifting geo-political environment! You need to get out more often! ]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 16:38:15 -0400
And on this you declare more good news to come, an end to the recession, that recovery will be slow, and the
at if it weren't for Obama, the markets would be flying??? And your evidence is used cars and January close-out sales? What pap!

Look; increasing employment, increasing global sales, increased investment in R&D, and improved earnings in the global arena will provide the impetus to end the recession and get us out of this quagmire.

You seem to think that the old consumer-driven, excess consumption oriented economic model will continue to work forever in today's rapidly shifting geo-political environment! You need to get out more often! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125395-not-out-of-the-bear-market-yet?source=feed#comment-422524 422524
But there are some troubling signs in today's tape:
1. for much of the day, the miners and IT software (net) were doing the most heavy lifting; this dispite falling copper, zinc and lead spots; they fell off in the afternoon; not a good sign.
2. the Banking & Financial Sectors appeared to weaken noticeably into the close. Until we see clear leaders emerge, those two bad boys MUST contribute stability to any sustainable rally, IMO.
3. the oils & energy are weak and weakening...
4. where is the strengthening volume? This is, perhaps the most troubling indicator of all.

I found it to be a disappointing day, and the words of caution from the author and commenters above is sound advice!]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 22:15:57 -0400
But there are some troubling signs in today's tape:
1. for much of the day, the miners and IT software (net) were doing the most heavy lifting; this dispite falling copper, zinc and lead spots; they fell off in the afternoon; not a good sign.
2. the Banking & Financial Sectors appeared to weaken noticeably into the close. Until we see clear leaders emerge, those two bad boys MUST contribute stability to any sustainable rally, IMO.
3. the oils & energy are weak and weakening...
4. where is the strengthening volume? This is, perhaps the most troubling indicator of all.

I found it to be a disappointing day, and the words of caution from the author and commenters above is sound advice!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125375-how-to-know-a-bottom-when-you-don-t-see-one?source=feed#comment-421985 421985
Attempting to pick an exact 'bottom' is about the most dangerous pastime a trader can engage in! Market bottoms are NOT a singular event! Market bottoming is a process whereby deeply wounded markets are healed through price and time!

Thus we see again and again and again those 'double-bottoms' and 'triple-bottoms' over and over and over again; each false alarm bringing with it the specter of greater and greater 'whipsaw degradation' of portfolios as short-term profits are taken and trailing-stops are filled.

Forget about calling bottoms! Look for those higher highs and higher lows on increasing volume and improved fundamentals and we'll all do just fine! ]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 13:35:50 -0400
Attempting to pick an exact 'bottom' is about the most dangerous pastime a trader can engage in! Market bottoms are NOT a singular event! Market bottoming is a process whereby deeply wounded markets are healed through price and time!

Thus we see again and again and again those 'double-bottoms' and 'triple-bottoms' over and over and over again; each false alarm bringing with it the specter of greater and greater 'whipsaw degradation' of portfolios as short-term profits are taken and trailing-stops are filled.

Forget about calling bottoms! Look for those higher highs and higher lows on increasing volume and improved fundamentals and we'll all do just fine! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125346-canadian-banks-may-be-risk-averse-but-they-re-not-immune?source=feed#comment-421913 421913
While Canada remains dependent on the US economy (and who is not?), Canada has also made strong efforts to de-couple from strict dependence on the US over the last 15 years, with considerable success. The danger is that there has been a 'new' dependency on the Pacific Rim to replace it.

Canadian currency is much more 'resource-industry dependent' than it is dependent upon government programs, policy or manipulation. As go basic materials, so goes the Canadian economy and with it, the Canadian banks. It is a truism that Canada's economy is much less 'Financialized' than that of the US and as such is more independent of the machinations and risks of that sector in the US.

It is also true that while US banks contract and struggle to raise capital, Canadian banks have generally been expanding their global reach and diversification.

Your recommendation to pause until the depth and breadth of the Canadian recession is determined before rushing to invest in Canadian Banks is very timely and reasonable.]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 12:37:57 -0400
While Canada remains dependent on the US economy (and who is not?), Canada has also made strong efforts to de-couple from strict dependence on the US over the last 15 years, with considerable success. The danger is that there has been a 'new' dependency on the Pacific Rim to replace it.

Canadian currency is much more 'resource-industry dependent' than it is dependent upon government programs, policy or manipulation. As go basic materials, so goes the Canadian economy and with it, the Canadian banks. It is a truism that Canada's economy is much less 'Financialized' than that of the US and as such is more independent of the machinations and risks of that sector in the US.

It is also true that while US banks contract and struggle to raise capital, Canadian banks have generally been expanding their global reach and diversification.

