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keep_it_simple

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  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Unless you know something about human mortality (or immortality) that allows you to say "What I see is a trend with absolutely zero evidence to suggest it will not continue." please do share!! Now you are overgeneralizing and in addition to oversimplifying! Better to say "death is certain" and certainly more so than the LPHI stock going to zero absolutely, right?

    Concerning your "BTW, are prospective investors ever shown LPHI financial statements?" question, there are 2 different types of investors that you must differentiate between:

    1) Those that speculate on small cap stocks like LPHI
    2) and those investors that prefer off Wall Street non-correlated alternative investments offering non pooled/managed, fixed payout, low counterparty credit risk investment assets such as LPI's product

    Which do you mean when you ask are prospective investors ever shown LPHI financial statements - I am confused because when you placed an order with your broker to take a short position on LPHI stock did you check out LPHI's financial statements. I don't understand your question. Why would a life settlement investor be required to read LPHI's financial statement? You are mixing apples and oranges or just oversimplifying to make a specious argument.

    Please define "ethical salespeople" - if something other than making sure that your investor clients are truly diversified away from Wall Street or volatile markets, economic and political turmoil. How would you rank yourself in that respect, ie, as an ethical sales person? Do you tell your clients the real truth about what real diversification is versus your convenient truth of oversimplified "diversification" selling just stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc.
    Mar 15, 2012. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Harry Beck:

    You put to much faith and trust in the "The most important regulatory body" - their poor track record of misguided or biased "oversight" is evidenced by the last 2 financial collapses.

    For argument's sake, let's say that those numbers are accurate, what would you say if I told you that the 91% 2010 policies that exceeded their LE were 1 month past LE? And, what if in 2013 that number drops to 49% or 29%?

    Do you see how easy it is to put a spin on numbers? But, let's just call it "fraud" and be done with it.

    You tend to oversimplify.
    Mar 15, 2012. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Business Economics Analyst:

    Please take a look at this recent article and tell me if there was "fraud"? Careful how you answer - the life settlement industry is plagued with this kind of "fraud"...

    "ASSURED FUND RESETS MORTALITY, CUTS NAV BY A THIRD"
    http://bit.ly/zTErMk

    EXCERPT: "Investors in the fund face a significant impact.
    Caymans-based life settlement manager Assured Fund has reset the life expectancy estimates on its portfolio of policies and will cut net asset value (NAV) by over a third to match the change."
    Mar 14, 2012. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Harry(not Mark), you have a tendency to oversimplify, ie,

    Your say "6) All investors in this stock should ask themselves a simple question: Would I buy the product this company is selling?"

    Giving that advice is like telling someone to judge a book by it's cover in terms of the real complexity that makes a company successful (never one product) and whether the success of a product determines and is accurately reflected in it's stock price now or in the future. Markets are manipulated an there is no crystal ball to tell anyone how soon the next financial crises will precipitate - it used to be every 10 years but it's getting shorter. I would be better off guessing how long a 80+ year old male with lifestyle health issues and no longevity gene will live (8 years plus or minus 3 years) than figure out which investment bank is gaming the financial system or which nations are being dubbed by them to purchase toxic financial instruments to hide their financial insolvency.

    Also, please know that only when you have to manage pooled life settlements does it require using life expectancies to estimate cashflow and the accuracy thereof is paramount to avoid a liquidity crunch. However, the other way to use life expectancies is to merely estimate how much premium is reasonable to escrow knowing that there is a high probability that there WILL BE a premium call.

    I suspect if LPI presents life expectancy calculations to investors in such a way that the investor is lead to believe they are anything other than estimates, they are putting too much emphasis on that calculation and can be construed to be misleading.

    Concerning your "8) Salesmen like you " presumption... you are jumping to conclusions saying that I am a LPI salesperson. I AM NOT!

    Finally, Dr. Cassidy, as far as I know, does not use actuarial data (he does not claim to be an actuary) only medical underwriting of seniors selling their policies. Furthermore, LPI is NOT the only life settlement investment sponsor that does NOT primarily rely on actuarial data to price their policies.

