Sir Sid

19 Comments

    • Does Ethanol Deserve the Blame for Rising Food Prices? [view article]
      All you need to do is exercise common sense. The answer to your question is YES!!! For further explanation, please click on this link: seekingalpha.com/artic...
       Apr 23 10:02 AM
    • Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market [view article]
      Heaven help us. Many morons believe that nuclear power is "safe". These are the same folks that believe in building more coal-fired energy plants. Let you in on a little something that isn't well known (apparently), coal contains intrinsic amounts of uranium. Some of the coal in the U.S. is almost ore grade. What that means is that it could be mined for its uranium content. So... in addition to sulfur dioxide, mercury and other particle air contaminants, the coal that they are burning is also radioactive. Hydrogen is what appears to be promising and it can be combined with solar and wind units in order to produce most of the energy needed to run our homes, businesses, and automobiles. It won't completely eliminate the need for oil since most plastics are made from it but, it will certainly reduce our consumption and need to purchase ANYTHING from the terrorists...er uh arabs. The oil that we would need to manufacture plastic would come from within our borders. Go CY!!!!!!!!! (Disclaimer...I have a long position in Tj Rodgers' Cypress Semi.). Apr 21 01:12 PM
    • Energy Affecting Food Prices [view article]
      It is amazing to me how people can rationalize THEFT! Oil and gas prices are what ails the economy and they must come down!!! The people who are hurt the most are our retirees on fixed incomes and the poor. Interest rates are right where they need to be. The U.S. does not need to go back to a tight money policy at least not for now. And.. we do not need to increase the supply of money.

      By the same token, price controls on gas and food would be a disaster. Further governmental regulation would screw things up worse than they already are unless.... they force the oil companies (and OPEC) to increase their output and keep further regulation and taxation out of the mix. Government MUST also reduce taxation on every product for sale and permanently remove tax from individual income and gasoline. I would also advocate some sort of a tax incentive for the development of solar and hydrogen power. These are the things that the government could do if they REALLY wanted to do something productive (for a "change")!!       Apr 20 07:15 AM
    • Why Do Oil Prices Keep Rising? [view article]
      Great analysis sir! I enjoyed reading your article. I am glad someone else sees some of the things that I see and can put them in proper perspective. Best wishes. Apr 18 08:39 PM
    • Lowering Prices at the Pump [view article]
      You folks have made some good points. Let me attempt to field some of them. First of all, I agree that it makes sense (from an economic standpoint) for the consumer at this point to lower their consumption level of fuel. The only problem is, is that one would have to stop eating in order to reduce their consumption of oil.

      One must get to work somehow and their transportation to and from more than likely uses gasoline. Without an income, the lights go off and one must rummage through a dumpster in order to put food on the table (or steal it). Furthermore, it should be noted that most of the packaging used for foods these days is a product of oil (plastic). In addition to this, home building would have to cease since most of the piping used for plumbing systems is made of plastic. Yep, PVC is also a product of oil.

      We could build cars that get better gas mileage, live closer to where we work or use alternate forms of transportation that currently exist. All of these ideas are good. Some are better than others. I am all for higher mpg standards for automobiles. One would think that they could change the carb system on cars and trucks in order to allow them to get 100 mpg. or better yet, run on water or waste. Its in the pipeline but for now they want to sell oil.

      Using buses, street cars and rail systems seems to make sense for city-dwellers but what about those who choose to live in rural areas? Should they be forced to give up their Suburbans (which by the way are a lot safer to drive considering the amount of people on prozac and/or cell-phones that infest our highways and bi-ways) and drive the little plastic deathtraps that eek out an extra mile per gallon?

      Bearfund, higher gasoline and oil prices are an indirect tax. So are additional fees which have been placed on just about everything. Take a look at your phone or cable bill sometime. Higher gasoline prices are unique. They are similar to the wages of a waiter (servers in restaurants are taxed on tax). Gasoline is a tax in itself and then an "excise" tax is placed on it.

      As far as your comments pertaining to alt-energy and other transportation is concerned, one thing to consider is that the energy that is used to run those other forms of transportation must come from somewhere. I agree, Hydropower, wind and solar power will become more popular in the near future. The prices will more than likely come down for that type of technology so that less time will transpire before the average joe, business owner, or corporation can break even on the investment of their individual systems.

