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  • Herbalife Share Buybacks: A Fool's Errand?  [View article]
    Like I said Nice research Matt.

    I see bankers pulling the plug or joining the list.

    Feb 1, 2013. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Share Buybacks: A Fool's Errand?  [View article]
    "Loan covenants"

    "Borrowed money ALWAYS has terms...Losing money is not one of them."

    nice research Matt.
    Feb 1, 2013. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Herbalife Short Squeeze Would Work  [View article]
    Only a Fool thinks this company has any value.

    "We think today's actions are the beginning of the end of one of the most prolific pyramid schemes operating in North America," Conway said.

    About 94 percent of Fortune Hi-Tech members quit after one year, and 99 percent of members are at the lowest two levels of the company, he said.

    While these organizations are called pyramids, "it's really way more like an iceberg; only a tiny percent is above water," Baker said.

    Read more here: http://bit.ly/YEIljc
    Jan 30, 2013. 01:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Hedge Fund Porn, Part II  [View article]
    I like the low odds on Double Zero. I have mine pegged much higher.

    Just look at the Forward P/E which is based on New Blood Recruits who won't use the products within a year. I always look at both sides but I think Ackman wins.

    How can there even be Forward Looking Anything?
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is A Short - Goodwill Hunting  [View article]
    Bravo... Bravo.... Well spoken.
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TVIX Hits All-Time Low Despite Market Weakness  [View article]
    TVIX/UVXY is doomed and will go to zero w/o splits. As a professional I wonder about the Reverse Split that SHOULD have occurred at higher prices. This is foreshadowing.

    The message is clear. There will be no more TVIX.


    If CS wanted this alive they would of reversed split this which causes instant Creation Units or reversion to NAV which really sticks you even more.

    TVIX holders need a BLACK SWAN event to keep this above 10 and out of the danger zone......which could happen with IRAN.

    MY advice is to roll over into UVXY or better yet just buy the front month instead of getting contangoed to death; or regroup for another day in something else.

    99.99% of you have no idea of what TVIX is or how its tracked. If you did you'd be a net seller. Part of responsibility is taking losses.

    Are you ready to take a loss or will you lose the whole thing and blame anybody else but you?

    TVIX does not care about Volume or who buys it or who sells it. When I see Charts with Volume it makes me cringe. It's based on a volume weighted formula that only a rocket scientist can figure out here.

    Yes, it can go up based upon the SP Vol of ITM calls/Puts which Vix Futures track of which TVIX tracks of which you track.

    Who's on first.... Third base. Lou Costello.
    Jul 3, 2012. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short TVIX: The Ultimate VIX Contango Trade  [View article]
    Let me add just one point that is most important that you missed. I don't care about anything else.

    Reverse Split = Parity

    I too will do Stat ARB but only when SPX breaks. The last time this happened Quants got blown to hell. Once bitten twice shy, but the trade makes total sense, maybe not financial, but I'm planning on that STAT ARB soon. Reverse SPLIT looming.....

    Current Premium at Close 21.3702%
    "Delta Neutral with Leg break on TVIX side after Reverse Split"

    Thank you
    Hope this helps.
    Jun 20, 2012. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Buy Of The Decade  [View article]
    I trade Futures on Nat Gas. While I believe Nat GAs will go higher its already priced in with Contango. Also , note that any price above 2.80Mbtu July - Energy companies speak coal, hence a build again.

    Long term yes, but this pop was sold off back in Jan when Nat Gas went 13.5%.

    In the end, Nat GAs retraced 80% of that Pop. Will it do the same this time? maybe it's different this time due to the Rig counts dropping but expect nothing big here.
    Jun 17, 2012. 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About $580M pulled out of the largest VIX ETF (VXX) since the market began heading down in late March gives strength to the idea the fund is less about speculation, more about hedging. "If history is any guide, a spike in VIX would result in significant redemptions of VIX products," said Barclays' Maneesh Deshpande back in April. Correct.   [View news story]
    I will argue the other side. "The fund is less about speculation, more about hedging." If hedging was used utilizing the VIXX then equities should of been sold in nominal dollars ratios for confirmation of the $580M pulled out. Statement is true but only one side.

    Now for the Jamie Diamond response: Yes, absolutely it's for hedging. We need more hedging products like the VXX who's contango wiped out lazy Muppets investors. If the Muppets only understood the Contango DANCE...... Dance until you pass out and slam your head on the floor; they would just say NO and Go like Crack. But hey, then again what investor takes responsibility for his own stupid actions? When People finally take full responsibility I think I can say my life is complete but until then I will watch the Flies get Zapped into the Blue Light of the VXX. No matter how many Mosquitoes die they just keep coming back! Yeah isn't that funny?

    Yesterday P/C Ratio at .31 was last seen AUG 08, 2011 at or near the bottom of SPX. Here we are again.

    This time it's different.......No Money, No Jobs, Obama, and my Wife took my money. :)

    Happy Trading.
    Jun 5, 2012. 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Stimulus To Follow  [View article]
    AUD.USD drop ten large and still going. I think even with QE she hits 70's... they are cutting too. Stick with metals.
    Jun 1, 2012. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Stimulus To Follow  [View article]
    CBOE put to Call at 1.37 indicates a near Bottom as seen during March 2009. I wish I didn't get stop out on my short of OIL at 107. I too have been lurking on the sides but this time it will be long.

    QE3 may scare the markets not really sure if anything but gold is a buy. QE3 could be dangerous really dangerous but we won't know.

    I'd rather have them do nothing until Europe is on fire..which it will be!
    Jun 1, 2012. 08:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Flowers Soon To Wilt - Time To Short UNG  [View article]
    Nat Gas Shorts at Highest levels

    Natural Gas rig Count At Record Low

    While the above methodology made sense it no longer does when you factor in the above referenced links.

    Not to mention that Power companies have gleefully switched to NAT GAS due to to lower price which in turn will create draws. Also since nat gas companies can't make a dime they simply turn off the rigs which we have seen.

    Now, NAT GAS at this time of writing is probably my best play of the year. A pefect setup. record heat? record shorts! and lower rigs.

    This will end ulgy for anyone considering shorting when you know NAT GAS is being man handled for higher prices!

    DayTraders maybe.... but long the front and near seems logical.

    I hope you saw that big short covering last week. More to come as the traps have been set.

    Long as of yesterday until 27th June! :) PAID
    Jun 1, 2012. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Crude Still Falling  [View article]
    F Crude.....Nat Gas is the new crude.

    Redrum is word of crude traders.

    Probably 90 will hold but the US FED wants it lower.

    Good luck
    May 19, 2012. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Peak Of Fear  [View article]
    Mkt fear at highest levels since March 09. Vix predicting 100 point S/P drop or rise within the next 30days. Personally, I went long based on my numbers but got sledged hammered to the face Friday.
    Fear is getting hotter still.

    It's "OMG F^%king Sell" or "I do Gods work".


    Good Luck with Greece.
    May 19, 2012. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some perspective on the move out of risk and into fear: The VIX is up 47.5% since May 1 and the put/call option ratio and put option volume are at their highest since the August 2011 panic. Of 13 trading days in May, the S&P has been down on 10. A tradeable bottom? Maybe, but the VIX is nowhere near its 2011 high. (see also)   [View news story]
    Vol is at highest. Total Equities Put to Calls at 1.45 signaling a bottom.
    Vix Front signals 98 point rise/fall in SP within next 30days. I'd tend to error on side of long the market. Happy Trading.
    May 18, 2012. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment