swygert@law.stetson.edu's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/174889/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174217-cheating-death-possible-winners-and-losers-in-life-extension-strategies?source=feed#comment-769803 769803 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:03:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165758-the-trouble-with-401ks-and-bond-etfs?source=feed#comment-711576 711576 Sat, 10 Oct 2009 10:00:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159932-natural-gas-america-s-energy-salvation?source=feed#comment-663827 663827
In addition, your explanation and prognosis for America's expanded reliance on our own vast natural gas resources hopefully may encourage investors to make sensible energy portfolio choices that, first, will enable our natural gas industry to have sufficient capital to expand natural gas utilization, resources, and infrastructure. Moreover, such investments represent a more sensible investment then speculating over dramatic short-term market turnarounds, e.g., UNG. In contrast, a longer-term investment horizon in the natural gas industry together with prudent patience may be the safest bet one can make these days, one that has a pay off for both the country and for the investors. U. S. workers rightfully cry out: "buy American." U.S. investors might be wise to cry a little louder: "invest America!" . Thank you.]]> Sun, 06 Sep 2009 09:23:30 -0400
In addition, your explanation and prognosis for America's expanded reliance on our own vast natural gas resources hopefully may encourage investors to make sensible energy portfolio choices that, first, will enable our natural gas industry to have sufficient capital to expand natural gas utilization, resources, and infrastructure. Moreover, such investments represent a more sensible investment then speculating over dramatic short-term market turnarounds, e.g., UNG. In contrast, a longer-term investment horizon in the natural gas industry together with prudent patience may be the safest bet one can make these days, one that has a pay off for both the country and for the investors. U. S. workers rightfully cry out: "buy American." U.S. investors might be wise to cry a little louder: "invest America!" . Thank you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159960-marc-faber-buy-a-machine-gun?source=feed#comment-661574 661574 Fri, 04 Sep 2009 09:18:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158926-pace-of-insider-sales-continues-to-escalate?source=feed#comment-652454 652454

On Aug 29 12:45 PM ebworthen wrote:

> There is always a sucker at the poker table.
>
> The average retiree or invester is the sucker.
>
> The other players are the inside traders, banks, politicians, and
> the FED is the dealer.
>
> Our Parents are at the table betting their retirement and savings
> because they still believe in the country.
>
> Who is going to buy them dinner and pay for their room and a bed
> when they go bust and the rest walk away laughing?]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 12:53:49 -0400

On Aug 29 12:45 PM ebworthen wrote:

> There is always a sucker at the poker table.
>
> The average retiree or invester is the sucker.
>
> The other players are the inside traders, banks, politicians, and
> the FED is the dealer.
>
> Our Parents are at the table betting their retirement and savings
> because they still believe in the country.
>
> Who is going to buy them dinner and pay for their room and a bed
> when they go bust and the rest walk away laughing?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158866-another-dozen-housing-markets-improve?source=feed#comment-652449 652449 Sat, 29 Aug 2009 12:47:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158916-today-in-commodities-dollar-in-the-driver-s-seat?source=feed#comment-652421 652421 Sat, 29 Aug 2009 12:22:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158758-book-review-making-sense-of-the-dollar-by-marc-chandler?source=feed#comment-652407 652407 Sat, 29 Aug 2009 12:11:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158925-sobering-stat-arms-index-indicates-market-is-at-peak-not-bottom?source=feed#comment-652378 652378 Thank you Cautious Investor for hitting it on the head and writing in such an articulate manner.


