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31October

31October
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  • Half-Million Dollar Income Project: July Update [View article]
    If you really want income, leverage the entire portfolio on full margin: http://tinyurl.com/pld...
    Jul 30, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Frankenstein Fund - The End Of The Beginning [View instapost]
    Iraq oil is still ramping up, Iran has yet to begin openly selling, and frackers can restart shuttered wells quickly; meanwhile ultra-deepwater drillers keep pumping to cover debt payments. Every time the price rises past a breakeven point, a new shale drill will be reactivated. Every time crude price rises enough to reopen a well, the increased supply creates another cap on price.... There are more caps on price than floors, so a quick rise in crude price is unlikely.
    Jul 30, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL Now Yielding 23% - What's Wrong With The Closed-End Funds? [View article]
    Nick, there is nothing negative; numbers have no emotions. I make up formulas, such as (GDP per capita, less national debt per capita) * (worker participation rate), and they tell me whether an economy is sustainable and whether the market should set new records every month.
    On this map, every country has faced an economic crisis except the USA http://tinyurl.com/oac..., and we have not had a collapse because the US dollar is the currency for the petrodollar oil trade, which has been precarious since 1991, when debt was a fraction of what it is now.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could A Classic DGI Strategy Go The Way Of Buggy Whips? Welcome To The New Age: The Frankenstein Fund - Income Generation On Steroids [View instapost]
    I am pleased with the distributions I just got and how low the reinvested price was. They need to drop for a few more months. (I don't do margin, so the lower the better.) I cannot imagine double the distribution.
    Jul 29, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With The mREITs? - MORL Now Yields 29.4% [View article]
    The Fed cannot raise rates without bankrupting the federal government itself. Interest on the debt (which the government is paying historic low rates on) is expected to almost triple to 3% of entire country's GDP, which would exceed defense spending and cause Congressional spending to hit the debt ceiling again and again.
    Neither the government nor the banks want to fight inflation- they want lots and lots of inflation so that they can pay off debt with devalued dollars. Banks profit by merely keeping profits in non-US currencies (war and debt are easy bets). The Fed, the CBO, and the OMB all agree that they cannot pay their bills with real money; it must be devalued with inflation.
    When there is a raise, it will be tiny, just so Yellen can save face.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL Now Yielding 23% - What's Wrong With The Closed-End Funds? [View article]
    Prudent Investor has a point in that some of the underlying CEFs that comprise CEFL have declining net asset value, because the distributions are ROC. Because of the way the ETN is structured, declining NAV reduces CEFL's distribution, plus the declining share price is multiplied X2.
    He cannot match the yield, but he can avoid the price decay.
    Jul 28, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Millionaires' REITs That Pay Monthly Portfolio [View article]
    Bob, I lost a ton trusting "professional" analysts and later went to school for finance myself, where I learned that MBA students are not necessarily good thinkers. They are salesmen, and if you have ever bought a used car, you know that the typical salesman doesn't know anything about what is under the hood or how it works.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:26 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    How can corn be at an all-time high, when it is half the cost it was a few years ago? http://bit.ly/1MvYpvB
    Adjusted for inflation, corn is cheaper than it was in 1975.
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    When I read "Raoul Pal" on paper, I see "Ru Paul" in my head, and when I see Ru Paul analyzing durable goods orders, I wonder if I am sane enough to be trusted with my limited funds.
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Why Now Is The Time To Consider MORL [View article]
    I get what that guy is saying. When I was an econ student, I threw the professors off by asking why they didn't account for human behavior (that question is now called praxeology), but they had always lived in academia and couldn't think outside of the model.
    The Fed cannot raise rates. Although nominal GDP per capita is rising, the income growth *rate* is declining http://bit.ly/1MvXpYj, and are actually going down after inflation http://cnb.cx/1MvXpYl, GDP is rising more slowly than debt http://onforb.es/1MvXonk and http://herit.ag/1MvXpYm, so to raise rates would add to the national debt http://1.usa.gov/1MvXpYo. The IMF has been pressuring the ECB to lower rates, and China has lowered both rates and reserve requirements to flood the markets with renmimbi. He is right that the dollar will rise in value relative to the euro, which is another reason rates cannot be significantly raised.
    Yellen might announce a rate increase for three reasons: 1- she said they would, 2- this is their last chance to do so before an election year, and 3- because their hands are played out, they need something to manipulate the markets if a crash comes (and that writer thinks one is coming.) His observation about Deutsche Bank is like Lehman all over again.
    Just because I am certain about rates not going up doesn't mean that I am right.
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    My 31-year-old 1984 Thunderbird with rudimentary throttle-body fuel injection has had no trouble. Problems occur with cars, lawn equipment, and boats with carburetors, because alcohol makes the membrane brittle. So if you park your mower or boat for the season, it can indeed be ruined.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Day In The Life [View article]
    I didn't think anybody anywhere could EVER beat my cheapness! I lost a fiancée due to my extreme cheapness (aka frugality and planning), took off and travelled the USA & Europe, essentially living as if homeless for a couple years.
    But you win the frugality award. Even the subway stations I slept in had water. I lived hard, but I couldn't live without water.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    Iraq oil is still ramping up, Iran has yet to begin openly selling, and frackers can restart wells quickly. Every time the price rises past a breakeven point, a new supply will be reactivated. There are more caps on price than floors, so I don't see a quick rise being possible.
    Jul 27, 2015. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gastar Exploration: Addressing Challenges [View article]
    The hardest part for me right now is waiting to buy more GST preferred, because I think the market will panic for a lot longer than is rational. They have cash flow, positive margins from operations, and a quick ratio of 1 (which they are trying to keep up). They are in no immediate danger of bankruptcy.
    Jul 27, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    Skaterdude already caught that.
    Jul 27, 2015. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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