    In matter of fact, every buyer uses their own IRR which ultimately drives what offer they will make for that very unique insured policy. It is a gross oversimplification to make the LE calculation the "holy grail" as if there is a standard or benchmark to measure pricing against. There is no a liquid market!!
    Mar 14, 2012. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Calculating life expectancies is still an art form in the life settlement industry, not a science as it is in the insurance business! There is no a priori standard to judge whether the calculations are too short or too long much less to prima facie accuse of fraud before something is adjudicated in the court of law.

    "Fraud" is a complex legal term that is bandied around out of context carelessly as if we are absolved from the consequences of it's misuse. I did not use the word "fraud" in describing what millions suffered financially from Wall Street's actions!

    Why is there this predisposition to persecute instead of trying to demonstrate reason and objectivity to allow fair assessment when so little is factually know and can be known at this time.
    Mar 14, 2012. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Thank you Mark for your response. You say you know that there is a HUGE difference between Dr. Cassidy and Fassano, AVS, 21st Services... Can you explain to me how those firms calculate their advertised 98 and 99% Actual-to-Expected? If not, how do you know that there is a HUGE difference especially in light of the fact that countless institutional portfolios are distressed? Also, is there a standardized industry method that describes how life expectancies should be calculated, ie, how are debits and credits applied to adjust the mortality curves and which actuarial tables are being used, are they proprietary, for example, etc. etc.

    Furthermore, actuarial tables that insurance companies use work for insurance companies because of the "law of large numbers" which does not apply to life settlement portfolios of 500, 1000, 2000 policies - actually the largest I've seen is 900. Those numbers are not statistically significant to say that actuarial science applies to determining impact of impaired health so as to allow for arbitrage and improve on the life expectancy calculation done by the insurance carrier when they issued the policy.

    Back to keeping it simple... according to the social security actuarial tables an 80 year old male has on the average 8 years to live. Now let's do a medical underwriting of that 80 year male and find one that has lifestyle health issues and can be shown not to have the longevity gene(no family member has lived longer than 75 years).

    My question to you is, what is more speculative selling short LPHI or investing in a small life settlement portfolio of 80+ year old individuals with impaired health. Now I know you are biased because you are short LPHI but think hard before you answer.

    Unlike stocks, life settlements have one risk and that is longevity - UNLESS you construct large pools which requires cashflow modeling (there is the rub) and add the additional layer of management risk, ie, complex fund structures. Longevity risk can be mitigated by diversifying across multiple 80+ year old lives with impaired health.

    Also ask yourself, why would Wall Street allow such a sensible and simple investment as direct fractional ownership in life settlements to compete with their volatile, market based instruments.

    Lastly, the senior life settlement industry is still in it's infancy as it has only been around since 2004 so let's give this investment a chance to grow up and offer investors a real safe haven. By the way, there are, according to my last count, 7 other LPI look alike fractional life settlement vendors in the market that are a heck of a lot less transparent than LPI that are of more concern and require attention but only LPHI has willingly subjected itself to SEC oversight and consequently the media's attention and scrutiny, ie., now being singled out in an industry that has for the last 4 years been plagued with problems on many many fronts.

    Sorry for any grammatical or spelling mistakes. I didn't have time to edit.

    Keep it simple.
    Mar 13, 2012. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Mark, again, with all due respect... how many of your clients have lost money in the stock market during the last crisis? Have you looked into how many LPI clients have lost money during the financial collapse?

    I encourage you to do so in order to put things into perspective. And let me reiterate, LPI's investment documents spell out precisely and provide full disclosure to the investors of all the risks. Please read them.

    P.S. is anyone informing investors in the equity markets of the stock manipulation, inside trading, etc., etc. etc. Why didn't anyone tell homeowners that their "investment" was rigged against them?
    Mar 12, 2012. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    Harry, with all due respect, do you know what LPI's disclosure documents say? Have you looked at them or better yet studied them?

