oregonduck's Comments

E-Trade Financial Carries High Risk-Reward

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:02:40 -0400

Holding on to etrade and stopped trading after getting burned when they missed earnings. I have my shares parked in my retirement account for the long term, as I see this as a multi-year investment until the economy recovers. Go McCain!

Has Jim Cramer Crossed the Line with Sirius XM?

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 14:45:47 -0400

Ironically--His parent company--GE, is one of the worst short term investments out there, but it is a decent long term investment. Just like siri. This is all "white noise". Once the synergies take place and the economy recovers, the company will start to take off. Heck, even if the stock goes to a realtively conservative 4.00, i will stand to more than double my investment right now because, thanks to Cramer, I have averaged down. I will reap future rewards becuase of Cramer.

Sirius XM Shorts Scrambling to Cover

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 02:03:14 -0400

Woops--sorry dave--that was meant for Chapter 11.

Sirius XM Shorts Scrambling to Cover

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 02:02:28 -0400

When I post I usually notice mispelled words, but at least I try to spell correctly. "Loosely" stated dave, you should try to "lose" your inability to spell correctly if you are going to slam people on this board in a dignified way.

Sirius XM Shorts Scrambling to Cover

Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:58:26 -0400

"Exposing Idiots"--now--there is a thoughtful name for a reasonable person wanting to post a thoughtful counter analysis. Instead, you just insult the poster. To me, that exposes your desparation. Why are you wasting time posting on Yahoo and here if you are so apparently disinterested in Siri and think that the writer, as well as others who have a great deal of inside information, are so apparenty misinformed? I think that you are a stock basher, based on the tired rhetoric and empty bankruptcy rumblings. The company is a long way from a bankruptcy threat and has many plans to restructure the debt, as has been disclosed. Of course, if huge amounts of subscribers cancel and people suddenly stop buying sattelite radio, and cost cutting is not performed, bankruptcy would be a possibilty becuase the convertable debt would not be able to be refinanced or paid. I dont think that there is a good chance of that happening. In fact, I think that the chances are miniscule. So, mke reasonable arguments based on real facts, not based on footnotes in financial statements and weak talking points from either pissed off investors or market opportunists. I choose to make my judgments based on facts. Whoever beleives that siri is not a speculative or somewhat risky investment is simply in the wrong game. But, 1 year ago, Bear Stearns was a "blue chip" stock. So, none of us really know anything except that corruption has become rampant on Wall Street.

July Satellite Radio Retail Sales Down but Better Than Expected

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 01:40:50 -0400

How "many" times have you seen this happen? How "many" of thies convertable bond holders have shorted a stock to bankruptcy even though the fundamentals are strong. If you have seen this, you had better cite some examples, because you are full of it. The company would be bought out before that happened, or the converts would be paid off with a stock issuance, which, while not good for the stock price, is a much better option than bankruptcy if the company is performing well but the stock price is not reflecting it because of shorting. Your statements, ktwalrus, make no sense.

Jim Cramer's Unnecessary Beating Over Sirius

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:18:30 -0400

The need to issue converts to refinance XM debt WAS known prior to the merger. The issue was how long Siri was going to take to do it to get the merger done. The Converts are non-dilutive because of how the deal was done. The stock price is way under valued and the market has over-reacted. It will shake out over time. Patience is what is needed. I see it as an opportunity and I have bought more stock at very low prices. Cramer seems to focus his advice on traders rather than long term investers. I now have 45,000 shares--15,000 of which I aquired at 3.00, 15,000 or so at around 2.50, and the remaining 15,000 at current prices. I am not really unhappy at the price action as a long term investor becuase I beleive in the product and companies future and see that as the company becomes profitable, the stock will go way up over the next several years. And, while Siri has become a larger percentage of my portfolio than I intended, I still have a large time horizon and I still have a very diverse portfolio.

