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Cheating Death: Possible Winners and Losers in Life Extension Strategies

Health clubs and gyms will be winners as baby boomer retirees will want to extend their physical fitness and flexibility for the added years of their life span. Already, a shift is going on where younger men and women are not going to gyms to the same degree they did a few years ago, while those sixty-five and over are enrolling at an ever rapid rate. This trend will in time also produce savings for the health care bill for Americans as we age.

The Trouble with 401ks and Bond ETFs

"The banks bleed us dry . . ." What? We the people bleed ourselves dry -- we make choices to save or spend, to borrow or to invest, we sometimes win and sometimes lose, but in either case it is our doing -- let's stop playing the victim game, exclaiming that it is "their" -- banks', unions', Wall street's, Washington's, Obama's doing. We as a people collectively make bad choices and then won't acknowledge that we are the problem. If we have a bad government let's remember we elected them. If we are in bankruptcy, through greed or otherwise we became overextended. Period. If we are spendthrifts, look inward, don't blame Madison Avenue. I'm tired of all the comments on Alpha that reveal a victimization mindset. The rise and fall of the American (U.S.) Empire will be reflected in the normative shift in attitude from personal responsibility to victimization -- it is happening to ALL classes of Americans, not just those on welfare. OK, enough sermonizing.

Natural Gas: America's Energy Salvation

Thank you Mr. Shaefer for your uplifting recommendation regarding investing in natural gas, uplifting because it focuses on a workable, economic and environmentally comparatively clean energy priority -- the greater utilization of our own vast natural gas resources. By doing so, the United States will more expeditiously be able to reduce our huge over dependence on oil from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, both an economic and political nightmare.

In addition, your explanation and prognosis for America's expanded reliance on our own vast natural gas resources hopefully may encourage investors to make sensible energy portfolio choices that, first, will enable our natural gas industry to have sufficient capital to expand natural gas utilization, resources, and infrastructure. Moreover, such investments represent a more sensible investment then speculating over dramatic short-term market turnarounds, e.g., UNG. In contrast, a longer-term investment horizon in the natural gas industry together with prudent patience may be the safest bet one can make these days, one that has a pay off for both the country and for the investors. U. S. workers rightfully cry out: "buy American." U.S. investors might be wise to cry a little louder: "invest America!" . Thank you.

Marc Faber: Buy a Machine Gun

It is easy to be factious and glib and to proclaim "who on Earth would have faith in the US administration. Certainly not someone who thinks." Then to say in response to the interviewer's comment that five months earlier he had said "buy a farm and a gun . . .", you now exclaim: "Now you need a machine gun," well such dark humor in such serious world and national times I find disturbing. Yes, one can laughingly say buy a machine gun on national media, but perchance among the multitudes of listeners they might act on the suggestion. What may be more significant is the spreading of hopeless cynicism when positive ideas and suggestions are needed. Mr. Farber perhaps you were misquoted and if so, I am very sorry. If you were quoted correctly, I am also sorry.

Pace of Insider Sales Continues to Escalate

Ebworthen, I share your frustration with the "way things are," but I cannot be as cynical as you appear to be in your post. I probably would agree with your points by substituting "relatively uninformed" for the word "sucker." What I am saying is that we need to make retirees, investors and, yes, poker plays better informed about risks, rewards, and especially manipulation.


On Aug 29 12:45 PM ebworthen wrote:

> There is always a sucker at the poker table.
>
> The average retiree or invester is the sucker.
>
> The other players are the inside traders, banks, politicians, and
> the FED is the dealer.
>
> Our Parents are at the table betting their retirement and savings
> because they still believe in the country.
>
> Who is going to buy them dinner and pay for their room and a bed
> when they go bust and the rest walk away laughing?

Another Dozen Housing Markets Improve

Mr. Mast, your optimistic point of view is always refreshing, especially when the tide is going out. Nonetheless, I wish I could share your optimism about the housing market. Statistical data must always be taken with several grains of salt. Having said the obvious, I still applaud you for seeing and pointing out green shoots.

Today in Commodities: Dollar in the Driver's Seat

Yes, it seems likely that the next two contract months for UNG will be disappointing, but "all things eventually return to the mean." Natural gas futures will rise -- of course, the only issue is when. At this point with UNG near $11.00, suppose one goes long and it falls to $9.00 within the next few weeks, I suggest that may only be a paper loss of less than 20%, and falling to $9.00 intuitively to me seems unlikely. But, when UNG rises, though probably never getting near its near $65 high of about two years ago, it is not unthinkable that it will provide investors with a very good long-term capital gain from its current level. Yes, I am long UNG and have bought bits and pieces as it has been going down. And yes, I may look up and see the knife falling on me. That's risk/reward.

Book Review: Making Sense of the Dollar, by Marc Chandler

David, excellent and fair review of Chandler's book. But for learning about it from you, I probably would not have heard about its publication. Because the topic is of serious investment interest to me, I am Amazoning it today. Thanks.

