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spiro3

spiro3
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  • Lorillard Is A Bad Deal For Reynolds American Investors [View article]
    I totally disagree. RAI will only have the growth brands left. No more Salem-Winston sales falling 7% a year. They will be getting growth. In Cigarette business today if you can keep actual Stick sales flat and raise prices you come out way ahead. I expect in 2016 that MO will lose 3% sales and RAI will lose zero sales. I expect that in 2016 the 1st full year that RAI will earn 4.45 a share with 14% increases in profits after for 4-5 years. They also have the Santa Fe tobacco co with it's American Natural Spirit brand which can be taken international by BTI. Out in the future there is a line where cigarette sales quit falling and increase, though % wise fewer smoke, people numbers will be more
    Aug 8 01:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reynolds American - Lorillard Deal Is Threatened By The FDA [View article]
    This merger is going through. The FDA is going to do nothing about menthol since we have E-cigs with 100's of flavors. Reynolds says it's earnings for 2015 will be about 3.80 a share and once the full cost savings kicks in they expect to earn 4.45 in 2016 and 10-14% earnings growth for the next 4 years. The brands they would shed are the ones losing sales. The brands they are keeping are holding their own. No more will they be losing 4-5% of sales each year. Instead they will be about even each year. Then when annually as they raise prices they will be increasing the bottom line and actually be selling more sticks per year. By 2019 they should be earning 6.25 to 6.50 a share. A Dividend at 75% comes to 4.50 a share. Do the math and 6.25 x 16 PE and this is a $100 stock plus the large dividends you collected.
    Aug 7 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: What's The 2014 Dividend Raise? [View article]
    I'm upping my guess on the new dividend rate. The company has reduced it's share buy backs. The 2ndQ report sounded better from management. 24 cents sounds right to me. It's too bad that just a few years ago they had PM earning like 6.20 a share for 2014. Most investors will be happy with that raise and wish all of their stocks more than 2x the dividend in 6 years.
    Aug 3 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria: What's The 2014 Dividend Raise? [View article]
    Mo earnings have not been so great but things have picked up in recent years. Some say that in 10 years SAB-Miller will be 50% of MO's earnings. $2.08 sounds great
    Aug 3 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris' Profit Decline Signals Good News For Electronic Cigarette Market [View article]
    If China ever opens to PM and others PM China will sell 1.5 more cigs than MO USA. About 4 billion profit in 5 years. That alone would add 2.70 per share earnings and it would be perhaps more since you are adding new business to a company that would need few employees per cig
    Jul 20 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard Is A Bad Deal For Reynolds American Investors [View article]
    No one has commented on the Jury settlement of 23.6 billion, but I will. Remember they could never pay that.
    Jul 20 03:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard Is A Bad Deal For Reynolds American Investors [View article]
    Anyway I can't believe a CPA would say to sell RAI outright. Sure you can do it if it was in a tax deferred account. But in a taxable account it would take my tax at 15% plus 6% state tax, it would also make all my dividends get taxed at 25% as I'm in the zero% dividend and cap gain bracket. The management of RAI has never been wrong. They were right when they bought back Nabisco, took the liability risk and then sold it to Philip Morris MO and got 2.3 billion cash for free. They merged with American and it worked, they bought the Smokeless and it added to earnings and they grew earnings while unit sales fell. Also when this CPA wrote the article he did not even state the facts correctly.
    Jul 20 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard Is A Bad Deal For Reynolds American Investors [View article]
    The largest risk is not from FDA which is not going to rule against menthol. The greatest risk is interest rates. A 4% 10 year bond would knock RAI to a 5.25-5.5% yield, higher rates would be even more. This is an interest rate sensitive stock just like a utility.
    Jul 20 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard Is A Bad Deal For Reynolds American Investors [View article]
    RAI will now be doing the usual price increases but from now on it will be on growing or very slowly falling sales. Losing 3.6% a year in sales to growing .25% a year has to add to the bottom line. Yes they will be borrowing 9 billion, but by next July when they are merged they will have almost 700 million more in cash as they make payments on the debt and stop the share buybacks. This will have the same effect as borrowing just 8.3 billion. See, the deal looks even better.
    Jul 20 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard Is A Bad Deal For Reynolds American Investors [View article]
    Yes the merger is risky. But with 900 million more in operating income and they are keeping the growth brands, plus maybe 425 million is cost savings, yes they say 800 million but some of that is going to Imperial. LO was not making any money on the E-cigs and Reynolds will with the VUSE. The Vuse will also be sold buy BTI overseas, they never said that but it's a sure thing.
    Jul 20 03:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Solid 2nd Quarter Results Show Strong Growth [View article]
    All that I can say is that I wish at my work I got 1/3rd the raise PM has given and it's former MO. As long as my dividend income grows each year I'm happy. Only missed it 3 years as financials cut back , but since then it's been huge as for some reason , just blind luck, I got better raises on everything else and the financials resumed theirs.
    Jul 20 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Solid 2nd Quarter Results Show Strong Growth [View article]
    We will all find out on September 10 2014 if PM raises the dividend and cuts the buyback. I say they cut back the dividend raise to just 20 cents to 3.96 at the best and 3.90 at worst
    Jul 20 03:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Your Philip Morris Dividend To Grow 8-10% This September [View article]
    OK no post since June 30th. Well the earnings are out. PM will increase the dividend and if MO raises theirs 16 cents PM will raise theirs 20 cents. I'll take it and should things change in 2015-2018 they will make it up
    Jul 20 03:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Group: Have We Reached 'Peak Tobacco'? [View article]
    The merger of RAI-Lorillard as they sell off the parts that are in big decline and keep the part that is selling more cigs. Is a long term buy. Altria is a long term buy. A deal with Diageo would be in stock, not cash which is better. At best a merger of SAB Miller is only worth 3 to 4 a share
    Jul 18 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reynolds American Acquires Lorillard Conference Call (Transcript) [View article]
    Reynolds has made this work. I still think if they would have just stayed RJR and never merged with American they would be better off. They had just 82 million shares out back then and had 2 billion cash and almost no debt. With the bid drop in the market in 2001-2002 they could have scooped up 12 million shares and 3 million a year over the next 12 years. We would be looking at a company with just 34 million share. With 1 billion in earnings at $30 a share earnings. Hey split the stock 2x and you still got 7.50 earnings, split again and it's 3.75 a share. I would have 7200 shares paying a 3 dividend or 21,600 a year. But we will never know
    Jul 16 06:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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