capgain

23 Comments

    • ON: Mon Oct 13th 14:00 PM
      Commented on:
      CNBC's Gasparino Problem
      It sounds like Mr. Salmon has more than a philosophical problem with Gasparino.
      Chucky G is hardly a right-wing nut case; I've listened to him light into the current administration as well as the left. Importantly, however, he does regularly analyze and explain quite intelligently the often under-reported consequences of the actions of those whose hands are now on the financial throttle.

      Quite frankly, I think we're being driven headlong toward a precipice, and Gasparino is just identifying the terrain along the way. Does Mr Salmon not recognize that we are on a dangerous journey?
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    • ON: Fri Oct 10th 13:52 PM
      Commented on:
      The Short Case for General Electric
      Let's not forget old Warren's mantra....."Be greedy when others panic....."

      I'm sorry, I just couldn't help it. In addition to adding to my GE position @ under $20, I also added Jan 2010 calls at $20 and at $25. I've lived through at least five serious "crashes", but this one is so over-hyped it is almost ready for the daytime soaps!!! We might not be at "the bottom", but remember....no one rings a bell when you get there!!!
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    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 10:26 AM
      Commented on:
      Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess
      Very thoughtful effort. It is all too easy to get caught up in the "We have to do this $800 B rescue plan or the markets will collapse" fervor, but there ARE alternatives that deserve consideration. Right now there is roughly three trillion in "idle" capital just sitting on the sidelines waiting for the dust to settle. Some of that is mine and, like T Boone, I "have a plan."

      With one easy move by our genius legislators in DC, we the investing public will be able to say to the Paulson posse, "Thanks, but no thanks!!" All they have to do is lower the capital gains tax to ZERO for ten years. You can almost see and hear that three trillion racing by!

      A far-out idea, perhaps, but the unpalatable alternative is to have the govt control another hugely important aspect of our lives.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 17th 10:39 AM
      Commented on:
      GE: Struggling Short-Term, But Should Do Fine Long-Term
      So what if Lehman owned $500 MM GE shares?? That has no effect on GE's share price. The price pressure on GE stock is what I have characterized over many years as "lemmingfear"... It is about as meaningful as last Thursday's newspaper! If you are long GE, just remember why you took that position. Was your reasoning incorrect? Is the company so badly impacted by the current turmoil? Or is it in an enviable position to perhaps pick up some bargain-priced assets?

      Having just bought a fistful of Jan 2010 in-the-money calls at panic prices, I am going back to work and then going on vacation without having to worry about this Chicken Little operetta.
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    • ON: Thu Aug 14th 10:56 AM
      Commented on:
      Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan
      This is perhaps the most important discussion that can take place; the very survival of our country as an independent political and social leader in the world is all that is at stake!!

      I have read the Pickens Plan. It is not perfect, but it is viable and, more importantly, it is the only thoughtful framework that is on the table right now. We would be foolish to nit-pick it into oblivion just because it isn't "the" solution for all time. To paraphrase, let not perfection be the fatal enemy of the possible. For purposes of discussion, let me state from the outset that I hold positions in CLNE, GE, and PWR.

      First, the obvious: Having hamstrung ourselves by limiting severely our production of fossil fuels domestically, we are vulnerable to the political and often fanatical whims of those who are not our very best friends. Worse, we are obliged to fund their "whims" at levels that are obscene. We should start today - this morning - to develop every viable alternative imaginable. This includes drilling for crude oil and natural gas. It also should include hydrogen fuel cells, compressed LNG, bio-fuels, nuclear, solar, geothermal and probably a half dozen that I haven't even heard of. Make no mistake about it....this is a matter of our survival as a free nation, and the environmentalists who have established themselves as the self-appointed "guardians of our planet" will have to just step aside and let the realists work to ensure that they will have enough power tomorrow to light and heat their own
      "Save the Planet" offices.

