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31October

31October
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  • The One Variable That Will Determine Tesla's Future [View article]
    Surferbroadband, you were totally correct until you said, "Anton, over the long haul, ICE is finished."
    That is like saying the invention of beer meant that, over the long haul, wine is finished.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill cut to Sell at Goldman [View news story]
    That is a long list of suggestive leading questions.
    Do you have any evidence that Russia will seize SDRL assets?
    Did Fredrickesen disappear after Frontline failed?
    Can you show the cash flows based on reduced dayrates, less debt payments & maturities, and when SDRL will be forced toward bankruptcy?
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Buying Shares Of These 2 Small Cap Oil Stocks [View article]
    GST- "While the company does have $314.1 million in debt as mentioned, it also has strong liquidity, with a $145 million revolver and $106 million in cash, for $251 million in total liquidity."
    Their mrq cash or equivalents are only $47 million, a debt/cash ratio of 6.7. My GST-B shares are getting hammered, because the free cash flow is -$3.44/share. I hope the insider purchases are a real investment, and not corporate funds channeled through the directors to invoke false confidence.
    Dec 17, 2014. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8% Yield From MLPJ: A Diversified Small-Cap Energy MLP Fund [View article]
    The other thing to consider in favor of the corporate structure is that the dividends should be qualified. The distributions from ETNs are not qualified dividends; as debt payments, they are taxed as ordinary income. The ETNs might be good for an IRA account, the the ETFs are better for taxable trading accounts.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8% Yield From MLPJ: A Diversified Small-Cap Energy MLP Fund [View article]
    Agreed...
    But some brokers such as e*trade allow commission-free ETF purchases. I add one share at a time on days where the the general market is down and the RSI & CCI for MLPJ & MLPA are below the rest of market. This has given me a low-volatility portfolio using high-risk investments. Despite the crash in oil and ETF prices, the investments are much closer to green than my blood-covered 2 fracking and 10 drilling & E&P stocks. Those supposedly safe investments (XOM, ESV, CVX, etc.) all look like the victims of a slasher movie.
    It's only 1.5% of my portfolio, and it only works because of free trades, but it has done better than expected... so far.
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco: The Pain Is Far From Over Yet [View article]
    These articles are terrific. The DCF table with estimates that can be adjusted are some of the best on Seeking Alpha... I wish I had paid more attention to your previous article.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status And Third Quarter Results Analysis [View article]
    Google.
    Dec 13, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corporation: Net Asset Value [View article]
    Ryan, the industries may be different, but easy money can cause the same bubbles:
    http://bit.ly/1z5CUKv
    http://bit.ly/1zFK2Lt
    And one written a year after the fact: http://bit.ly/1z5CX90
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks [View article]
    "But now days, there is not one taxpayer reading reading the crap our so called representatives are writing."
    Do you actually think the representatives read what they vote on? Ain't nobody got time for that.
    Dec 12, 2014. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil slump threatens Norway’s economy [View news story]
    Axel, ignoring outliers, fracking breakeven prices normally range from ~$50-$70 per barrel http://bit.ly/1utDOuY, and Norwegian oil ranges from ~$52-75 http://slate.me/1utDU5O. But fracked wells deplete much more quickly than a deepwater well.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corporation: Net Asset Value [View article]
    These are the BEST articles on Seeking Alpha.
    "Assumptions used in the model are definitely as pessimistic as possible, especially on the operational lifetime of 6G drillships and high-spec jackups."
    You cannot be too pessimistic on rates, especially jackups, which compete on the lower end. If crude prices keep trending downward, leasing old low-end jackups will become so cheap that oil majors might be less interested in high-spec rigs, regardless of the previous trend toward high-spec.
    (Long, SDRL, ESV, NE, DRQ, NBL, OII.)
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crucial Facts About Energy Stocks [View article]
    "1. What country was the world's largest overall producer of energy?..."
    "1. China..."
    So all the hoopla about the USA being the biggest producer was false?
    http://bloom.bg/1v72ez6
    http://cnnmon.ie/1vUPs6q
    http://1.usa.gov/14wOM6f
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What else can go wrong for Seadrill? Plenty, it seems [View news story]
    I would assume that oil will stay down longer this time: North American demand is down, but supply is up, China and many other countries are repatriating gold (indicating that they are very worried about "something"), plus the ECB and Japan are trying to devalue their currencies aggressively. The dollar will go up relative to the devaluing euro & yen, causing oil price (always priced in dollars) to go down.
    I also learned from missing 2008-2009, so I've been buying, but probably too soon; this could go on for a long time.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This A Good Time To Buy Seadrill? [View article]
    "...why not select a financially strong company like Schlumberger...?"
    Because of the potential for higher return. I do have SLB; I can safely assume it will grow at maybe 7% per year. I might also buy some more SDRL when it goes below 10, again at 7, assuming rigs past 2016 are utilized, even if at lower rates. It might take 5 years to pay off, but the payoff is far more than just SLB.
    This is a chart of returns of four of my longer-term holdings, with S&P for comparison: http://bit.ly/1wv8ty6. SLB is nice, but the boom years for oil are insane for SDRL, which is a play on the price of oil. When oil is tight, the majors need to lock in long-term contracts, and the leveraged player, now sharply down, will sharply rise.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What else can go wrong for Seadrill? Plenty, it seems [View news story]
    Rebel, you are so right... Back in February, Morgan Stanley made pro-SDRL statements and reassured investors that the dividend was probably safe. They bought a ton of SDRL for holding in investor accounts, and I assumed they had an interest in making their customers some money.
    Later, according to NASDAQ, Morgan Stanley sold out SDRL and bought some SDLP (got commission on buy AND sell), I guess to tell clients, "You'd better lose 2/3 of your investment, so that you can get that yield."
    Now, Morgan Stanley tells the public that oil will drop by another third, but they are buying SDRL, not for client accounts, but for themselves... Hmmm. They now own over 5% of the outstanding stock.... Hmmm.
    I am shocked that there have never been widespread assassinations of market makers and investment managers. Everybody can see that big-name advisers swindle their investors, but people keep investing with these bastards.
    (Dear DHS & FBI, I do not advocate the boardroom assassination idea, but it would make a great movie, guns are very scary, there is not a smidgen of corruption in government, I report all my neighbors who don't trust the government, hail Obama.)
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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