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

The remarks of Cautious Investor below struck me as well reasoned and an insightful commentary about the macro economic condition in the US and how that is and will affect peoples' lives (jobs) and the constraints on spending. By mentioning the significance of underemployment, Cautious Investor widens the base of our malfunctioning economy on a level that will work to the disadvantage of the large majority of investors in equities. Corporations can only cut costs so much, and existing employees' productivity has limits as well. There is no way for any systemic rise in corporate profits given a dwindling consumer demand within the foreseeable next couple of years at least. Indeed, "things, when looking around the corner, appear rather bleak."!
Thank you Cautious Investor for hitting it on the head and writing in such an articulate manner.


On Aug 29 10:23 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> A host of the technical indicators I use have been warnings but this
> market is being driven by historically unique forces, including massive
> deficits and proportionate liquidity injections, or is being supported
> my the machinations of the Fed. In either case, what in the past
> have proven to be useful tools are being compromised, if not castrated,
> in the current setting.
>
> The market is clearly overbought and has risen to unsustainable levels.
> It was first better than expected earnings, then it was the growth
> of China, then it was about housing and other reports, then it was
> we sold a few more cars through the clunker program and now we are
> starting to take stock of the basics. They have remained unchanged
> and over the long-run these cannot be abrogated by either liquidity
> or complicity.
>
> Growth in China is in serious jeopardy and central authorities are
> genuinely concerned about creation of excess capacity and speculation
> in commodities, casino's and equities. Recent policy actions, designed
> to mute some of the excesses, has been initiated over concern of
> these excesses and the larger unspoken concern over the financial
> health of the economy. Corporations with deteriorating earnings are
> borrowing more money; under usual conditions they would be denied
> additional credit. In parallel, banks are concealing non-performing
> loans through rolling them over. Some smart people, including Micheal
> Grant, think China is a ticking time bomb.
>
> Meanwhile, stateside, the core problems of underemployment, consumer
> spending and bankiing sector health remain unchanged.
> To an extent consumer spending and underemployment are intertwined;
> but even if consumers, who have jobs, were not frightened by the
> economy and the administration's policies they would still want to
> save and liquidate debt therby containing spending. Prospects for
> the unemployed are miserable and, unfortunately, government and the
> apparatchiks of MSM do nothing to either clarify or correct the resports
> released federal departments and agencies. The bottom line is hiring
> is still trending down amid a growing potential labor force.
>
> If China follows the path of Japan, the model country that could
> do no wrong until 1989, and the US consumer spending continues to
> contract, what will be the catalyst to spur growth and profits? Many
> times people when confronted by such a question will resort to bromides
> that touch upon ingenuity, creativity and innovation but it is easy
> to forget that these essential qualities must be nurtured.
> A solid investment environment depends on a strong and stable currency,
> restrained federal spending, less harmful legislation, dependable
> contract law, limits on taxation and countercyclical capital regulation.
>
>
> In my humble view things, when looking around the corner, appear
> rather bleak.
>
>
>

The Age of Turbulence: Preparing for the Crash

Ditto!


On Jul 27 12:47 AM Larry House wrote:

> I would think the inherent difficulty in making predictions about
> the future would give you pause about making predictions, but I guess
> not.

Austrian School of Economics Is on the Rise

The so-called "Austrian School of Economics" has little new to offer, at least in terms of theory. In fact, it is an outgrowth of the Arron Director and Walter Friedman founders of the "Chicago School of Economics," which served as the theoretical justification for Ronald Reagan's economic views (with a strong influence of Ann Rand 's libertarian philosophy. (Recall that President Reagan campaigned for smaller government, smaller government spending, and for the economy to rest primarily on free market principles.) In short, the "Austrian School" tenets, as I understand them, are older ideas wrapped in new paper. The tenets remain sound.

Time for Income: Time for Bonds?

Marc Courteray's disclaimer at the end -- "Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it" -- is always refreshing since the reader ends up where he/she was before reading the piece -- aware that she/he must weigh all arguments and make his/her own decision on the inflation/deflation issue. To be sure, looking ahead, relative inflation would be conducive for a better investment climate then would a persistent deflationary environment. I add a thought to consider. My reading of Seeking Alpha comments over past couple of months suggests that the majority of investors inflation will win and is not too far off. With a bias for contrarianism, this makes me more receptive to the Japanese experience argument meaning deflationary pressures will persist for at least a decade during which making money in equities or bonds for non-trading investors will be extremely limited, especially those holding 401 and the like retirement plans.

Regardless, Mr. Courtenary's assertion: "Only you can decide the best place for your money" is the only sure thing, understanding that you may be wrong. Investing is a chess game.

What Would Happen if the CFTC Limited Energy Speculation?

In comment above, forgot to mention I am long UNG.

What Would Happen if the CFTC Limited Energy Speculation?

The CFTC's possible placing restrictions on energy futures and swaps held by index and exchange traded funds, though perceived by many to be necessary, could be the first step in the eventual breakdown of legitimate future price hedging for all major commodities. In the agricultural sector, for example, this could produce great inefficiencies in the market to the detriment of both producers and consumers. Consider the stark choices that would result, for example, if commodity producers were somehow limited to selling at prices out of the ground. Just a thought.

AIG: Mixed Signals and Blind Pools

Actually, rose colored glasses do help many blind people. Being blind typically does not mean the person doesn't perceive light. To the contrary, bright light can be quite disturbing to many blind persons. Hence, dark or rose colored glasses are often worn to mitigate the nebulous glare. Moral of the story: one should be careful when asking a redundant question in trying to make a point.