31October

Deja Vu 2008: Crude Oil Market Entirely Detached from Fundamentals

Why would you brag about being the most onanistic academic on earth?

It is clear that those who CAN'T spend way too much time blogging about why they are too good TO.

Here is a mathematical formula:
(Rap star)^ (to the power if Rush Limbaugh) = Puffedup MacDaddy F-Banks.

Please cease embarrassing yourself. I am seeking knowledge, not narcissim.


On Oct 19 10:58 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:
> Too complicated for me, Dian, and I'm the leading academic energy economist in the world. I just hope that somebody who thinks otherwise opens their mouth when I give my next big lecture.

Cracker Barrel: An Investment Worth Exploring

Utilities will go up. States that implemented property tax freezes will raise sales taxes. My former city has a freaking rainwater tax, in addition to a hospitality tax on all food. Diesel costs could drive materials costs up. Employment & dining out income are dropping. I expect gross margin and revenue to decline.

On the plus side, my former company knew they had to get out of the union state to remain in the USA. During relocation, management wanted to meet at CRBL every time! The next wave of transplants woud say, "We were told by the others to eat at this Cracker Barrel place?"

Last week, 108 people from our NY/NJ company ate at P.F. Chang's. Nobody called Newark and said, "Hey, you gotta get down here and try this food!"

I hate the industry, but if you have to invest in restaurants, this one is as good as they come.

ConocoPhillips Plans Two Year Makeover

Excellent piece by Mr. Armistead. I stand by what I said on the referenced article. COP has a bad RoE, especially considering debt. The natural gas play is providing COP with un-storable inventory. I would look elsewhere until demand for crude & especially n.gas is on a climb, and inventory is in a long-term decline.

How to Profit From Greenhouse Gas Emission Restrictions and Incentives

Cap & trade will obviously cause an increase in utility bills. When the feds begin subsidizing people's big, fat utility bills, maybe they will outsource the work. That would be where to profit from CO2 emission restrictions.
Or you could just invest in Al Gore's GIM company, like Nobel committee members.

Bill Gross: Does California - and the U.S. - Have the Discipline to Turn Things Around?

On Oct 05 11:06 AM Living4Dividends wrote:
<SNIP>
......Unfortunately, the residents of the state have to suffer the consequences.

Once D.C. bails out the California legislature, [again under threat of worldwide economic disaster if we don't] we will all be suffering right along with them.
"I cannot ease your pain, but I can feel it with you."

And Micheal Clark is correct that the average American is more disciplined that Congress. But the American balance on credit cards + car loans + other fixed payment debts totaled $16,600 in 2008. The average American has nine credit cards. Nine? 9? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Take 535+1 of the most corrupt, pandering people from that average population and give them a printing press. That's our government.

Question:
Does California - and the U.S. - Have the Discipline to Turn Things Around?

Answer:
That was a rhetorical question, right?

Shining a Light on Solar Opportunities

Suddenly cutting half the American defense budget is a terrific idea. My family in Afghanistan may not agree, since they would be overrun and killed...

But as long as we use those dollars to support Al Gore's carbon-trading company, it's all good, right?

I'm sure it's come down since then, but the movable panels described were quoted at $36,000 for my house. Ain't gonna happen.

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger?

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger? Anything is.
But let's look at the numbers:

In case of reduced demand, while inventories are rising, they have a poor quick ratio. Also...
EPS -16.55
ROE -32.30%
P/Cash on hand 76
P/FCF - bleeding out
EPS past 5Y -5.07% despite Sales past 5Y 18.56%
Oper. Margin -8.95%
63% loss of cash flow from OPERATIONS! (6mos09/06mos08)
Insider Ownership only 0.29%, and nobody is buying.
Higher cost per barrel of extractable oil than BP, TOT, XOM.

I do not own XOM at current valuations, but I think the author might want to compare these ratios and trends. Look at PTR's numbers and pray for a downturn to buy. I still own BP, no regrets. I failed to sell CVX, but even that drag on my portfolio is a safer investment than COP.

A low p/s and EV/rev is not enough to make me believe that COP will completely reverse their history of poor productivity.

The Fed's Ponzi Scheme Has Run Out

Laying around unemployed, like 7 million Americans.


On Oct 01 09:33 AM sethmcs wrote:
> Gloom and doom can't last forever. It's morning in America. Where
> is Ronald Reagan?

Oil Going Off the Boil

Road Runner is correct, but there is also a second batch of price supporters: The exploration & driller cos, from domestic to the Saudis, need ~$70/barrel to make further extraction efforts worth it. With various corners of production needing a long-term floor to keep stable financing, and the US administration begging banks to provide financing, [[and the producers paying Congress]], then there is a triumvirate of price supporters.