On Aug 29 10:23 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> A host of the technical indicators I use have been warnings but this
> market is being driven by historically unique forces, including massive
> deficits and proportionate liquidity injections, or is being supported
> my the machinations of the Fed. In either case, what in the past
> have proven to be useful tools are being compromised, if not castrated,
> in the current setting.
>
> The market is clearly overbought and has risen to unsustainable levels.
> It was first better than expected earnings, then it was the growth
> of China, then it was about housing and other reports, then it was
> we sold a few more cars through the clunker program and now we are
> starting to take stock of the basics. They have remained unchanged
> and over the long-run these cannot be abrogated by either liquidity
> or complicity.
>
> Growth in China is in serious jeopardy and central authorities are
> genuinely concerned about creation of excess capacity and speculation
> in commodities, casino's and equities. Recent policy actions, designed
> to mute some of the excesses, has been initiated over concern of
> these excesses and the larger unspoken concern over the financial
> health of the economy. Corporations with deteriorating earnings are
> borrowing more money; under usual conditions they would be denied
> additional credit. In parallel, banks are concealing non-performing
> loans through rolling them over. Some smart people, including Micheal
> Grant, think China is a ticking time bomb.
>
> Meanwhile, stateside, the core problems of underemployment, consumer
> spending and bankiing sector health remain unchanged.
> To an extent consumer spending and underemployment are intertwined;
> but even if consumers, who have jobs, were not frightened by the
> economy and the administration's policies they would still want to
> save and liquidate debt therby containing spending. Prospects for
> the unemployed are miserable and, unfortunately, government and the
> apparatchiks of MSM do nothing to either clarify or correct the resports
> released federal departments and agencies. The bottom line is hiring
> is still trending down amid a growing potential labor force.
>
> If China follows the path of Japan, the model country that could
> do no wrong until 1989, and the US consumer spending continues to
> contract, what will be the catalyst to spur growth and profits? Many
> times people when confronted by such a question will resort to bromides
> that touch upon ingenuity, creativity and innovation but it is easy
> to forget that these essential qualities must be nurtured.
> A solid investment environment depends on a strong and stable currency,
> restrained federal spending, less harmful legislation, dependable
> contract law, limits on taxation and countercyclical capital regulation.
>
>
> In my humble view things, when looking around the corner, appear
> rather bleak.
>
>
> ]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 11:45:25 -0400 Thank you Cautious Investor for hitting it on the head and writing in such an articulate manner.


On Aug 29 10:23 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> A host of the technical indicators I use have been warnings but this
> market is being driven by historically unique forces, including massive
> deficits and proportionate liquidity injections, or is being supported
> my the machinations of the Fed. In either case, what in the past
> have proven to be useful tools are being compromised, if not castrated,
> in the current setting.
>
> The market is clearly overbought and has risen to unsustainable levels.
> It was first better than expected earnings, then it was the growth
> of China, then it was about housing and other reports, then it was
> we sold a few more cars through the clunker program and now we are
> starting to take stock of the basics. They have remained unchanged
> and over the long-run these cannot be abrogated by either liquidity
> or complicity.
>
> Growth in China is in serious jeopardy and central authorities are
> genuinely concerned about creation of excess capacity and speculation
> in commodities, casino's and equities. Recent policy actions, designed
> to mute some of the excesses, has been initiated over concern of
> these excesses and the larger unspoken concern over the financial
> health of the economy. Corporations with deteriorating earnings are
> borrowing more money; under usual conditions they would be denied
> additional credit. In parallel, banks are concealing non-performing
> loans through rolling them over. Some smart people, including Micheal
> Grant, think China is a ticking time bomb.
>
> Meanwhile, stateside, the core problems of underemployment, consumer
> spending and bankiing sector health remain unchanged.
> To an extent consumer spending and underemployment are intertwined;
> but even if consumers, who have jobs, were not frightened by the
> economy and the administration's policies they would still want to
> save and liquidate debt therby containing spending. Prospects for
> the unemployed are miserable and, unfortunately, government and the
> apparatchiks of MSM do nothing to either clarify or correct the resports
> released federal departments and agencies. The bottom line is hiring
> is still trending down amid a growing potential labor force.
>
> If China follows the path of Japan, the model country that could
> do no wrong until 1989, and the US consumer spending continues to
> contract, what will be the catalyst to spur growth and profits? Many
> times people when confronted by such a question will resort to bromides
> that touch upon ingenuity, creativity and innovation but it is easy
> to forget that these essential qualities must be nurtured.
> A solid investment environment depends on a strong and stable currency,
> restrained federal spending, less harmful legislation, dependable
> contract law, limits on taxation and countercyclical capital regulation.
>
>
> In my humble view things, when looking around the corner, appear
> rather bleak.
>
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151347-the-age-of-turbulence-preparing-for-the-crash?source=feed#comment-603367 603367