Your recommendation to pause until the depth and breadth of the Canadian recession is determined before rushing to invest in Canadian Banks is very timely and reasonable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125198-the-markets-will-recover-when-our-fear-abates?source=feed#comment-421073 421073
And our fear will abate when? Oh! Yes, I forgot! If our fears are so irrational, then we certainly don't need a reason to abandon them, do we!

That is what makes this article so facile and silly. The truth of the matter is that our very rational fears (Larry House is right!) will abate when the many-faceted causes of those fears abate... Not before.

We're due for a bear market rally, yes; we are not out of the woods yet! Not by a long sea-mile! And those bears are still very hungry!

]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 18:42:12 -0400
And our fear will abate when? Oh! Yes, I forgot! If our fears are so irrational, then we certainly don't need a reason to abandon them, do we!

That is what makes this article so facile and silly. The truth of the matter is that our very rational fears (Larry House is right!) will abate when the many-faceted causes of those fears abate... Not before.

We're due for a bear market rally, yes; we are not out of the woods yet! Not by a long sea-mile! And those bears are still very hungry!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124969-opportunities-in-the-s-p-500-s-price-wimps?source=feed#comment-419899 419899 GNW was trading at about $16.00 six short months ago...
also, of the 11 analysts covering, 6 have issued downgrades. Current estimates are down to $-0.86/share loss Q1 with sales growth @ -11% YOY.
be careful!

On another note, 'penny stocks' have gained new currency as many stocks that were trading at $5.00 and up are now trading in the $1.00 and lower range.

Perhaps 'penny stocks' should now be defined as stocks trading under $0.25? Just a thought... :)]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:07:55 -0400 GNW was trading at about $16.00 six short months ago...
also, of the 11 analysts covering, 6 have issued downgrades. Current estimates are down to $-0.86/share loss Q1 with sales growth @ -11% YOY.
be careful!

On another note, 'penny stocks' have gained new currency as many stocks that were trading at $5.00 and up are now trading in the $1.00 and lower range.

Perhaps 'penny stocks' should now be defined as stocks trading under $0.25? Just a thought... :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124924-weekly-outlook-less-is-more?source=feed#comment-419264 419264
This seems to be accepted a priori; without a scrap of evidence in the rest of the article. It would seem to me that we will have to see movement towards a sustainable economy BEFORE we will have any recovery!

Until we see a lot more than you're showing us, we will continue to experience less and less.]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 12:12:06 -0400
This seems to be accepted a priori; without a scrap of evidence in the rest of the article. It would seem to me that we will have to see movement towards a sustainable economy BEFORE we will have any recovery!

Until we see a lot more than you're showing us, we will continue to experience less and less.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124827-why-this-downturn-won-t-be-like-1929?source=feed#comment-419012 419012
Back then, much of the spending was on public works programs and projects that stimulated employment, consumer spending, and improved the economic infrastructure. Rural Electrification, the Civil Works Administration, Public Works Association and the NIRA Program, the Tennessee Vally Authority, Civilian Conservation Corps, Home Owner's Loan Corporation (later to become the FHA), Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC), were all programs that at the very least left us with some tangible improvements.

By comparison, it appears that through our bail-outs, we would rather shovel money into a bottomless pit!]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 09:38:51 -0400
Back then, much of the spending was on public works programs and projects that stimulated employment, consumer spending, and improved the economic infrastructure. Rural Electrification, the Civil Works Administration, Public Works Association and the NIRA Program, the Tennessee Vally Authority, Civilian Conservation Corps, Home Owner's Loan Corporation (later to become the FHA), Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC), were all programs that at the very least left us with some tangible improvements.

By comparison, it appears that through our bail-outs, we would rather shovel money into a bottomless pit!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124897-some-good-news-economic-rate-of-decline-is-slowing?source=feed#comment-418978 418978
We don't need 'good news' any more than we need 'bad news'! Just present us with the facts! We can make up our own minds from there, thanks!]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 09:14:24 -0400
We don't need 'good news' any more than we need 'bad news'! Just present us with the facts! We can make up our own minds from there, thanks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124878-experts-weigh-in-on-the-shape-and-size-of-this-recession?source=feed#comment-418934 418934 “housing must hit bottom at some point,”
"... not willing to predict when that will happen."
“Before you know it, the stock market, and the residential real-estate market, too, will be on their way back up again — just don’t ask when.”

Pessimists on the one hand and optimists on the other; if you interview any 6 people waiting at a bus stop you'll learn about as much!

The blind continue to lead the blind! We'd all be better off just listening to what the market is telling us and ignoring the incessant babbling of the 'experts'!

