James Lewis

Three Myths About Business in China

I like you work Shaun, I am not sure how objective you are. Especially as you have pro-growth business. If you do not see opportunities, then you can not add value to your clients by offering your services.

However every chinese household in tier 1 cities has all the gadgets nd necessities that westerns have in the west as well as jewlery, cars. Most if not all eat out in restaurants, enjoy hobbies such as bowling and indulge by going out at night. If the Chinese manage to hold the price of property/stock market basically stable then we can expect consumption to continue increasing. It is too small currently and needs to increase if exports do not recover.

I am not sure we will see 50% of GDP being domestically generated through service industry in 5 years as asset price bubbles could inflate further or burst. Unless of course the economy is re-balanced. However a genuine 40%-45% is all that China needs if it is spread between enough people. Not juts the upper middle and upper class buying huge ticket items and asset speculation being counted in the figures.