Sirius, XM Complete Merger; Investors Still Blue

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 16:59:47 -0400

Re: Chicago Gary--The Street article shows what an idiot that guy is. You cant file Chapter 11 so close after getting the kind of financing Sirius just got. That is Bankruptcy fraud. And, Siri is nowhere close that.

Secondly, this rumor about the reverse stock split is stupid. CNBC asked him if that was a possibility and he was noncomittal. That is like asking me if I was going to be married to my wife 10 years from now and I said "hopefully" and the paper reported that it was rumored that I was planning a divorce. The naysayers are really out to take out Siri. NAB did not get their way and they now realize that a legal challenge is futile, so they are trying to take out Siri on the internet by shaking investors. You have to shake the wheat from the chaff.

A Satellite Radio Giant's Surprising Small Audience

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 10:41:21 -0400

He raises a couple of points that I think that Sirius realizes. Do you know anyone who listens to Operah? Barbara Walters? How much was paid for that talent? I think that Sirius needs to pay attention to what they pay for and take some ratings guidelines for content and consider cancelling shows/talent that is unprofitable and adding stuff that will really keep and add more subscribers. Rush Limbaugh (while he is controversial) would be the mother lode. He has 30 million listeners a day. Of course, he would cost a ton and just signed a new long term deal with clear channel.

Sirius, XM Complete Merger; Investors Still Blue

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 02:55:16 -0400

I agree 100% and think it will happen, especially with the Holiday roll out. The company can focus on Satellite Radio and not on another competetor in the satellite radio industry. I think that we are on the way up from here after a rough week.

FCC Finally Approves Sirius-XM Merger

Sun, 27 Jul 2008 19:29:36 -0400

You kinda made a point. Its a "shack"--well--I liken it to cable--IPOD's cant play NFL games, NBA, College football, Bloomberg, CNN, opera--you get my drift. I have an Ipod, CD and Satellite--they all go together. Its not like one will get one or the other. Its more like sattelite will replace AM/FM. Why dont analyist get that??

Sirius / SM Merger Finally Approved - And It Only Took 493 Days!

Sat, 26 Jul 2008 15:49:56 -0400

I expect a likely court challenge to be filed on Monday, but it will be buried by the news of the merger and the fact that the court challenge in and of itself does not stop the merger without either a stay granted by the FCC or by the Court. These are very unlikely. By the time the court hears this, the merger will have been completed.

Remember, Sirius reports earnings and will be able to give guidance for the combined company on Monday. That is a big deal too. If profit and free cash flow is predicted in '09, we may see more upgrades and a continued rally as institutional buyers continue to buy. I have seen links showing that there are mutual funds that have bought Sirius. Someone should post those. We may see those positions increase as positive guidance is forthcoming. In short, there is really no chance of the company failing and only positive movement into the future.

Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?

Fri, 25 Jul 2008 12:29:58 -0400

Interesting..above the clutter, the Wireless guys are piggybacking the pending approval to get some spectrum for themselves.

fjallfoss.fcc.gov/prod...

This is an interesting move becuase they want rulemaking on this now by the FCC. This could be why there is some delay in the decision. That would REALLY screw the NAB big time and take out any monopoly argument. Also, it shows how much spectrum is valuable and just how many cards satellite has to play with. I dont think the market understands this.

Also, Reuters upgraded to Neutral. Not covered at all. Only the downgrades have gotten any press.

Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?

Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:47:22 -0400

There actually is no "official" vote from anyone. They are writing a concent decree that will be entered as a final order of record with the findings and decisions of the FCC and the fine imposed. This was actually smart of the comissioner and XM becuase it made the decision pretty much iron clad. They are paying far less in fines then they would have paid in extra concessions. I hope that this is borne out in the press and in the earnings CC on the 28th. That is why we may see a more gradual rise in price. Analysts will start to fall into line as the guidance starts to come out. Legal analysts should have the same conclusion about any judicial review as I do. (no matter what some silly shorts may say) Also, the impending SEC decision on shorting that will apply to the broader market will make it very difficult for investment bankers to short Sirius. Small investors will still be able to by using Etrade, but that really has no effect on the stock price as much as the big traders do. I think that we will se a sustained uptrend as the upgrades start to come out and now is the time to start to buy. At least, that is what I am doing. There will be fluctuations, as always, but XM/Sirius has turned the corner.

Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?

Thu, 24 Jul 2008 13:47:18 -0400

To blah--the DOJ decision was an internal decision not to stop the merger. I dont think that it was an admistrative order. If it was, I cant see that it was appealable. In any event, it is the Government that pursues antitrust cases to stop mergers, not private parties. Private parties can sue companies for illegal competition and to break up an existing company, I beleive, but I dont think they can force the federal government to stop a merger if the Federal government makes an internal decision that it does not want to. The FCC decision was based on a licensing issue--1)Was it in the "public interest" to grant a licence to both Companies as one, 2) Were there any regulatory issues to be resloved, such as fines 3) How much spectrum should be leased and what conditions should be placed, etc. These are all regulatory, as opposed to legal issues. There is no legal analysis by the FCC. They have full discretion under their rulemaking and enabling authority given to it by Congress. A court cannot invade that discretion, unless the angency makes an inproper conclusion of law or violates the Constitution. Since there are no Constitutional issues at state vis a vis the NAB or any other parties AND there were no issues of law as the FCC can determine what is in the "public interest" in their minds, any administrative review would be futile.

Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?

Thu, 24 Jul 2008 13:37:09 -0400

I would not rule out a judicial review by the NAB. I think they are desparate to do anything and will file it the same day the order is entered by the FCC.

I think it is likely and that the press will make a big deal out of it. That is why XM is moving fast to consummate the deal by selling bonds to refinance notes so that they can argue to a court that they would be irreperrably injured by a frivolous judicial review and request for a stay by a non-party appellant. It is hard to say how the street would react. We need to have lawyers by the Sirius and XM people jump in prepared to argue that any appeal would be frivolous and merely seen as a politically motivated attempt to make the cost higher to subscribers and ruin the football seasons of XM and Sirius subscribers. They nees to have the PR people on deck.

Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?

Thu, 24 Jul 2008 12:50:34 -0400

I am also a lawyer who does admistrative law as well as litigation. Under Federal Administrative law, the NAB would file a petition for Judical Review with the DC court of appeals and would have to ask the court for a stay of the FCC decision. They would have to show a strong probability of success.

These are hard cases. The FCC would be represented by the US Solicitor Generals office and they would be bound to defend the decision. The Standard of Review, becuase this was a fact intensive review, is "abuse of discretion" and "substantial evidence"--that is, if there is a "scintilla of evidence" that supports the findings of the FCC that it was in the public benefit to grant the licence amendment to allow both XM and Sirius to have a license, then it will be upheld. The courts cannot substitute their judgment for that of an agency. They can only review errors of law. The FCC did not make independent legal findings related to the issue of whether XM-Sirius was a monopoly. That was the Justice Department. Since the Justice Department is not pushing the issue, it is a non-issue. A non-governement party does not have standing to bring a antritrust claim in an FCC administrative licensing proceeding, IMO. With the fact that it is a "concent decree",--basically a contractual agreement between XM-Sirius and the FCC that also makes this really hard to appeal for the NAB. That is why they are so pissed.

I think that a lawsuit will go no where. When I advise clients to do an appeal of an administrative case, we always have to appeal on issues of legal error. This is a case where there is no real legal error.

FCC Commissioner Copps Votes "No" to Radio Merger: No Surprise

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:23:06 -0400

Repeater issue is right. Fcc filings with tates office last week were fcused on the repeater issue. Also, Mel met personally (one on one) with Tate last week, according to Ex Pate disclosure filings with the FCC.