On Jul 27 12:47 AM Larry House wrote:

> I would think the inherent difficulty in making predictions about
> the future would give you pause about making predictions, but I guess
> not.]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 09:29:45 -0400

On Jul 27 12:47 AM Larry House wrote:

> I would think the inherent difficulty in making predictions about
> the future would give you pause about making predictions, but I guess
> not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148262-austrian-school-of-economics-is-on-the-rise?source=feed#comment-584311 584311 Sun, 12 Jul 2009 10:34:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148220-time-for-income-time-for-bonds?source=feed#comment-584278 584278
Regardless, Mr. Courtenary's assertion: "Only you can decide the best place for your money" is the only sure thing, understanding that you may be wrong. Investing is a chess game.]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 10:13:05 -0400
Regardless, Mr. Courtenary's assertion: "Only you can decide the best place for your money" is the only sure thing, understanding that you may be wrong. Investing is a chess game.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147441-what-would-happen-if-the-cftc-limited-energy-speculation?source=feed#comment-577473 577473 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:30:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147441-what-would-happen-if-the-cftc-limited-energy-speculation?source=feed#comment-577469 577469 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:29:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146339-aig-mixed-signals-and-blind-pools?source=feed#comment-572633 572633 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:36:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146403-madoff-s-investors-don-t-deserve-compensation-or-sympathy?source=feed#comment-571752 571752 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:36:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146687-there-s-no-lying-in-government-statistics-the-labor-market-is-still-down?source=feed#comment-571643 571643 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:58:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144099-jim-rogers-shares-his-thoughts-on-the-market?source=feed#comment-560690 560690 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:53:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133589-donald-luskin-gold-and-the-upside-down-bell-curve?source=feed#comment-481482 481482 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:39:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133177-high-yield-market-jumps-the-shark-on-record-low-recoveries?source=feed#comment-478012 478012 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 13:42:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128555-considering-the-widespread-suppression-of-free-markets?source=feed#comment-446259 446259 Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:28:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120924-how-ge-compares-to-other-banks?source=feed#comment-393800 393800 Wed, 18 Feb 2009 13:36:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113198-manufacturing-collapse-reminiscent-of-great-depression-s-beginning?source=feed#comment-347273 347273

On Jan 05 11:26 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> >> "an equal number of blogs which tell us that today is 'the investment
> opportunity of a lifetime.'" >>
>
> It is important to keep in mind that it's not an either/or proposition.
> Many fortunes were made during the Great Depession. In ALL market
> conditions there are winners as well as losers.
>
> Even if the economy tanks, there will be companies that do well.
> The challenge is to find the gems in the multitude of losers. The
> process never changes but the odds get slimmer as the economy gets
> weaker.]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:11:28 -0500

On Jan 05 11:26 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> >> "an equal number of blogs which tell us that today is 'the investment
> opportunity of a lifetime.'" >>
>
> It is important to keep in mind that it's not an either/or proposition.
> Many fortunes were made during the Great Depession. In ALL market
> conditions there are winners as well as losers.
>
> Even if the economy tanks, there will be companies that do well.
> The challenge is to find the gems in the multitude of losers. The
> process never changes but the odds get slimmer as the economy gets
> weaker.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113149-gold-recycling-threatens-demand-supply-equation?source=feed#comment-346286 346286
Having said that, this article by Mr. Saxena is an excellent analysis of short term supply and demand factors which clearly affect short term cycles. His point that the downfall in demand in India is not a positive sign for gold bugs seems logically based. In any event, those who play short term cycles may profit or lose, but for long-term investors, gold is one poor investment, one that history has well-established is a lost economic opportunity.