    Also, how well do you know what a life expectancy estimate means? Do you know how they are calculated medical vs. Actuarial? Do you know that the senior life settlement industry as a whole has gone through major ordeal suffering from too short life expectancy estimates reflected in all of the NAV's of life settlement funds?

    Do you know that it's not a good idea to judge someone base on their "enemies" allegations, ie, the SEC.

    How impartial is your assessment if it is based on their allegations? Did you know that the SEC's statistics concerning LPI's life expectancy statistics includes Viaticals which is a complete different business model that has nothing to do with senior life settlements? Also, have you read LPHI's motion to dismiss and apprised yourself of their defense or are you strictly SEC oriented?

    How can you speak as if you "know" when you haven't taken time to study the position of the accused? Would you want someone to judge you based on information from those who want to put you out of business?

    How well do you know the senior life settlement industry? Do you know the difference and the pros and cons of direct fractional ownership, promissory notes, life settlement funds? Do you know that LPI doesn't use life expectancies estimates merely to determine a reasonable time to escrow premiums while life settlement funds most calculate cashflow and thus have to rely on life expectancy estimates in a way that LPI doesn't and of their disclosures say so?

    Please I urge you not to perpetuate misinformation. It's not good Karma, and besides, you are a financial professional with ethics requiring you to deal with facts and not to jump on the bandwagon of media headlines for convenience or to gain exposure.

    I encourage you to study the status of the life settlement industry and be more objective in the position you take vis a vis LPHI. I, for example, will not speak about the pros or cons or the legitimacy of the Wave–particle duality theory because I have not spent the time to research it.
    Mar 12, 2012. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    WITH CORRECTIONS: The SEC investigation is old news, really. LPHI has just filed a motion to dismiss. I wish LPHI all the best as they are being attacked by Wall Street for providing, unlike Wall Street, none toxic, straight forward alternative investment that Wall Street would like to securitize, but which instead LPI offers as a simply direct fractional ownership without complex derivative structures, management, fees, etc… LPI keeps it simple.

    Who needs another Wall Street debacle ripping off the small investors while profiting at the expense of the small investor. Once you understand LPI’s business model of really being interested in helping the small investors and how their direct ownership investment structure uniquely benefits those investor - even as their business model evolves and how they price the policies advances (industry life expectancy estimates are not science by any stretch of the imagination).

    Once someone understands the real issues they wouldn't be focusing on the negative but see that even in a "bankster" world, good can and hopefully will prevail. By the way, who do you think Ernest & Young is beholden to in light of the fact that they got caught by the SEC involved in the Madoff case? E&Y was the auditor – they certainly won’t question or challenge the SEC/Wall Street when it comes to their attacks on LPHI’s book keeping which has been done the same way for over 10 years from what I can tell.

    Things are not as they appear! One must make an extraordinary effort to look deeply and ask non-conventional or "un-acceptable" questions to see the truth.

    Also, the article’s title leads one to think that only insurance companies are supposed and allowed to base their business model on mortality.
    Mar 12, 2012. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life Partners Holdings: When A Shorter Life Pays Off [View article]
    The SEC investigation is old news, really. LPHI has just filed a motion to dismiss. I wish LPHI all the best as they are being attacked by Wall Street for providing none toxic, esoteric investments that Wall Street would like to securitize but LPI offers simply as direct fractional ownership. Who needs another Wall Street debacle ripping off the small investors while profiting at the expense of the small investor. Once you really understand their business model of really being interested in helping the small investors and how their direct ownership investment structure uniquely benefits those investor - even as their business model evolves and how they price the policies advances, once you see that you wouldn't be focusing on the negative but see that even in a "bankster" world, good will prevail. Who do you think Ernest & Young is beholden to in light of the fact that they got caught by the SEC involved in the Madoff case? Thinks are not what they appear! One must make an extraordinary effort to look deeply and ask non-conventional or "un-acceptable" questions to see the truth.
    Mar 12, 2012. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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