XM's Pre-Announced Q2 Results May Hold Merger Clues

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:04:47 -0400

Copps should be removed for Fraud, incompetence, and collusion with the NAB.

There--that feels better.

Also, hes a cop. Probably a traffic cop. I cant stand traffic cops.

Why the Wild Trading in XM and Sirius

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:00:16 -0400

Filings at the FCC today show a lot of meetingw with Tate friday and Monday. Mel met with Tate personally on the 18th. I think that the deal is going to be announced Wednesday. If Mel says no deal, I had better be by a computer, becuase all of my limit sells are on the top side, I dont have stop limits in place.

Has the FCC Gone Communist?

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 20:50:55 -0400

Quit whining and threating to vote for Obama. No one who seriously invests in the stock market and wants to make money would really want to vote for a guy who would raise cap gains by 13% and call all of us wealthy just because we have money to invest. But, to each his/her own.

Adelstein is talking from Georgetown partners talking points. Directly. He knows that there are 3 yes votes. He is trying to extract conditions. Sirius knew that they would have to give up something and they will give up 50 channels and 4 years of price freezes. Big deal. They will gain that many subscibers who will be willing to sign 4 year contracts for fixed prices over that term. How many of those customers will know that those were legally required? They can market it that way. A la cart will not be included in the fixed price deal. Also, I can see porn channels coming out in a la cart that could be charged at premium rates. (yes....porn.) If cable can do it, why cant radio?? They could charge 40 bucks a month for 5 porn channels.

Sirius and XMSR's Six Year Prison Sentence

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:30:40 -0400

See article above--this is a trap! Sirius cant go along with it becuase it will lead to endless litigation and enforcement actions. Also, these "negotiations" will take forever. They have been "negtiating" for months. Look at all of the ex parte communications. What do you think they have been talking about? Adelsteins hair products?! I think that Tate needs to get her ass off the pot!!

Sirius and XMSR's Six Year Prison Sentence

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:25:07 -0400

Tate is letting Adelstein be her cover while she looks pretty. What a coward. She will just vote with the guys. What a RINO.

Sirius and XMSR's Six Year Prison Sentence

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:23:59 -0400

New News:

FCC Commissioner Calls For Negotiations On XM, Sirius Deal

Jul 18, 2008 12:05:04 (ET)

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A Federal Communications Commission commissioner who could be the deciding vote on a pending merger between XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) wants to negotiate with the companies on additional concessions and enforcement mechanisms, according to an FCC person familiar with the offer.

Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein has requested that the merged entity set aside 25% of its airwaves for minority-run and public service programming, more than three times the 8% the two satellite companies have already agreed to.

But Adelstein may be willing to sign off on the deal with a lower set-aside, as long as it's higher than the current offer and represented as a percent of spectrum rather than a set number of channels, the person said.

High definition, or HD, radio could be a critical factor in this calculation. In his offer, Adelstein joined with several lawmakers in asking that the new satellite radios be equipped to receive HD radio.

Adelstein's HD radio proposal would only apply if the new radios were being subsidized by the merged company through customer rebates or other cost-lowering mechanisms.

Minnesota Democrats and House Energy and Commerce Telecommunication Subcommittee Chairman Edward Markey, D-Mass., have said the satellite radios should be equipped with HD radio in all circumstances.

If at least some satellite radios were able to receive HD radio, that could go a long way toward appeasing lawmakers who are concerned about preserving public service channels.

Adelstein also wants the merged entity to make available the technical specifications of its new radios within 60 days after the merger, as opposed to the one-year time frame they agreed to with FCC Chairman Kevin Martin.

Adelstein's offer also calls for the new company to be monitored by an independent agency to ensure that it is allowing manufacturers easy access to information needed to make their own radios.

If Adelstein signs off, he would be the third commissioner on the five-member body to agree to the merger, which was approved by the Justice Department in March. Martin and Commissioner Robert McDowell have already voted in favor of the merger with certain conditions, including a three-year price freeze for subscribers.

