trance_dude

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    • Lessons Learned from 'March Madness' [view article]
      yes, but the expected value of any given free throw is still 0.7 points, and the expected value of sending that shooter to the line for two shots is still 1.4 points.

      what you said about the shooter only making both shots 49% of the time is true, but you are ignoring the two cases where he makes one and misses the other. That happens 42% of the time. He'll miss both shots 9% of the time. Add up those probabilities times the points and you get an average of 1.4 points per trip to the line.

      the point being - over the long run continually sending this guy to the line is still a bad deal. a good shooter will shoot 50% from 2-point land, making the expected value only 1 point per shot. a good 3-point shooter in college might shoot 35%, also making the expected value around 1 point per shot. That's why coaches don't use the fouling strategy until time constraints become an issue.

      the situation you describe might be relevant in very specific circumstances, like say the opposing team MUST make 2 consecutive free throws to tie the game. but i do not think the analogy translates well to the investing situation you described. In fact, ask any trader or blackjack player and they will tell you that being right 70% of the time would be a VERY big edge.
       Apr 08 12:09 PM
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