(Whether it goes to the moon is debatable. But a diminishing resource needed by a population that is becoming more mobile even as it grows? Hmmm... Maybe the moon is not so lofty a goal. Next time it's <50, I'm in.)

Goldman to Invest in Chinese Car Maker

No, you don't point them anything.

Dozens of posters have replied to your incoherent spams. None have received a reply, because you were too busy uploading more mass comments.

I don't follow you, so it is a testimony to your proliferate flatulence that you are on most the pages anyway.

I post this needless comment only as a warning to anybody who attempts to translate your further musings.

P.s.: AA meets in every city in America. Take the time to invest in yourself.


On Sep 23 09:41 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> It's an interesting trade. When readers ask me about my next ten
> bagger, I point them to ...

What's Down with Commercial Real Estate?

Mad Hedghog Spammer,
How many times do you need to post the same comment before you find... actually, what is it that 2,990 repeated comments gives you?


On Sep 24 08:24 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> rdc The vultures are circling the embattled commercial real estateindustry....

A Few Truths About Oil

If you feel like subsidizing other people's purchases, I would love an electric car - red, with lots of rear leg room and a 200-mile range. Thanks for supporting my purchase.

Oh, wait, a Cayenne qualified for the clunkers program. Maybe you already bought me a new car. Well, thanks for that, plus the electric that you'd like to subsidize next.

The government has already spent your money on subsidies, tax credits, loopholes for legislators, and banker bailouts. If there were anything left, [there isn't] what would make it okay for you to be forced to buy me a car?

The opposite is the answer: Elimination of all subsidies, with a variable base tax under crude to create a stable pump price, reduce our desire to invade anybody, and prop up a hybrid/electric market. Slash all other taxes, and -bam- gas is still cheap relative to output & income.


On Sep 22 09:32 AM a. palmer jr. wrote:
> snip>
The solution, as I see it, is to go to electric vehicles. I don't mean hybrids because they still burn gas although for now it's stop-gap, I suppose. I think that as long as electric cars are so expensive that they should be government subsidized, at least for now. It would pay off in the long run.

Leading Indicators Offer More Confirmation of Recession's End

Indicators such as housing are unreliable by historic standards. The US taxpayer is indirectly backing about 80% of the bad loans in the country. With commercial real estate destined to decline, there will be more bad loans for workers to support. New housing starts are driven by subsidies, soon to be raised again. These positive numbers are fake, and would be unsustainable if they were real.

Worse, the taxpayers to back other people's bad loans are declining in number. Actual employment numbers are going down, not up. The claims appear to go down as disenfranchised workers leave. Not a single state that reported reduced unemployment numbers last month actually added a job.

[People left with jobs could tend to unionize (with government encouragement), thus driving even more jobs slowly eastward.]

Anybody who says we have come out of a recession should visit any of the hundreds of counties in the USA with 10+% official unemployment. These are the official, fudged, numbers; not even true unemployment.

Here are some other items that indicate economic conditions:

data.bls.gov/map/servl...

nelp.3cdn.net/fc4bd4e4...

blog.taragana.com/n/br.../

www.nytimes.com/intera...

Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

Mad Hedgehog Spammer does not read replies.

He is a litterbug, tossing empty bottles of wisdom out the window of a slowly drifting Buick into the information highway. His illegitimate son, Cetin, sometimes bails him out for DUI (Disseminating Useless Incoherency).


On Sep 18 01:33 PM ldker wrote:

> I have seen the guy above, the MAD SPAMMER - posting the same comment
> on each solar article appearing on Alpha for the past month. Mad,
> when you do this your credibility goes out the window as it appears
> to be spam to drum up business for your rinky dink operation. If
> you have nothing new to add, please stop it.

Dollar Stabilizes, Rally Slows

The "stronger" dollar is a result of lowered velocity of money and temporary deflation. 42 states lost jobs in August 2009, up from 29 in July. Employers have eliminated 7 million jobs since December 2007. States with drops in unemployment show up that way because the jobless gave up. None of those states actually added jobs.

If velocity picks up, then how far south can the dollar go? Look very far south, maybe Argentina, to find out. Americans do not have the savings mentality of the Japanese, so I suspect that the Fed/Treasury/Congress will eventually get what they want and devalue the dollar by at least 40% to avoid true debt repayment. The paragraph about Treasury bonds being a safe haven play is interesting: I pity the fool who moves into T-bills for safety. Non dollar based energy / minerals stocks will be the safe bet.

The dollar stabilization is just like the time I fell off a cliff. I smacked a ledge on the way down. There was a brief moment when I was not falling.

25 years later, I am not likely to go repelling again. And the lenders whom we shafted with dollar devaluation will not be likely to buy our treasury debt again.