For those in difficult economic times who believe that gold is a safe haven for a feared econmic implosion, perhaps they do not understand that a total golbal economic collapse would destroy the value of all investment assets, including gold. Faith in the future is what life and investing comes down to.]]> Mon, 05 Jan 2009 09:49:26 -0500
Having said that, this article by Mr. Saxena is an excellent analysis of short term supply and demand factors which clearly affect short term cycles. His point that the downfall in demand in India is not a positive sign for gold bugs seems logically based. In any event, those who play short term cycles may profit or lose, but for long-term investors, gold is one poor investment, one that history has well-established is a lost economic opportunity.

For those in difficult economic times who believe that gold is a safe haven for a feared econmic implosion, perhaps they do not understand that a total golbal economic collapse would destroy the value of all investment assets, including gold. Faith in the future is what life and investing comes down to.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112979-the-riskiness-of-bonds?source=feed#comment-344380 344380 Fri, 02 Jan 2009 13:51:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112921-ge-s-dilemma-sensible-business-vs-rating-at-any-cost?source=feed#comment-344153 344153
However, speculators in shorts often get burned badly and shorting GE might be one of those situations. The good news is that Mr.Saxena is not advocating investors run to Treasuries and jump over a cliff.

By the way I have no troouble with Mr. Saxena being a short seller in GE and writing this article. It is very helpful for investors to know that those who write articles often are explaining their own investment moves.


On Jan 02 06:51 AM p4jain wrote:

> Rakesh, I agree with shorting GE and staying short. But shorting
> GE with a dividend of 7% and holding shorts till mid 2009 means you
> are going to PAY significant dividend shorting GE. However, shorting
> SPY and ETF are good idea or buying SKF is better. No dividends.
> How do you deal with paying the dividends for the shorts you hold?]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 10:35:27 -0500
However, speculators in shorts often get burned badly and shorting GE might be one of those situations. The good news is that Mr.Saxena is not advocating investors run to Treasuries and jump over a cliff.

By the way I have no troouble with Mr. Saxena being a short seller in GE and writing this article. It is very helpful for investors to know that those who write articles often are explaining their own investment moves.


On Jan 02 06:51 AM p4jain wrote:

> Rakesh, I agree with shorting GE and staying short. But shorting
> GE with a dividend of 7% and holding shorts till mid 2009 means you
> are going to PAY significant dividend shorting GE. However, shorting
> SPY and ETF are good idea or buying SKF is better. No dividends.
> How do you deal with paying the dividends for the shorts you hold?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112829-three-views-of-three-big-failures?source=feed#comment-342854 342854
I wish you had been working for Moodys and Standard & Poor who through last summer rated AIG "AAA." I did not do my homework this past July and August when I decided to purchase AIG then prime-rated bonds. I bought them based on their comparative high yields to maturity, never thinking for a moment the issuer might be in deep distress. I should have done a thorough investigation, knowing that ratings tned to be much more accurate retrspectivly than prospectively. Given the ratings and the notion that the world's largest global insurance company cannot go under (or need a bailout that probably will not work) I chased yields as it turned out were too good to be true. . I assumed without any checking that AIG had a reasonably good balance sheet, further assuming that new cash would be flowing in as is typical in most insurance underwriting businesses. And finally, knowing that Buffet has favored insurance companies in his BH portfolios, I kidded myself in thinking "I could be like Warren." Not this time. In any event, you comments on AIG in particular were enlightening fopr me. Reading the piece was humbling. ]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 15:48:31 -0500
I wish you had been working for Moodys and Standard & Poor who through last summer rated AIG "AAA." I did not do my homework this past July and August when I decided to purchase AIG then prime-rated bonds. I bought them based on their comparative high yields to maturity, never thinking for a moment the issuer might be in deep distress. I should have done a thorough investigation, knowing that ratings tned to be much more accurate retrspectivly than prospectively. Given the ratings and the notion that the world's largest global insurance company cannot go under (or need a bailout that probably will not work) I chased yields as it turned out were too good to be true. . I assumed without any checking that AIG had a reasonably good balance sheet, further assuming that new cash would be flowing in as is typical in most insurance underwriting businesses. And finally, knowing that Buffet has favored insurance companies in his BH portfolios, I kidded myself in thinking "I could be like Warren." Not this time. In any event, you comments on AIG in particular were enlightening fopr me. Reading the piece was humbling. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112796-is-buying-bonds-really-a-good-idea?source=feed#comment-342464 342464
When you write that conventional wisdom is that bonds have been safer than stocks, then add, "this may no longer be the case," you are assuming that today's global financial crisis is transformative unlike any other in history. I think not. We have short memories and great financial havoc has besat this country many times before, not just in the 1930s. True, each recession and depression is different, but one thing they have in common is that each ends and the normal rules of investing and safety return.