      But, the parasites in power advocate the usage of coal and nuclear power in order to supply future energy needs. This is extremely short-sighted in my opinion due to the negative effects on the environment provided by both of these "solutions". Both of these alternatives could lead to the end of life as we know it.

      Why? Very few people know that in addition to sulfur dioxide and mercury (and other particle air contaminants), coal contains intrinsic amounts of uranium. Some of the coal that is mined in the U.S. could be considered ore grade as far as the amount of uranium that is inside it is concerned. What this means is that you could mine the coal for the uranium. It also means that what they are burning in these coal fired energy plants is radioactive! This not only affects the air that we breathe but also, the water that we drink since airborne pollutants come down in the form of precipitation and effect soil and groundwater.

      And as far as nuclear is concerned...that is just a bad idea any way you think about it!! They haven't come up with a solution to store the waste. The risks of meltdown or eco-terrorism (on the waste and the plants) outweigh the reward.

      What America needs is some decent heads working to find a solution. I am not convinced that those who are now and have been "elected" in the past, have the mental capability (or the scruples) to do the right thing... even if they don't, maybe the "invisible hand" will come to our "emotional rescue". Greed can be good!!! It is my opinion that high pump prices will probably bring about the increase in the efficiency of photo-voltaics and hydrogen powered fuel cells (p.e.m). They are long overdue in my opinion. Once production costs are lowered and they become mainstream, it is my bet that they will eventually supply most of the energy needs in the U.S. (but the solutions I offered earlier, are of a more short-term nature) Please feel free to add PV.'s and P.E.M. Fuel Cells to my list of "solutions" for the energy needs of the future.
       Apr 17 07:51 AM
    • How Holdbacks Brought Down Frontier Airlines [view article]
      Felix,
      I enjoyed reading your article! It was very illuminating. I also enjoyed reading 1st seekers take on the situation. Antonov, it is a pity that you didn't go on a bit more about the "OPEC boneheads". It is interesting how all of this relates to one another. It almost seems as though there is a concerted effort to wreck the economy.

      It begins with oil and gas prices. They have a negative effect on transportation (for obvious reasons) and then we see a spill over into the financials. All of this translates into higher prices for everything (as far as the individual citizen is concerned). My question is: "Why is all of this happening? Is it to give the impression that the current administrations policies are substandard so that a socialist candidate will be more attractive to the mindless masses at election time? Or could it be an "economic invasion" of the U.S. by some outside force? Hmmmmmmmm, makes me wonder.       Apr 17 07:05 AM
    • Exxon Mobil: The Root of all Evil? [view article]
      The movie "Brewster's Millions" comes to mind as we prepare to install (I mean...elect) a new President. The candidates appear to have similar thoughts pertaining to economic policies but at least they are different in physical appearance. The way I see it is that we have our "choice" between an old Socialist, a delusional female Marxist, or a dark skinned Socialist with a Fascist wife. I am with Mark, I vote for "None of the above".

      As far as social security is concerned, it was a plan (just like ethanol) that the fine folks in Washington dreamed up that never should have materialized. In my opinion, it has been one of the biggest "thefts" ever perpetrated on the populace. Why? because many have paid into this "retirement fund" and did not reach the age to collect. Where did the money go????? Probably into projects such as Hillary's Woodstock Museum. The funds DIDN'T go where they should have (to the heirs of those who died before they could begin collecting).

      Micheal, in reference to your post which pertained to "fairness" Do you think that it is fair to put a stranglehold on the U.S. if other nations are not adhering to this treaty? With gas and oil prices at their current levels, unions that have run amok, and a financial system that is in tatters at the moment, does it make sense to place another burden unto the productive? We all want clean air and water but, any time you get the government into the business of regulation and enforcement of business, it is bad news and means higher prices for the consumer due to their lack of efficiency. One important thing to remember, a government bureaucracy has only one mission, and that is to increase its bureau (not to look out for the best interests of the average joe bunda).       Apr 17 06:38 AM
    • Exxon Mobil: The Root of all Evil? [view article]
      Mr Peterson,

      The tax policies of European nations are the the main reason why prices are 8 bucks a gallon there. I am amazed that academics and politicians high gasoline prices appealing. Maybe it is because they don't pay to fill up their tanks? Apparently, they do not consider the impact of high gas and oil prices.

