oregonduck

93 Comments

    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 15:02 PM
      Commented on:
      E-Trade Financial Carries High Risk-Reward
      Holding on to etrade and stopped trading after getting burned when they missed earnings. I have my shares parked in my retirement account for the long term, as I see this as a multi-year investment until the economy recovers. Go McCain!
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    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 14:45 PM
      Commented on:
      Has Jim Cramer Crossed the Line with Sirius XM?
      Ironically--His parent company--GE, is one of the worst short term investments out there, but it is a decent long term investment. Just like siri. This is all "white noise". Once the synergies take place and the economy recovers, the company will start to take off. Heck, even if the stock goes to a realtively conservative 4.00, i will stand to more than double my investment right now because, thanks to Cramer, I have averaged down. I will reap future rewards becuase of Cramer.
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    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 02:03 AM
      Commented on:
      Sirius XM Shorts Scrambling to Cover
      Woops--sorry dave--that was meant for Chapter 11.
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    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 02:02 AM
      Commented on:
      Sirius XM Shorts Scrambling to Cover
      When I post I usually notice mispelled words, but at least I try to spell correctly. "Loosely" stated dave, you should try to "lose" your inability to spell correctly if you are going to slam people on this board in a dignified way.
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    • ON: Wed Aug 27th 14:58 PM
      Commented on:
      Sirius XM Shorts Scrambling to Cover
      "Exposing Idiots"--now--the... is a thoughtful name for a reasonable person wanting to post a thoughtful counter analysis. Instead, you just insult the poster. To me, that exposes your desparation. Why are you wasting time posting on Yahoo and here if you are so apparently disinterested in Siri and think that the writer, as well as others who have a great deal of inside information, are so apparenty misinformed? I think that you are a stock basher, based on the tired rhetoric and empty bankruptcy rumblings. The company is a long way from a bankruptcy threat and has many plans to restructure the debt, as has been disclosed. Of course, if huge amounts of subscribers cancel and people suddenly stop buying sattelite radio, and cost cutting is not performed, bankruptcy would be a possibilty becuase the convertable debt would not be able to be refinanced or paid. I dont think that there is a good chance of that happening. In fact, I think that the chances are miniscule. So, mke reasonable arguments based on real facts, not based on footnotes in financial statements and weak talking points from either pissed off investors or market opportunists. I choose to make my judgments based on facts. Whoever beleives that siri is not a speculative or somewhat risky investment is simply in the wrong game. But, 1 year ago, Bear Stearns was a "blue chip" stock. So, none of us really know anything except that corruption has become rampant on Wall Street.
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    • ON: Tue Aug 26th 01:40 AM
      Commented on:
      July Satellite Radio Retail Sales Down but Better Than Expected
      How "many" times have you seen this happen? How "many" of thies convertable bond holders have shorted a stock to bankruptcy even though the fundamentals are strong. If you have seen this, you had better cite some examples, because you are full of it. The company would be bought out before that happened, or the converts would be paid off with a stock issuance, which, while not good for the stock price, is a much better option than bankruptcy if the company is performing well but the stock price is not reflecting it because of shorting. Your statements, ktwalrus, make no sense.
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    • ON: Wed Aug 20th 13:18 PM
      Commented on:
      Jim Cramer's Unnecessary Beating Over Sirius
      The need to issue converts to refinance XM debt WAS known prior to the merger. The issue was how long Siri was going to take to do it to get the merger done. The Converts are non-dilutive because of how the deal was done. The stock price is way under valued and the market has over-reacted. It will shake out over time. Patience is what is needed. I see it as an opportunity and I have bought more stock at very low prices. Cramer seems to focus his advice on traders rather than long term investers. I now have 45,000 shares--15,000 of which I aquired at 3.00, 15,000 or so at around 2.50, and the remaining 15,000 at current prices. I am not really unhappy at the price action as a long term investor becuase I beleive in the product and companies future and see that as the company becomes profitable, the stock will go way up over the next several years. And, while Siri has become a larger percentage of my portfolio than I intended, I still have a large time horizon and I still have a very diverse portfolio.
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    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 16:59 PM
      Commented on:
      Sirius, XM Complete Merger; Investors Still Blue
      Re: Chicago Gary--The Street article shows what an idiot that guy is. You cant file Chapter 11 so close after getting the kind of financing Sirius just got. That is Bankruptcy fraud. And, Siri is nowhere close that.