]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 08:56:14 -0400 “housing must hit bottom at some point,”
"... not willing to predict when that will happen."
“Before you know it, the stock market, and the residential real-estate market, too, will be on their way back up again — just don’t ask when.”

Pessimists on the one hand and optimists on the other; if you interview any 6 people waiting at a bus stop you'll learn about as much!

The blind continue to lead the blind! We'd all be better off just listening to what the market is telling us and ignoring the incessant babbling of the 'experts'!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124231-comparing-costs-of-green-stocks-vs-costs-of-green-funds?source=feed#comment-418760 418760 GRN, GEX, PUW, FAN, PZD, QCLN, EVX, NLR, PKN, PWND, ICLN.

An addition to expense ratios another added value to ETF's is in their enhanced liquidity over many Mutual Funds. In today's volatile trading environment this is distinct advantage.

On Mar 07 10:26 AM stockdoc123 wrote:

> Where is the best place to find AE ETFs?
>
> I think ETFs are a good way to balance risk -]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 02:01:43 -0400 GRN, GEX, PUW, FAN, PZD, QCLN, EVX, NLR, PKN, PWND, ICLN.

An addition to expense ratios another added value to ETF's is in their enhanced liquidity over many Mutual Funds. In today's volatile trading environment this is distinct advantage.

On Mar 07 10:26 AM stockdoc123 wrote:

> Where is the best place to find AE ETFs?
>
> I think ETFs are a good way to balance risk -]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124777-weekly-good-news-roundup?source=feed#comment-418739 418739 I must say that I respect and commend your courageous optimism at a time when it is so easy to be pessimistic and negative, as is the trend.

While at the moment I can't quite bring myself to share your rosy optimism, and question your methodology, I do hope that you'll keep your 'good news' articles coming! God knows, we need your smile!

One of these days, you're going to be right; and when that day comes I sincerely hope that you, me, and every SA reader will be at 0% cash and 100% fully invested long in stocks!]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 01:10:27 -0400 I must say that I respect and commend your courageous optimism at a time when it is so easy to be pessimistic and negative, as is the trend.

While at the moment I can't quite bring myself to share your rosy optimism, and question your methodology, I do hope that you'll keep your 'good news' articles coming! God knows, we need your smile!

One of these days, you're going to be right; and when that day comes I sincerely hope that you, me, and every SA reader will be at 0% cash and 100% fully invested long in stocks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124746-global-markets-in-review-another-plunge-of-equities-ongoing-flight-to-safety?source=feed#comment-418293 418293 As the commenters above note, all the ducks have to be in a row before we will see any sustainable rally: Technical indicators, fundamental indicators, available capital, investor sentiment, confidence in leadership and optimism for future gains are but some of these.

While it is true that valuations do appear to be more realistic than was the case a year ago (when we did experience a substantial rally), I think many of the other indicators (with the exception of side-lined cash) have actually fallen... But that's largely a subjective viewpoint.

Until we have more of a base, then we will still be stuck in this trader's market, with violent shifts in both directions.

It looks to me as if fear is still trumping greed by a wide margin. ]]> Sun, 08 Mar 2009 15:49:04 -0400 As the commenters above note, all the ducks have to be in a row before we will see any sustainable rally: Technical indicators, fundamental indicators, available capital, investor sentiment, confidence in leadership and optimism for future gains are but some of these.

While it is true that valuations do appear to be more realistic than was the case a year ago (when we did experience a substantial rally), I think many of the other indicators (with the exception of side-lined cash) have actually fallen... But that's largely a subjective viewpoint.

Until we have more of a base, then we will still be stuck in this trader's market, with violent shifts in both directions.

It looks to me as if fear is still trumping greed by a wide margin. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124752-has-irrational-apathy-unduly-depressed-asset-prices?source=feed#comment-418186 418186
If we are indeed seeing 'irrational apathy' today (which I doubt), then may we have to wait another 4 years for bottoming to occur?

Another word of caution; asset bubbles are indeed caused by irrational price pressures. Asset class devaluations on the other hand, tend to be much more driven by very real fundamentals in the marketplace.

Apathy can indeed become rather extreme. But I doubt that it is ever all that irrational!]]> Sun, 08 Mar 2009 14:22:18 -0400
If we are indeed seeing 'irrational apathy' today (which I doubt), then may we have to wait another 4 years for bottoming to occur?

Another word of caution; asset bubbles are indeed caused by irrational price pressures. Asset class devaluations on the other hand, tend to be much more driven by very real fundamentals in the marketplace.

Apathy can indeed become rather extreme. But I doubt that it is ever all that irrational!]]>