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obkozranch@aol.com

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  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals: Key Drug Fusilev May Face Generic Competition Soon [View article]
    I'm long here to and giving them a pass also. If it craters I will buy buy buy. That said, have I got this right: In my honest opinion, doing years of due diligence = IMHODYODD. Wow, is all I can say, quite tasty.
    kenn
    long @ 7btw

    May I ask, have you gave a thought to the 10M share dilution? I know it's priced at 10.50 (warrants into shares), and they have a gimmicky hedge at 14$ with Bank of Canada to offset this, but could any been triggered by the huge volume after the pre july 4 approval we got? Could those warrants been converted then? We certainly saw upwards of 20M shares trading hands over those next few days. TIA
    Jul 28 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals: Key Drug Fusilev May Face Generic Competition Soon [View article]
    It always amazes me that some will write scathing commentary on a company they "will never touch even if it goes to $1." Your concern about others peoples money, is so noble, I think you should honored in some way.
    You had plausible cred until you wrote that.
    Keep on caring for other peoples money, I'm sure they will thank you much,
    kenn
    Jul 28 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below, Inc.: 50x P/E Too Rich For Xmas-Driven Discount Retailer [View article]
    It's going to be a long 3 months till next report, indeed.
    What could be the next date for news from FIVE? Joel taking his seat at his desk 6/20, or a fantastic 4th of July sales, or the opening of new stores, or mid Q3 guidance (although they have not done that in the past), or preliminary Q2 estimates.
    One thing is for sure FIVE has hit their numbers 100% of the time without fail, and mngt. guides conservatively. Point of fact from the last call by Ken Bull, CFO. Another is Q3 is the slowest Q.
    Will be very interesting to see just how hard the shorts work at keeping this down, because Feb. 2015 it's at a 30 PE, at 35$. That is guidance that will be proved, just extrapolating no upside other than the revenue from new stores opened. Shorts have already conceded they see 13% margins. So 4% guidance shows just how much money they spent (spend) on new hires and store openings. Ya hoo! I see no problem in the quick ratio on the short term debt question, that "The Street" puts out there. Especially since the President position and most openings are paid for now.
    kenn
    Jun 15 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below, Inc.: 50x P/E Too Rich For Xmas-Driven Discount Retailer [View article]
    At current levels the PE will be at 40 March 2015. I'll hang on to my shares and look to buy more if indeed you can push this down to 31, and then 27. I feel totally comfortable with being long here at 35$. FIVE will execute and will grow 30% per year without a hiccup. Your target is 26 which seems totally reasonable if they miss, but frankly all the expenses are accounted for in the current forecasts. The expansion of the NE DC from 200sq feet to 400 sq. feet is not and may result in a equity offer sometime later 2015. I believe the H/S (the mini h/s pattern - formed since FEB.) will fail propelling this back to mid forties. Risk reward here is good for 10 point gain from 35$. PT 45$ by 4th Q reporting early 2015.
    I'm laughing at this report as their whole thesis is based on what other discounters are doing, and WalMarts mini stores. Give me a break. Compare apples to apples please. Oh, you can't, because no one else is doing what FIVE is doing, and catering to the "fickle - niche" teenage market.
    kenn
    Jun 12 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below - Impressive Growth, Yet Premium Valuation Leaves Me Worried [View article]
    Umm btw, this has a forward PE of 30, not 40.
    kenn
    Jun 8 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below - Impressive Growth, Yet Premium Valuation Leaves Me Worried [View article]
    So is "The Street".com, saying comps are flat and a quick ratio of debt to equity suggests short term problems.
    I don't listen to these folks I do my own DD.
    kenn
    GLTU
    Jun 8 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below - Impressive Growth, Yet Premium Valuation Leaves Me Worried [View article]
    They also mention this is their strongest time of year when the kids get out of school, and the pool weather.
    kenn
    Jun 8 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Below - Impressive Growth, Yet Premium Valuation Leaves Me Worried [View article]
    You mention 19.5M in debt outstanding. I heard on the call the debt was paid and currently there is no debt. You talk about 3-4% comp sales, and on the call they specifically said the expenses of opening these 27 new stores are in the 3-4% comp sales expectations. So if you back that out once again you would have the higher 6-7% comp sales. Also on the call was the margin decline. This being attributed to head count or talent hire. It was said as the year goes margin decline would be flatten out yoy towards Q3 as majority of new store openings are in the first half. Distribution Center (the new one) is 33% capacity, margin will flatten as the DC is utilized more. These new stores are in the new DC area. "Growth engine is new stores: Plenty of runway ahead". Preopening Expenses drive down comps, and the second half won't have those expenses.

    "Top and Bottom lines consistently deliver, New and old stores consistently deliver. Key drivers of the margin decline is talent hire, 100% store productivity." Quoted from Ken Bull on the call. No price competition, just opening expenses.

    Cap Ex is 35M for the year and no debt. they ended the q with 17.8M in cash and no debt, and are generating 7+M in free cash flow. They have absolutely no liquidity issues.

    Everyone wants to poo poo 5Below, but facts are they are growing 30% per year and need to take on no financing, share issuance. The next time someone tells you their margins are declining, or their comps aren't up there, simply listen or read a transcript. The Street just downgraded this and are all over the place with buy, hold, or sell. They are citing the same store comps and debt to equity ratio as mentioned here. They say the quick ratio is .60, and the next day 6/6/2014 they say it's .30 . They did not listen to the call and the new store openings in the yoy quarters. Comparable yoy cannot be made as last years new store openings (19 for Q-2) are not the same as this years (27 for Q-2), and are expensed in the comps.

    I'm a buyer and will keep on buying,
    kenn

    Don't be fooled into thinking 5below is a sell, or a short.
    Jun 8 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Firing On All Cylinders, Yet Trading At A 52-Week Low - Sprouts Farmers Market [View article]
    Whole foods is expensive because they don't off regular produce cheaper than grocery stores, and always won't. I hate Whole foods, I have no money left over. I love Sprouts openness and bulk foods, chicken, lamb, turkey are all cheap. Fish is good but a little pricy and so is the lunch meat, but I always get a sandwich while shopping. Great lunch destination, with free coffee!
    Jun 5 03:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Firing On All Cylinders, Yet Trading At A 52-Week Low - Sprouts Farmers Market [View article]
    Insider selling is due to the large holdings of the Apollo capital group and certain insiders. I believe it is done for now. I shop there and wanted to buy the stock but did not till last Fri. @ 27$. Sprouts will grow into it's current PE of 60, and it's forward PE is 32 btw. A 32 PE on a 20% grower is perfect. Will only buy more at 23$. Another stock I like is EXXI. No worries here on SFM insider selling, and check out their latest presentation on their website. I like it. Only 170 stores of a unique style, I shop there and love the produce. Facts are it's not only organic, but the regular produce is a lot cheaper than anywhere! I always go for the produce but have found myself buying the meats too, chicken and turkey, veal. This chain is doing a great job at growth, look at the distribution centers. The whole east market is wide open for new stores.
    May 27 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Lack Of Strong Governance Is A Reason To Avoid The Stock [View article]
    I think Ms Barra is genuine, and you Sir have an ax to grind. I do not believe this is the same GM, and the forthright power of WOMEN CEOs will prove that out. GM will hit 50% higher, and they are immune from personal liability issues regarding this recall. With a 6B$ recall fund, GM will shine in 2014. Unfortunately so many will miss the run up as being too scared, and not understanding what's going on. Yes the old GM, run by MEN disregarded a quick, inexpensive fix, to a problem that caused many deaths. But make no mistake, it is apples and oranges, and this new GM is not the rotten apple you would have us believe. I want a new Camaro and Sting Ray. I'm so confident I bought 5500$ worth at 34, downside risk is 2.42$. I can live with that.
    I am very sad, sorry for any deaths that have occurred with the old GM. Make no mistake, my prayers are with them.
    kenn
    Mar 18 07:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Longbow Research's Downgrade Of SodaStream [View article]
    yes yes, manufacturing., my bad. Whatever happens, I'm long here, and will stay till 130$/share.
    Was looking at the EPS. Previous earnings for last 3 years all show the lowest for the quarter including Christmas. 24, 32, 44 respectively last 3 years. Why the lowest on the biggest shopping quarter? Advertising perhaps, and looking at the growth, to forecast this q's (ending 12/31), I'm guessing; ~.60?
    What's your knowledge if you don't mind? I saw that last .90 last q. I have to admit the numbers are all up, and consistently, I'm glad I bought. @ 144M per q, this will get interesting as it approaches 200+ per quarter.
    kenn
    Jan 2 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Longbow Research's Downgrade Of SodaStream [View article]
    Great, thank you. I've done a lot of research on SODA but not so much on Steifels ability to call this. Seems to me, everyone was not looking for a small rise in syrup sales, but I see more and more units sold. I like the new distribution center coming online, and the aggressive tone for Japan and Italy, and Brazil. Lets not forget the 1B$ mark 2016. So I was stumped as to the sell off and the Steifel call. I will give mngt. the benefit of the doubt, and believe it was the inventory rebalance on the retailers end, just this once. Took a long first time position on Fri. Doesn't seem to be a fad to me.
    again thx,
    kenn
    Dec 29 11:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Longbow Research's Downgrade Of SodaStream [View article]
    Home Tortilla Makers Inc., or Fondue pots of France Inc., I haven't heard of those companies. LMAO
    Desperation leads to inane comments I guess.
    Thx for the article.
    I'd like to know what you think of Steifel Nicholas downgrade and why. I consider them smarter than Goldman. Is it valuation or a slower growth curve with the new distribution center, and beginning of the year.
    Thx Ken
    Dec 28 08:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    I'm getting long SLW at 19.50, then buying more at 17.50, and blowing the last tranche at 15.50. I do not believe I will see 15.50, and 17.50 will be a gift.
    Just like the top, no one rings the bell at the bottom either. But I can read, and I can do TA. I say GLTA who sit watch and wait.
    I know this.......the world is going into a kumbaya moment, and silver will rise. The world will fall apart, and silver will rise farther. I will wait to buy gold, till it looks like the world will fall apart.
    kenn
    Dec 24 01:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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