      Gasoline is like heroin. People will pay any price for it. They must if they want to remain employed. In the meantime, this "tax" on the people is driving up the price of everything (which is something they apparently do not understand) I shake my head in disbelief every time the price of gasoline goes higher and another tax is levied on the public.
      Your salary may support an increase in everything but for many, the net effect is devastating. Poor people are the ones that suffer the most since many live from paycheck to paycheck. If that doesn't deserve sympathy, I don't know what does.

      Please read my post titled "Lowering Prices At The Pump" on Seeking Alpha if you would like a little more info. on how gasoline prices affect the economy.       Apr 15 07:18 PM
    • Lowering Prices at the Pump [view article]
      Hi Folks,

      Thank you for taking the time to read my "rant". I enjoyed reading your responses!

      Wachry, to answer your question "..do you really think that "oil and gas prices are probably the biggest contributor to our economic problems at the moment?" Yes!!! Without a doubt. The crisis in the financials is directly related to the price of gasoline (and oil and the negative effects of the plan to use ethanol is now beginning to be seen).

      Many people have lost their jobs due to the over-taxation (and over-regulation) of businesses. Offshoring will increase if something doesn't give. This means that folks will lose their jobs (or get lower paying substitutes) and will not have money to pay their mortgages and still put food on the table.

      Most of the pundits you hear on television speak only of the effect; they don't mention the underlying reason for the increase in foreclosures and/or the problems in the mortgage and banking industry. Despite what they say on TV, many people did not buy above their means when their mortgages were initiated and many did not get suckered in by teaser rates. Once people began losing their jobs, foreclosures increased and the amount of properties available for sale increased. This tends to bring down property values since there was a rapid increase of supply without the increase in demand. Once they were upside down in their mortgage, it made more sense to abandon the property rather than continue paying on a mortgage that may or may not have had a variable rate. Can you see how all of this relates? It is a domino effect and they (the dominoes) continue to fall.

      As far as speculation is concerned, Naked truth makes a very good point. A lower margin rate would make it easier for individual investors and hedge funds to speculate without using their own capital. This may indeed be one of the reasons why prices have climbed to record levels in a relatively short period of time.

      As far as the environment goes, drilling for oil and mining for other resources is a necessary evil. We need oil and other resources from the Earth. From what I have read, the damage to the environment in ANWR would be limited. The threat of accidental spills (and those that could occur as a result of eco-terrorism) is always present. But the damage caused by the actual drilling would be minimal.

      Finally, I don't think that oil is scarce. Oil that is easily refined may be but, higher prices have spurred investment into new technologies that make it possible to extract oil from shale and refine the ugly sticky sour crude. Saudi and American investment into the expansion of an existing refinery (with the new technology) will enable us to not only refine the crude that is more difficult to make gasoline out of but, it will almost double the refining capacity. In my opinion, this is a positive step taken in order to shore up supply concerns. Focus on this and the prevention of supply disruptions should help to bring the prices down to a reasonable level. With lower oil and gas prices comes a better chance for the majority of citizens of this nation to prosper.

       Apr 15 07:20 AM
    • Exxon Mobil: The Root of all Evil? [view article]
      Avinash,

      You have made some very good points! It is easy for me to see that you have put a great deal of thought and have done a lot of research in this area. I agree, motivation must come from somewhere in order to develop new technology. There must be a catalyst. High pump prices will more than likely spur growth in the areas of alt-energy development, fuel efficiency and alternate transportation. Many of these new technologies are indeed, "ecologically friendly". Your question as to where the money will come from in order to advance these projects is one that you probably already know the answer. Private industry, V.C., and the U.S. Government.

      The point that I was trying to make is that I didn't think that we had the best minds (in the government) working to find a decent solution to the problems at hand.

      But one point that I would like to make that I didn't, is that many folks from foreign countries do not (or do not want to consider) the American culture (what there is of it). We like our own "stuff" and a lot of us like wide open spaces.
      You had mentioned: "Look at our Socialist comrades in Europe: they have the Eurorail and incredible subway systems in every city, their bus systems are well-used and efficiently function, and their cars are clearly not compensating for their "johnsons" - the things are half the size of an American sedan. I agree that the macroeconomic conditions in those countries are less than ideal elsewhere, but in the specific instance of transportation, taxing and spending is exactly what they have done, to enviable effect."

