David in D

How Much More Will Housing Prices Decline?

I think we have much further to fall than 8-10% based on many factors not accounted for in the post. Even if I do limit my analysis to the data presented in the post, your calculations are incorrect.

Price to Rent ratios bottomed at approximately 0.97 on the graph (let's just call it 1.0) the graph reflects 1.3 at the end of the 3Q 2008 off from 1.75 at the high. (1.75-1.3=0.45, 0.45/1.75-1.0=0.60). Therefore, based on you own data, to the end of Q3 6/10s of the drop has occured. Total drop = 19.1% 1/.6 = 32%. Therefore, based on your own data, total drop is roughly 13% from the bottom.

I for one, think we have even further to go... probably in the range of 18% -- definitely not 8-10% and probably not 13%.