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31October

31October
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  • Debt And Taxes [View article]
    People are so easy to trick that the dollar will never collapse; it will just be ever-higher inflation. I enjoy reading the comments by people who brag that their portfolio has gone up 30% after the money supply was tripled. They'll be the same ones to sell near the bottom in the next downturn... Then the Fed will triple the money supply again, and people will think they are wealthy again.
    The ones I feel sorry for are retirees who trust their financial advisers to put them into fixed-income investments, so they end up paying taxes on income that is less than inflation.
    Aug 22 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd: Complete Fleet Analysis As Of August 2014 And Commentary [View article]
    Evidence suggests that is where he already is.
    Aug 22 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa: High Dividend Growth Stock To Consider [View article]
    Why Visa over Discover? Discover has dividend growth, higher yield, higher ROE, and lower payout. In a way, it has a wider moat, since Visa is a transaction processor, whereas DFS does that and owns the bank that issued it. With thousands of banks issuing Visa, there is a high chance of inconsistency or fees that infuriate customers. The only problem I have is that Discover is not widely accepted in Europe.
    Aug 22 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd: Complete Fleet Analysis As Of August 2014 And Commentary [View article]
    Yep: http://bit.ly/1ohTMUJ
    As creepyfascist as it sounds, I wish Seeking Alpha would block anything coming from his IP address, since he just keeps creating a new identity whenever he gets blocked.
    Aug 22 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Best Prospects Among The Drillers And A 'Buy' [View article]
    Their results are about what would be expected from the leverage. 2009-2013 revenue & operating income grew at similar rates, but net earnings on SDRL were much higher, cash flow from operations was lower, and net cash flow was much lower than ATW. SDRL's debt & payout are scary, but the ROE is so leveraged, and they have a lot of contracts, that they should survive & thrive.
    Aug 21 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Spins Subsidies Both Ways [View article]
    Awesome and very true stories. Most of the people I took to the ER were prisoners looking for a taxpayer-funded field trip, often since they couldn't get their favorite drugs from the jail.
    Aug 21 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Spins Subsidies Both Ways [View article]
    India is best at medical tourism. They have production lines of procedures.
    Aug 20 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Best Prospects Among The Drillers And A 'Buy' [View article]
    I like ATW, but...
    According to http://bit.ly/1lhTeUh, plug in SDRL into the "compare to" field on the right, and you get:
    "Using 12/28/2005 as start date to match available data range for ATW and SDRL...
    Total [dividends reinvested] return: ATW 147.02% SDRL 645.93%"

    According to Morningstar, http://bit.ly/1lhTdjf, ATW has its years, but SDRL is more volatile, but in a good way, with a higher return.
    I say, why not own both?
    Aug 20 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Spins Subsidies Both Ways [View article]
    Re "Europeans... have better healthcare overall and pay much less for it"
    I've taken people to the hospital in the USA, Belgium, and France. My buddy went in Greece, and another took his wife in Poland... We all had the same stories.
    Ignoring the hidden taxes and subsidies (try working your way up the economic ladder, when 71% of income is guzzled by VAT & fees [which are not normally included in "taxation" statistics as they should be), the conditions were almost as good as your local VA, but not quite as good as your local DMV.
    Europeans may negotiate for much lower prescription cost, but the people pay elsewhere, then pay elsewhere again. It's not a better system; it's a different system.
    Aug 20 01:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Spins Subsidies Both Ways [View article]
    Credit does not work long-term, because interest eats the buying power, and sometimes there is a bubble that pops. I was being sarcastic, since I'd already done the papers on this long ago-- The reason for the increased standard of living was that per capita productivity and workforce participation grew for decades, (along with a good current account and low money reserves.) It plateaued for the first time in American history just recently. Inflation-adjusted wages stagnated for the first time within the last ~5-6 years as well.
    I got a quick A for Keynes-ing, but Hayek-ing lasts forever.
    Aug 19 09:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Spins Subsidies Both Ways [View article]
    If wages were suppressed and people have not seen an increase in wages in 40 years, then how did the average size of a home rise so much (and get HVAC), how did the price of a car octuple, how did everybody get cell phones, cable TV, an abundance of food, and new clothes? Because my parents and grandparents' generations didn't have that. I guess a free government program made that happen.
    Aug 19 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco PLC Offers A Sobering Look At The Dynamics Affecting Its Core Markets [View article]
    HA, I am never certain any more! I've read some from SDRL, NE, RIG-- They all predict an increase in day rates in 2016. As long as they keep strong quick & current ratios, they should survive the 2015 glut.
    If the surge of new builds arrives (the known) as there is a global drop in demand (the unknown) and some drillers go bankrupt, ESV is likely to be the survivor who acquires other new rigs for pennies.
    I have no doubt that the market price will plummet (my own way of calculating intrinsic value says it is worth $6.06-31.45), but their 5-year revenue, operating income, net income, and cash flow are positive, plus most of the reduction in cash flow is from taxes paid and capital investments.
    If there was clear chance of bankruptcy (anything is possible), I would dump, but see no chance of that happening.
    Aug 19 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: A Wide-Moat Stock To Hold Forever [View article]
    Not emotion, logic. The quality of the product is falling, and a company must have a quality product that consumers will buy and buy again. Disney keeps proving that they do not care about product (buy a plastic toy, after watching a non-Lassiter-produced sequel, if you doubt this), but whether "acquisitions are considered immediately accretive," and "expanding the franchise."
    I know about the successful movies, since I got the shares from the Pixar acquisition (my by far largest holding back then, so thanks, Disney!), and giving Lassiter reign over animated productions has been successful. But their comments after the Lucas and Marvel purchases have been almost exclusively focused on marketing synergy and immediate ROI, rather than ensuring quality products.
    I have made big financial mistakes that will haunt me for the rest of my life, but this wasn't one. I bought rental houses that are being depreciated against other income, and will pay for themselves within the next few years. We expanded my wife's business; it will pay for itself in one year.
    Aug 19 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco PLC Offers A Sobering Look At The Dynamics Affecting Its Core Markets [View article]
    If rates are likely to climb in 2016 (a prediction SDRL and RIG share) and I collect a dividend that reinvests at a higher rate all the way down to the trough, and ESV is in no danger of bankruptcy, and global demand for oil & gas continues to climb, and shale becomes more expensive (driving exploration deeper offshore), then I see no reason to sell this stock.
    This is a roller coaster stock: It's fine to scream all the way down (and I will), but it would also be prudent to remain seated and hold on as you scream about the drop.
    Aug 18 03:41 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: A Wide-Moat Stock To Hold Forever [View article]
    I sold it all after a trip to Disney with the kids. Although the parks are very well-run, the toys were all junk that immediately disintegrated. We do not have TV at home, so the kids took full advantage of every moment of Disney TV. It was almost all vomit. Even the 8-year-old wanted it off eventually. I didn't like any of the adult stations, either. I spent my time in the weight room with Disney TVs everywhere; I couldn't watch any of their stations.
    Disney has a long history of creating something fantastic, then running into the ground with horrific sequels that drive loyal kids away-- Little Mermaid is one example. Sorry to be the contrarian, but customers occasionally say, "Wait, the product is crap. I've spent too much on this, and I'm done."
    The comments by some executives about "expanding the franchise" indicate no interest in quality of output, just market saturation.
    Aug 18 03:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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