      Enviable for who? Certainly not for the individual. Individualism is what America is all about and people from foreign lands feel that they (American citizens) should give it up and ride the damn bus. They believe that the individual must work their lives around the schedule of the transportation company if they want to go anywhere. Aint gonna work (other than in one of our crime ridden, pollution filled cities). We love our cars and some of us like em big and loud! (But... it sure would be nice if they got 100 mpg). The car is sort of an extension of self in this country. Yeah, I know..that seems shallow but I think that it is true to a high degree. I am thinking that more than a few people overcompensate for a small johnson by buying a big Ferrari. Think about it the next time you see one driving down the road. Anyway, good luck to you and everyone else who has read and/or posted on this board.

       Apr 15 03:51 AM
    • Exxon Mobil: The Root of all Evil? [view article]
      Amen Clyde Milton! Apr 14 12:08 PM
    • Exxon Mobil: The Root of all Evil? [view article]
      Avinash, you need to review my post again. Read it again and you will find that we are in agreement for the most part (except for our views pertaining to Europe and of the infestation of the U.S. political process by one political party that sometimes calls themselves "progressives&quo... It has been my experience that those involved with that party do not have America's best interests at heart and rarely have the capability to think beyond their "johnsons".

      You mentioned that "a shift in funding from energy sources that do more damage to the world economy (in real costs) to energy sources that do more good will open the doors to new, cost-efficient forms of power." I totally agree and the funding that you mention can and will be used to pay the salaries of the bright minds to bring it about. How you made the connection to what I mentioned to Communism is beyond my capacity to think. I never mentioned that these "bright minds" would be working for free in order to further advanced fuel technologies.
      Using landfills as an energy source for the future is exactly what I am speaking of when I mentioned the photo membrane exchange system (P.E.M. fuel cell). Methane is converted into Hydrogen by a process called Electrolysis (which could be "fueled" by solar, wind and/or hydro technologies). It looks to be very promising.

      As far as Britain, France, Spain, Sweden and other nations (except for maybe Ireland) located in Europe are concerned, they are extremely socialist! Don't believe me? Look at their tax structure and health care programs. I sure wouldn't want to live in any of those countries. They're banana republics as far as I am concerned(and so is India...at least for now). The bottom line (and the members of congress should take note) is that a country cannot tax and spend its way to "economic freedom".

      It appears as though this country is headed down the wrong path (and will look more like Europe within a short period of time). The U.S., as more socialists come to power, is becoming more communistic as other countries become more capitalistic. China (and India) are two prime examples. China especially is kicking our butt right now and it will become more difficult for us to compete if prices of fuel remain at all time highs. It (Socialism aka. Marxism, aka. Totalitarianism) is another "root of evil" that will eventually lead to the fall of "Rome".

      The bottom line is, that a country can't tax and spend its way to economic freedom.       Apr 14 03:56 AM
    • Exxon Mobil: The Root of all Evil? [view article]
      To all of those who took the time to read my long winded post, I would like to express my sincere thanks! The negative economic conditions that currently exist in this country (and globally for that matter) appear to be positively correlated with high energy prices. The bottom line is that all will continue to suffer if they remain at current levels (or go higher...which is what I suspect they will do since our government isn't doing anything productive to solve the problem).

      User 177596 mentioned the fact that what I mentioned as a possible solution regarding the expropriation of Venezuelan assets in the U.S. has already been tried. Yes, I read that too. The problem there is that the case was tried in a British court. It is well known that the European nations embrace Socialism. The outcome of that legal exercise was predictable. The case should be re-tried in a court in the U.S. Why did the case go to a British court when it has to do with Venezuelan assets on U.S. soil?

      This is the danger with installing Clinton, Obama or any other communist (democrat) in the White House. They will make the U.S. beholden to the International court (in Europe). This would be a complete disaster! Furthermore, the installation of another socialist to office of President would result in more liberals on the Supreme Court. This could have negative effects on what is left of our Constitution since these people (who aren't for America or American citizens) will legislate from the bench.

      User 177596 also mentioned that "Oil producing nations will continue to demand an ever-increasing share of the profits and there’s little the oil companies or the government can to do stop them". This is a valid point. But, I believe that if our government really wanted to do something constructive, it could be done. The "answers"/so... that they have come up with are, in my opinion, ludicrous. Putting an additional tax on companies that drill and distill oil will not lower the prices at the pump! These additional "costs" of goods sold will be passed onto the consumer. Why, because they must maintain (or increase) margins. The execs at XOM and other oil companies must ensure stockholder value by growing the business and expanding revenues. Their bottoms are on the line. I understand this and I am all for capitalism. But how much money do you need? If the answer is more, than why can't companies such as XOM branch off into other products and services in order to generate revenue as opposed to increasing their profit on something that most folks have no choice but to buy (since there are very few substitues -- if any)?