Adelstein and Markey both are asking for a six-year price freeze.

XM and Sirius didn't respond for comment.

Shares of XM were up 16 cents at $8.60 and Sirius was up 14 cents at $2.24 in recent trading.

Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:08:40 -0400

Adelstein says yes--we are over the hump!!!

XM / Sirius: Cowen Sees Approval Soon

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 20:30:52 -0400

Sirius/XM is NOT ON THE AUG 1 AGENDA.

hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edoc...

Hopefully, they will announce it before the meeting.

XM / Sirius: Cowen Sees Approval Soon

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 12:20:40 -0400

It is quiet. No activity at the FCC and no filings since the 14th. Is Tate through fingering herself yet?

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 19:12:22 -0400

This article indicates that the SEC will even implement more stringent rules regarding Naked short selling for the broader market, not just certain stocks. I think that this will really help turn the tide and give the longs some traction.

www.ft.com/cms/s/d28fc...

Financials: Don't Believe the Rumors

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:29:46 -0400

But--how will the shorts be injured with the limits on Naked short selling being implemented tomorrow? A lot of them wont know about the new rule and that will allow a rally IMO.

On Jul 15 09:29 AM friend wrote:

> The short sellers are raging an attack at the financials to an extent
> of damage , worse than the 911 terrorist attack .
>
> The only difference is that the short sellers are much stronger than
> the defenders .
>
> Yes , it is a financial war and not just a market of supply and demand
> .
>
> All bank stocks are commonly seen sliding over 5% in price in just
> about 2 hours time , regardless the financial strength of each individual
> bank .
>
> Such strong concerted power can only be released by a conspired group
> of short sellers .
>
> Conspiracy is criminal .
>
> Panic catch on by the general public and the price went down further
> .
>
> The defenders of price become weaker due to their loss of equity
> .
>
> Lowering price or equity , credit crunch , weakening economy all
> come into a vicious cycle and domino effect .
>
> Such huge depletion of pricing has nothing to do with the value of
> the bank stocks .
>
> Some banks are paying dividend at a rate of more than 20% to the
> now depleted price .
>
> Yes , they would cut dividend in the next quarter while their equity
> is cut tremendously by the invincible short sellers .
>
> Strong defenders are needed to buy against the short sellers so that
> the badly depleted price can be pull back . The confidence of investors
> would be accordingly restored .
>
> The Fannie / Freddie stocks are immensely important in strategy .
>
>
> Should the Fannie / Freddie stock pricing be stablized , the pricing
> of the rest of the financials are less easy to be pull down further
> .
>
> The equity values of the two are of immense importance to the passing
> of the mortgage rescue plan .
>
> The mortgage rescue plan would then help to stablize the housing
> market .
>
> I know for the fact that some government did encounter a similar
> financial war .
>
> The same government stepped in to buy against the short sellers by
> setting up a trust funds using the taxpayers' money .
>
> The same government won and made money for the trust funds as a result
> that the pricing grow back to normal .
>
> The shortseller lost a huge chunk of money and disappeared .
>
> All those bad news the shortsellers used disappeared as well .

>
> Can the good guys win the war ?
>
>
>
>

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:23:04 -0400

Naked short selling is history as of opening bell tomorrow. As my suspicions tell me that Etrade, as well as other financials, have been victimized by "Naked" short selling, we may see some releif.

news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20...

On Jul 15 04:56 PM RightinSanFr ancisco wrote:

> Unfortunately, over the next several years we will need to work through
> two economic realities:
> 1. We will need to export as much as we import. The dollary must
> decline.
> 2. We are major debtors at personal and governmental levels. Thankfully
> corporate balance sheets (ex banks) are fine.
>
> Aside from the level of pain and the duration, a big question will
> be whether we stay as committed to free market capitalism. Pessimists
> would say - not in a democracy.