      We can and must do anything and everything to maintain our independence. And we must face the fact that we have become our own worst enemies. The petty partisan political theater in Washington has gone beyond acceptability! No matter which side of the political aisle each of us identifies with, we can no longer afford to be red or blue; we must insist, loudly and clearly, that our ensconced representatives in DC stop playing the roles of good Republicans and Democrats and start behaving like good Americans! The only thing hanging in the balance is our nation!!!
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    • ON: Thu Aug 7th 10:05 AM
      Commented on:
      Wind Turbines: The New Renewable Bull Market
      Both the article and the comments are well thought out. Whether the limiting factor will be the over-taxed current production facilities, the political strictures, the high cap-ex to ramp up production, or, for the average investor, the hesitation to invest in pink-sheet companies, there is a way to cash in. Fatwollit is on the right track, and I offer another common-sense alternative. No matter who produces the wind generated power, and no matter where it is harnessed, it has to be delivered to the grid to monetize it. The industry leader here is Quanta (PWR) and I like companies whose products/services are in demand worldwide!
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    • ON: Tue Jul 29th 12:56 PM
      Commented on:
      Looking for the Perfect Dividend Stock
      Any listing of high-yields should include BAC @ 8%!
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    • ON: Fri Jun 27th 09:49 AM
      Commented on:
      Adding to My GE Position
      Davy:
      Your assessment is valid, if a bit tepid. Most investors (especially the "professionals&qu... are mentally lazy lemmings who run to follow the crowd. Just as you have disclosed what part GE plays in your portfolio, I am happy to do the same.......it is my largest single holding by far, and has been for the last 40 years, and the lemmings who sold yesterday sold to......me.

      Having made clear that I value this as a smart investment, let me be fair and opine that GE is a sub-$30 stock now for two identifiable reasons. The first is cited above.....the lemming factor. The second is a consequence of its timidity years ago. For those readers who have a fair recollection of history, think back to GE's attempt to buy Honeywell. This was an acquisition that rivaled sunshine in its brilliance. And GE backed down in the face of protectionist EEC opposition! When the EEC said "Tut, tut" and "Nein, nein", GE said "Uncle" instead of "#@^& you" and that was the beginning of its slide toward $30. (Are you listening, MSFT?)

      It continues to both amaze and disappoint me that the powerhouses such as GE, MSFT, and UTX continue to knuckle under to the lilliputians and the tree-huggers to their own detriment.

      Now fast-forward to today, and you will see why GE is still a good investment. Who is taking the lead in developing potable water, wind-generated power and fuel-efficient engines? Right! Now if only they would also focus on fuel cell technology, the obvious answer to our imported oil morass.

      Davy, continue to tell it like it is......and don't be afraid to be right!
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    • ON: Thu Jun 19th 11:07 AM
      Commented on:
      Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part V)
      AW: As you know, I have been following your series on MNKD with interest. This section is particularly impressive; your obvious intelligence and the depth of the technical research you've brought to the surface for us is a welcome change from the more common lip-flapping that often passes for "research" or advice. Thank you.

      My investment in MNKD has lost 75% of its value, but I have not sold out as I normally would in weeding out the "losers". Perhaps I should have, but there is something over-arching about Dr. Mann's absolute commitment to this dream that is contagious. You have focused so well on the nuts and bolts; I am yielding to a rare gut feeling that again and again stops me from selling out. We may have taken different paths to get where we are, and your route is certainly more defensible, but the few times I've trusted my gut have been rewarding!
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    • ON: Mon Jun 9th 11:54 AM
      Commented on:
      Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part I)
      A.W., your well-written overview of the logistics of Technosphere is appreciated. I went long MNKD at around $12 and have not baled out for several reasons, not the least of which is the promise that this protocol just SHOULD work, for many of the reasons you cite. However, more importantly, I give a lot of weight to Dr. Mann's history of creating successful therapies and monetizing them and the fact that he has plowed hundreds of millions of his own $s into this project. I would hope that your further analysis of MNKD would include a history of his past efforts.