      Speaking of substitutes; AverageAmerican, who posted in reply to my rant, sees what I see with the usage of ethanol as a way to shore up supply concerns. It is not a viable substitute. But, this is one of the solutions that was proposed and instituted (mandated). Another "solution" that has been proposed by those in positions of power is to further the usage of coal and/or nuclear power. Both of these solutions could lead to the end of life as we know it.

      Why? Very few people know that in addition to sulfur dioxide and mercury (and other particle air contaminants), coal contains intrinsic amounts of uranium. Some of the coal that is mined in the U.S. could be considered ore grade as far as the amount of uranium that is inside it is concerned. What this means is that you could mine the coal for the uranium. It also means that what they are burning in these coal fired energy plants is radioactive! And as far as nuclear is concerned...that is just a bad idea any way you think about it!!

      What America needs is some decent heads working to find a solution. I am not convinced that those who are now and have been "elected" in the past, have the mental capability (or the scruples) to do the right thing... even if they don't, maybe the "invisible hand" will come to our "emotional rescue". Greed can be good!!! It is my opinion that high pump prices will probably bring about the increase in the efficiency of photo-voltaics and hydrogen powered fuel cells (p.e.m). They are long overdue in my opinion. Once production costs are lowered and they become mainstream, it is my bet that they will eventually supply most of the energy needs in the U.S. (but the solutions I offered earlier, are of a more short-term nature) ...If you read my earlier post, please feel free to add PV.'s and P.E.M. Fuel Cells to my list of "solutions".

      Theres a great deal of things going on right now that are furthering the "burning of Rome". Leaders of the U.S. better get their heads out of their bums and find viable solutions to the "root of the evil". It should be noted though, that sometimes the best solution (as far as the government is concerned) is to do nothing!
      Best Wishes Everyone.       Apr 14 02:23 AM
    • Is Thornburg Mortgage Common Really Worth $3.88B? [view article]
      Oops, my foot slipped off of the keyboard prematurely. I published my article before I had "fixed" it. It tends to ramble but I think that you will get the general idea which is: Sometimes ya can't rationalize the irrational. There are a great deal of factors to consider in addition to the figures (like emotion, motive, momentum etc.) when one ascertains the "value" of a stock.

      And... as far as the warrants are concerned, I meant to say that I think that I saw somewhere that some of the shares that were acquired via warrant must be held sixty days. Please correct me if I am wrong.       Apr 12 08:27 AM
    • Is Thornburg Mortgage Common Really Worth $3.88B? [view article]
      Hello Hugh,

      In response to your comments, taking 5.5% was a quick and dirty estimate. To be more accurate, I could take estimated earnings for the year, add them up, multiply them by a PE of 10 or 15 and divide by the number of shares outstanding (AND THEN.. multiply this figure by 94.5%) This would give me another figure in order to ascertain "value". But by using either of these estimates I would not be taking into consideration the fact that all of this will eventually work its way out. These are estimates. They may or may not be indicative of actual results. A great deal of things could happen in the meantime. One, oil prices could come crashing down which would lift a great deal of weight off of the economy. This, coupled with measures taken by the Fed in order to thaw out the credit markets would make all of the estimates for TMA that I have looked at (and some of what you have mentioned) obsolete.

      Reletes made the comment that $22.50 before dilution is the equivalent of a about $1.25 after all is said and done. Interesting to note that it (TMA) traded at $28.40 before all of ther problems with sub-prime surfaced in the credit markets, interest rates were higher and markets were not so robust.

      My point is that it is anyones guess as to whether or not the market will recover quickly or it will take many moons. Will it recover? Yes. When? Probably sooner than those who are short would like longs to believe.

      Even with all of the estimates and the manipulation of figures there is one thing that nobody mentions. It is the simple fact that what is one mans trash is one mans treasure. Ultimately the true "value" of the stock is what the market will bear. Best wishes.
      At least some of the shares acquired by investors (via warrant) must be held sixty days.       Apr 12 08:15 AM
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