fortypercent's  Instablog

haven't been posting to twitter or my blog for a few weeks. remembering to keep up is the hardest part.

this market is really struggling to declare it self. volatility is just now starting to calm a bit. the market's price action in recent days has shown a desire to move higher.



the uptrend is likely to be short as things appear short-term over bought. be ready to play this by ear. we can also see that the nasdaq bullish % is looking exteneded.



market pressure could change direction anytime now. for now i have closed and will hold back on taking my typical large position in a broad market etf.

i will consider fast, short-term trading in individual stocks.
07/20/2009 i will take a 2% risk position in YHOO and a 1% risk position in STEC

these two will be traders, looking for quick 3% - 5% gains then close.

WPZ - Williams Partners LP. - is a 900 million market cap US company that gathers, process and treats natural gas from the natural gas and crude oil industries. the setup is as one of those "master limited partnerships" . following the law they must return almost all earnings to shareholders. this is done as through "disributions" of income, not dividends. the amount is by law very high and accounts for the high payout ratio of 110%( this high number can be misleading in the case of a "partnership" if the trader doesn't know how partnerships are legally setup) we can be reassured by the quick ratio of 2.27. WPZ has had an ROE of 67% margins have all been above 20% PEand forward PE are estimated as 8.0. price to free cash flow ratio is 6.0. WPZ is paying its shareholder owners 13% in "distributions" also called dividends. my one year target, natural gas has been treated stuply. that won't go on for much longer. based upon a stock market that doesn't crash, is about 20% capital gains in addition to the distributions for a 33% total return within the coming 6 - 12 months!