      But I am not naive. Just as the Edsel was a technologically advanced car when introduced, it never gained traction (no pun intended) because Ford quit early in the marketing effort. In order for Technosphere to be a commercial success, Dr. Mann will have to partner up with at least one of the majors to market it, and a few of them have now experienced failure with their own efforts.

      I look forward to your further analysis...and congratulations on buying in when you did!
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    • ON: Fri May 30th 14:56 PM
      Commented on:
      Will GE Drop Below $30?
      Earlier today, "notdumb" correctly pointed out GE's involvement in wind energy. I believe that this, along with their continuing presence in turbine, locomotive,airplane engine,finance, etc. will pale in comparison to their dominant position being established worldwide in potable water. Jeff Immelt has not been shy about shedding the sacred cows like plastics,appliances in favor of meeting the planet's needs tomorrow for water, renewable energy, etc.

      While he did get taken to the woodshed last qtr for disappointing the street, you do have to sit up and take notice when a guy believes strongly enough in what he is doing to back up the Brinks truck the way he has to buy his own stock with his own after-tax dollars!

      My grandchildren should start sending him thank-you notes now.
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    • ON: Fri May 30th 10:18 AM
      Commented on:
      Will GE Drop Below $30?
      One of the strengths of a free capitalistic society is that anyone is free to opine on any subject; it is up to the listener/reader to determine just how much credence to give it. In this case, Ant & Sons has an unimpressive provenance and the opinion expressed is similarly less than impressive. The writer should be sure to call Jeff Immelt and tell him to "get right to it!"
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    • ON: Fri May 30th 08:36 AM
      Commented on:
      The Case for AIG - Patience Required
      Writer will be shown to be correct if and when the Board boots Sullivan out the door! He's in a job that is much too big for him and nothing is going to turn around until a new captain takes the helm. Thanks to Spitzer's megalomania and Sullivan"s ineptitude, $80 billion has been vaporized. That's a long, long road to come back.
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    • ON: Wed May 28th 12:17 PM
      Commented on:
      Dow: An Undervalued 5-Star Market
      It's tough to argue with Mr. Johnson's assessment of these major players; most of them are in my portfolio and I am very willing for him to be right! However, AIG (my second largest holding) is problematic. This company is like an out-of-control freight train heading for almost certain disaster. Sullivan is so far over his head it is shameful. It's hard to believe but a good $80 billion has been vaporized to date and I don't see who/ what is going to step in to effect a change in course.

      Your over-all take on the major players you mention is probably correct with this one exception.....it almost makes me gag to have to look at the reality of AIG; right now it is OVER-VALUED!!!
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    • ON: Thu May 22nd 11:29 AM
      Commented on:
      AIG: Are the Losses Accelerating?
      "Prudent" and Paul Price both make valid observations. AIG is like a champion athlete who has been laid low by a devastating virus. A whole bunch of things seem to be sapping the life out of it simultaneously. Sullivan is in over his head; this is just too big a job for him. We can only hope that the board is looking around for a Lee Iacocca or a Jack Welch.

      The news today that the Jax Police/Fire Pension Fund has filed suit is not surprising....and there will be others. The fact that what has been marked down today will be gradually marked back up tomorrow is lost on the knee-jerkers. The myopic never grasp that life goes on beyond the next twenty six minutes!

      I prefer to take a longer view......and it ain't so good either! We are watching our economy collapse around us, shipping boatloads of our treasury to our enemies overseas while our infuriatingly inept and partisan congress decimates our domestic buying power by sucking up to a farm lobby that must know where every body is buried.

      But step back and re-focus. If you truly take a long-term view, it will be the AIGs and the GEs and the MSFTs that will withstand the ineptitudes of our government and the maggot-like attacks by the likes of the Jax funds. These large-caps might still see some more selling pressure, but I'll remain long and add to them opportunistically.
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