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31October

31October
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  • Seadrill's (SDRL) CEO Per Wullf on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Market gyrations have nothing to do with crude supply and demand. If you want to day-trade as I used to do, that is fine. But day-trading is not investing.
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco Has Become A Great Value Play [View article]
    Your retirement account has NOTHING to do with market price or PE at a given moment and EVERYTHING to do with dividends and free cash flows over time.
    ESV's cash from operations and free cash flow took a nasty hit (to be formally announced in October), but the trend is UPward. Short term assets are increasing. Quick ratio 2.57. Current ratio 2.84. They are not going bankrupt.
    Companies like ESV and SLB will be the survivors of the oil shakeout, not the first dominoes to go down.
    Aug 28, 2015. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's (SDRL) CEO Per Wullf on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    "You got to understand the most difficult time ended as of today." There are more factors moving against an increase in the price of oil than pushing it downward. If oil is not more expensive, consistently enough to get more lucrative contracts locked in, SDRL will have problems by 2017.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL Now Yielding 23% - What's Wrong With The Closed-End Funds? [View article]
    BDCs do well in times of economic growth, because the companies make bridge loans to startups. I doubt that we are about to enter a long period of domestic economic expansion, so I'm waiting before dipping back into BDCL.
    Aug 27, 2015. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MLPL, A Great Play For An Oil Rebound [View article]
    Haha, I just got a different warning for this: http://seekingalpha.co...
    It reminds me of the time an entire police department surrounded me for being with a guy whose car had New York (gasp!) plates and warned me that they were watching our every single move and that they were going to catch those New York tags doing something.
    Aug 27, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach [View article]
    Packer, I think that he is correct to be conservative. As the net asset value of the underlying index components drop, so will the distributions. Therefore, MORL will probably see a decline in yield, and since we cannot predict when it will rise again, we should go with the worst-case scenario (especially for a product than can be liquidated for two different reasons.) Mortgage note trading REITs are a lot more sensitive to bad news than normal stocks.
    Aug 27, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach [View article]
    Mr. Gilbert, yes, it will always drop, because some components of the ISE High Income Index are CEFs with declining net asset values. The easiest way to see it is to go to http://bit.ly/1JoafED and change the time period on the bottom right of the chart to "Since Inception" and plug in the components of YYY/CEFL. (You'll have to re-click "Since Inception" every time you change the ticker symbol.)
    The NAV (orange) line of many components is in an eternal downward slant. The decline in NAV is because components have a high minimum distribution, so they pay out more than funds available for distribution, which is why part of the "dividend" is actually return of capital.
    The NAV problem is compounded by CEFL's 2X leverage: The index's decline in NAV is multiplied to match the index weighting. Although CEFL's yield is compounded relative to the index, CEFL's yield is based on the NAV of the index; as NAV declines, do does yield, therefore yield will never increase quite as quickly as the NAV drops. Here is a chart comparing the stock market total returns with YYY and the levered CEFL http://bit.ly/1Joafoh.
    I have CEFL that I bought before I realized that it was different from the other ETNs, so I ran an extrapolation to see if I should just cut my losses. I'm not at the spreadsheet, but I recall that the compounded yield was so high that I would eventually break even and make a nice profit. (The timing of the previous chart makes it look worse than the actual returns should be over the long term.) But the total return will still be less than MORL, MLPL, BDCL, HDLV. CEFL will be more like an annuity; just ignore the red on the screen and keep the distributions.
    (Somebody will probably bring up MORL's recent return of capital. MORL is the only other ETN to ever pay out from ROC, but it is minimal and rare, and unlike CEFL, all of its components have net asset greater than at inception.)
    Aug 27, 2015. 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MLPL, A Great Play For An Oil Rebound [View article]
    I assume that he must be a top-secret undercover Treasury agent or SEC asset used to control REIT markets for nefarious purposes, so the men in black stepped in to shut me down before his cover was blown.
    Aug 26, 2015. 09:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach [View article]
    Johan, yes. CEFL has a problem that means its price will always drop, so don't get tempted by CEFL (or any ETNs that were introduced recently at the height of the market.)
    UBS leveraged products have a $5 (or 30% drop in the index) call feature, so there is that danger... But if you extrapolate the numbers on how far from all-time highs to all-time lows they move, some ETNs such as HDLV or MLPL will be good buys in a few months. I wouldn't buy anything now- wait for China's implosion and automated selling by funds to make the market half-price.
    Aug 26, 2015. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MLPL, A Great Play For An Oil Rebound [View article]
    JB, I have been reported and deleted as abusive many times for questioning factual errors, asking relevant & supporting questions, and recently for asking Brad Thomas if he lived in the southeast (because he uses a phrase used only in one area.)
    Since I went on SA's permanent double-secret probation list, I quit trying to be professional and just be myself. Nobody reads my theses on how earnings can be affected by the strength of the renminbi anyway. When computerized trading autonomously flushes sells the market value down the loo, I might brag just to get that reported as well.
    Aug 26, 2015. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN: A Pragmatic Approach [View article]
    September & October are the seasonally lowest-return months, and December (although normally up) can go either way. If the trend is down, December normally dips further from tax-loss selling.
    I am waiting to buy. There factors that tell me that there will be a nasty fall this fall. MORL bought low enough (I am bidding for $9.83) would give a decent yield when the market comes back up.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MLPL, A Great Play For An Oil Rebound [View article]
    Seeking Alpha regularly warns me about my comments:
    "Comments on Seeking Alpha reach an audience of millions of unique users a month.
    Your professional reputation is affected by what you post in comments. Are you sure you want to post that?"
    Of course I want to post it- I have no professional reputation.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MLPL, A Great Play For An Oil Rebound [View article]
    My thinly-traded small caps did not go down much, but my globally-traded mega-caps that would be in a lot of funds were hammered worse than I would have ever imagined. The constipated global markets took a big collective dump, and it was the securities in funds, even blue-chip cash cows, that were flushed. Here is a pic of the bizarre trades that happened http://bit.ly/1K1zlg8-- That is computerized trading. I've entered a dozen ridiculous low bids; maybe I will get lucky and China will get another upset stomach.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: MLPL, A Great Play For An Oil Rebound [View article]
    I think it had more to do with automated trading algorithms frantically buying & dumping.
    There are more mutual funds than stocks, so fund companies will sell in advance to get cash for redemption, plus ETFs, options, and derivatives (such as leveraged funds like FAS & FAZ) will trade quickly to match their goal. I see the funds & funds of funds & leveraged notes causing a long vicious spiral down this fall, and am bidding on MLPL at $24 and $20.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10%-Yielding HDLV May Be A Good Choice If Interest Rates Remain Low [View article]
    My thinly-traded small caps were not hit nearly as badly as my mega caps. My theory is that large cap stocks are held in hundreds of different mutual funds that were receiving redemptions, plus large-caps are traded globally... So the "safe" megacorps were being flushed in a global dump, but the tiny domestic startups were not.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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