That being said, consider that a few insightful and far-looking buyers in the Great Depression purchased defaulted general obligation municipal bonds. They understood that at some point the issuers had to pay off those obligations. New York City, Florida, etc., could not be liquidated. Consequently, fortunes were made by investors who understood the difference between short and long term risk and who, above all else, had the means and the PATIENCE to wait it out. To invest in U.S. Treasuries right now, I agree, may be the worst possible time. But it is wrong to tie long-term Treasury investments in investment grade (versus distressed) bonds. Both general obligation municipal bonds and investment grade bonds may ebe the best long-term investments (vis-a-vis speculations) available today.

Yes, I know most of us have serious doubts about Moody's and Standard & Poor ratings, but they assess the financial risks of companies on the whole very well, with a few huge exceptions notwithstanding such as AIG. Still, when one invests in bonds in companies such as CT or GE and holds them until maturity, that would be be more prudentfor a conservative investor (more than ever will be around for the than in vesting in stocks and holding them for the next decade.

Nonetheless, your article expressing investors be cautious when it comes to bonds is correct, but the thesis does not extend to the entire class as you have suggested.]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:23:48 -0500
When you write that conventional wisdom is that bonds have been safer than stocks, then add, "this may no longer be the case," you are assuming that today's global financial crisis is transformative unlike any other in history. I think not. We have short memories and great financial havoc has besat this country many times before, not just in the 1930s. True, each recession and depression is different, but one thing they have in common is that each ends and the normal rules of investing and safety return.

That being said, consider that a few insightful and far-looking buyers in the Great Depression purchased defaulted general obligation municipal bonds. They understood that at some point the issuers had to pay off those obligations. New York City, Florida, etc., could not be liquidated. Consequently, fortunes were made by investors who understood the difference between short and long term risk and who, above all else, had the means and the PATIENCE to wait it out. To invest in U.S. Treasuries right now, I agree, may be the worst possible time. But it is wrong to tie long-term Treasury investments in investment grade (versus distressed) bonds. Both general obligation municipal bonds and investment grade bonds may ebe the best long-term investments (vis-a-vis speculations) available today.

Yes, I know most of us have serious doubts about Moody's and Standard & Poor ratings, but they assess the financial risks of companies on the whole very well, with a few huge exceptions notwithstanding such as AIG. Still, when one invests in bonds in companies such as CT or GE and holds them until maturity, that would be be more prudentfor a conservative investor (more than ever will be around for the than in vesting in stocks and holding them for the next decade.

Nonetheless, your article expressing investors be cautious when it comes to bonds is correct, but the thesis does not extend to the entire class as you have suggested.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112774-australian-dollar-preparing-to-break-out?source=feed#comment-342343 342343 Wed, 31 Dec 2008 08:58:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112776-the-great-depression-vs-today-s-economic-crisis?source=feed#comment-342333 342333
I agree with Mr. Patel that a major difference is the government's ability to create more infusion of dollars through bailouts not hampered by any gold standard. I think he is right in pointing out that printing dollars that have and will continue to take place over the foreseeable furtue will increase significantley the risk of deflation of the dollar which in turn will lead to inflation and continued difficult economic times for the world economy -- especially the U.S. for extended period of time.]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 08:43:33 -0500
I agree with Mr. Patel that a major difference is the government's ability to create more infusion of dollars through bailouts not hampered by any gold standard. I think he is right in pointing out that printing dollars that have and will continue to take place over the foreseeable furtue will increase significantley the risk of deflation of the dollar which in turn will lead to inflation and continued difficult economic times for the world economy -- especially the U.S. for extended period of time.]]>