Seeking Alpha

31October

31October
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 31October's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Latest Rig Market Developments Bad News For North Sea Drillers [View article]
    I think you need to look past the lower velocity of money that comes with reduced worker participation rates (M*V=*Q) and look at the GDP/debt ratios of Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Greece before their problems vs. the US.
    Then look at what oil trading similarities Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qaddafi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (whom Hugo Chavez violated sanctions to deal with [also Qaddafi]), and which Bashar al-Assad also threatened to do. Ponder why they would be enemies of the USA, but Saudis are Bush/Obama's sweet lovers. Then ask what the real reasons for war or agitations in those nations are...
    Just because the dollar is up *temporarily relative to other countries that are attempting to devalue their currency* (to stimulate exports and pay off entitlements with devalued money) does not mean it is up. There are myriad purchasing power calculators on the web.
    Or perhaps I am wrong, the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference never occurred, the dollar is not the reserve currency of planet Earth, oil is not traded in dollars, there is no deficit that Putin could exploit, and I should trust the government's CPI numbers.
    Oct 1 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: How To Play With A Falling Knife [View article]
    Agree or disagree, oil services guy2011 has the best profile on SA...
    ABOUT: "My life is really boring."
    Oct 1 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Rig Market Developments Bad News For North Sea Drillers [View article]
    Putin doesn't care about Crimea as much as he cares about oil under the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea adjacent to Crimea: http://nyti.ms/1pJ12PQ That oil is being connected to the network of pipelines that run through Kazakhstan to Siberia, ending in Nakhoda, for sale to China... http://bit.ly/1E0w6ja
    Because of the US national debt and its total dependence on the petrodollar http://seekingalpha.co..., the US$ could collapse, if oil were sold for rubles and rinmimbi. http://bit.ly/1rtQ5h5
    Oct 1 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Looks Like A Stock To Buy Now [View article]
    A bullcrap hit-page filled with innuendo set up by an anonymous google user whose profile name is fredriksenwatch?
    I place much more trust in my cat than that page, and I don't trust that furry little bastard.
    Oct 1 12:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doubling Down On Inflation [View article]
    You are correct about sectors in decline, but I would disagree with "However that is not the situation that exists today," since war debt per capita is worse than it was in the 70's, plus Congress has chosen a state of perpetual war to protect the petrodollar rather than reduce debt.
    Sep 30 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doubling Down On Inflation [View article]
    I love how couch traders are so much smarter than a billionaire when it comes to economics, especially when they believe the government's manipulated numbers on inflation, which remove anything that they consider an outlier.
    Q: Do changes in the money supply have a relationship with inflation?
    A: M*V = P*Q
    Bernanke explicitly stated that he wanted inflation to increase activity. The Federal Reserve needs to devalue the dollar by 33% http://onforb.es/zyyVvT, and the CBO later said that was still too little to pay obligations.
    We are living in a valley under a dam of fiat money, and when the velocity of money picks up, painful inflation will arise. We do not have hyperinflation now, because the petrodollar is the world reserve currency, and the US economy has an ever-lowering payroll/population ratio, reduced per capita productivity, and negative current ratio... 3/4 of those stabilizers are deadly to a country.
    Sep 30 11:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Price Capitulation Is Near [View article]
    RE: "I am not a market timer, but SDRL is really too cheap to fall much further."
    HA! Stock price has little to do with fundamentals. I also once thought that I had the ability to prophesy future events, but I learned (six figures later) that prognostication has a lot of syllables, but no use. There are stocks that slide to below book or discounted intrinsic value for years.
    Sep 30 09:59 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Lessons From The Frontline [View article]
    I learned the painful way to never underestimate how far a stock can drop. They can go to a penny for no good reason.
    Sep 29 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atwood Oceanics: Let's Assume The Worst [View article]
    Best article I've seen in a month.
    Sep 25 09:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fredriksen boosts Seadrill stake after shares slide 20% in three weeks [View news story]
    I thought API/Paired/et.al had created a new identity.
    Sep 23 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fredriksen boosts Seadrill stake after shares slide 20% in three weeks [View news story]
    mapodga's English makes more sense than 90% of the people on here.
    Sep 23 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fredriksen boosts Seadrill stake after shares slide 20% in three weeks [View news story]
    Reading between the lines, this sounds as if it is about to be as bitter as the divorce of SC's previous governor. http://bit.ly/Y1E36R
    Sep 23 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of Debt Covenants On The Amount Of Debt Seadrill Can Carry [View article]
    I appreciate questions from PVFederico, but I agree with the author that loan covenants are important. I often extended a secondary payment plan to borrowers, but also very often informed them that their time was up. I put liens on refunds, assets, and wages, and I'm the nicest guy I know- a bank would be ruthless about it.
    Sep 23 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of Debt Covenants On The Amount Of Debt Seadrill Can Carry [View article]
    If the article is accurate, not much. The covenant is based on debt/EBITDA, and dividends are paid out of retained earnings. (If SDRL did suspend the dividend and hoarded $1.97 billion per year, banks would be more likely to waive the covenant, because banks are reassured by cash-on-hand.)
    Sep 23 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking The Bear Case For Seadrill [View article]
    Somebody did here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 23 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
534 Comments
799 Likes