      Secondly, this rumor about the reverse stock split is stupid. CNBC asked him if that was a possibility and he was noncomittal. That is like asking me if I was going to be married to my wife 10 years from now and I said "hopefully" and the paper reported that it was rumored that I was planning a divorce. The naysayers are really out to take out Siri. NAB did not get their way and they now realize that a legal challenge is futile, so they are trying to take out Siri on the internet by shaking investors. You have to shake the wheat from the chaff.
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    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 10:41 AM
      Commented on:
      A Satellite Radio Giant's Surprising Small Audience
      He raises a couple of points that I think that Sirius realizes. Do you know anyone who listens to Operah? Barbara Walters? How much was paid for that talent? I think that Sirius needs to pay attention to what they pay for and take some ratings guidelines for content and consider cancelling shows/talent that is unprofitable and adding stuff that will really keep and add more subscribers. Rush Limbaugh (while he is controversial) would be the mother lode. He has 30 million listeners a day. Of course, he would cost a ton and just signed a new long term deal with clear channel.
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    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 02:55 AM
      Commented on:
      Sirius, XM Complete Merger; Investors Still Blue
      I agree 100% and think it will happen, especially with the Holiday roll out. The company can focus on Satellite Radio and not on another competetor in the satellite radio industry. I think that we are on the way up from here after a rough week.
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    • ON: Sun Jul 27th 19:29 PM
      Commented on:
      FCC Finally Approves Sirius-XM Merger
      You kinda made a point. Its a "shack"--wel... liken it to cable--IPOD's cant play NFL games, NBA, College football, Bloomberg, CNN, opera--you get my drift. I have an Ipod, CD and Satellite--they all go together. Its not like one will get one or the other. Its more like sattelite will replace AM/FM. Why dont analyist get that??
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    • ON: Sat Jul 26th 15:49 PM
      Commented on:
      Sirius / SM Merger Finally Approved - And It Only Took 493 Days!
      I expect a likely court challenge to be filed on Monday, but it will be buried by the news of the merger and the fact that the court challenge in and of itself does not stop the merger without either a stay granted by the FCC or by the Court. These are very unlikely. By the time the court hears this, the merger will have been completed.

      Remember, Sirius reports earnings and will be able to give guidance for the combined company on Monday. That is a big deal too. If profit and free cash flow is predicted in '09, we may see more upgrades and a continued rally as institutional buyers continue to buy. I have seen links showing that there are mutual funds that have bought Sirius. Someone should post those. We may see those positions increase as positive guidance is forthcoming. In short, there is really no chance of the company failing and only positive movement into the future.
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    • ON: Fri Jul 25th 12:29 PM
      Commented on:
      Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?
      Interesting..above the clutter, the Wireless guys are piggybacking the pending approval to get some spectrum for themselves.

      fjallfoss.fcc.gov/prod...

      This is an interesting move becuase they want rulemaking on this now by the FCC. This could be why there is some delay in the decision. That would REALLY screw the NAB big time and take out any monopoly argument. Also, it shows how much spectrum is valuable and just how many cards satellite has to play with. I dont think the market understands this.

      Also, Reuters upgraded to Neutral. Not covered at all. Only the downgrades have gotten any press.
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    • ON: Thu Jul 24th 19:47 PM
      Commented on:
      Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?
      There actually is no "official" vote from anyone. They are writing a concent decree that will be entered as a final order of record with the findings and decisions of the FCC and the fine imposed. This was actually smart of the comissioner and XM becuase it made the decision pretty much iron clad. They are paying far less in fines then they would have paid in extra concessions. I hope that this is borne out in the press and in the earnings CC on the 28th. That is why we may see a more gradual rise in price. Analysts will start to fall into line as the guidance starts to come out. Legal analysts should have the same conclusion about any judicial review as I do. (no matter what some silly shorts may say) Also, the impending SEC decision on shorting that will apply to the broader market will make it very difficult for investment bankers to short Sirius. Small investors will still be able to by using Etrade, but that really has no effect on the stock price as much as the big traders do. I think that we will se a sustained uptrend as the upgrades start to come out and now is the time to start to buy. At least, that is what I am doing. There will be fluctuations, as always, but XM/Sirius has turned the corner.
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    • ON: Thu Jul 24th 13:47 PM
      Commented on:
      Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?
      To blah--the DOJ decision was an internal decision not to stop the merger. I dont think that it was an admistrative order. If it was, I cant see that it was appealable. In any event, it is the Government that pursues antitrust cases to stop mergers, not private parties. Private parties can sue companies for illegal competition and to break up an existing company, I beleive, but I dont think they can force the federal government to stop a merger if the Federal government makes an internal decision that it does not want to. The FCC decision was based on a licensing issue--1)Was it in the "public interest" to grant a licence to both Companies as one, 2) Were there any regulatory issues to be resloved, such as fines 3) How much spectrum should be leased and what conditions should be placed, etc. These are all regulatory, as opposed to legal issues. There is no legal analysis by the FCC. They have full discretion under their rulemaking and enabling authority given to it by Congress. A court cannot invade that discretion, unless the angency makes an inproper conclusion of law or violates the Constitution. Since there are no Constitutional issues at state vis a vis the NAB or any other parties AND there were no issues of law as the FCC can determine what is in the "public interest" in their minds, any administrative review would be futile.
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