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Today in Commodities: Dollar in the Driver's Seat

Yes, it seems likely that the next two contract months for UNG will be disappointing, but "all things eventually return to the mean." Natural gas futures will rise -- of course, the only issue is when. At this point with UNG near $11.00, suppose one goes long and it falls to $9.00 within the next few weeks, I suggest that may only be a paper loss of less than 20%, and falling to $9.00 intuitively to me seems unlikely. But, when UNG rises, though probably never getting near its near $65 high of about two years ago, it is not unthinkable that it will provide investors with a very good long-term capital gain from its current level. Yes, I am long UNG and have bought bits and pieces as it has been going down. And yes, I may look up and see the knife falling on me. That's risk/reward.