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31October

31October
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  • Seadrill's Q1 Report: So Far So Good [View article]
    Better than expected only better because of the Seamex one-time sale, not from increased margin from continuing operations. Yes, SDRL is a good long-term hold, but their real challenges do not come due for 6-18 months.
    May 28, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT ETF/ETN Showdown: REM Vs. MORL [View article]
    "...I don't trust the federal government..."
    I have worked for the feds and a state, and I have studied economics & politics (I'm meeting an aspiring president soon, in fact). I trust the government, I trust it fully and 100% beyond, I trust it to do the absolute worst, most short-sighted, self-defeating thing possible, then I trust it to monetize itself out of whatever hole it dug.
    P.s.- I don't give candidates money. I just go to these meetings to find out who is.
    May 28, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don’t buy the head fake in offshore drillers, RBC says [View news story]
    The promise of the next super-quantum leap in battery technology has been around since I was born, and the implementation of it has always been just a few years down the road.
    All those technologies mentioned may come to into everyday being... But not in our lifetimes.
    May 28, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The YMBI&OC INCOME Portfolio V2.0: MORL, WMC, CEFL, BDCL, SLVO, LNCO + OXLC... [View instapost]
    My only goal in life is to be the person my dog thinks I am.
    May 28, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLP conference marred by notable no-shows, analyst says [View news story]
    If Deutsche Bank is unaware that KMI is not an MLP and that MLPX is an ETF, how much worth do I place in their analysis of the sector?
    May 27, 2015. 02:01 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - My Game Plan For This Week [View article]
    Just because a stock traded at a price once before does not mean that it should have then or will will again.
    SDRL has debt payments due around the same time that they and competitors are supposed to take delivery of new rigs. Combine that with lower-margin contracts. Entry point should be in 4Q 2015 at the earliest. I could be horribly wrong, and it doubles by then, but I don't see any impetus for that to happen.
    May 27, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Profitable To Trade Seadrill? [View article]
    byronsamuels, vehicles cannot be powered by solar, and the most expensive battery technology on earth contains 2% the energy/pound of diesel fuel. Electric hybridizing can compensate for the weaknesses of an internal combustion engine, but fossil fuels face no real competition.
    May 27, 2015. 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • X-Raying CEFL: Leverage And Expense Ratio Statistics [View article]
    You do good work, Stanford Chemist.
    I had BDCL first, but sold it two years ago, because I did better with individual BDCs. This spring, I sold LMLP out of fear: When I realized that I had made a mistake with CEFL, I decided to take the profit off the table before I learned any more surprises from a brand-new ETN.
    As for CEFL components not declining, rates have been pretty stable, and when I plugged in the top dozen component CEFs, almost all had lost value since their inception.
    May 26, 2015. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • X-Raying CEFL: Leverage And Expense Ratio Statistics [View article]
    CEFL is inferior to some other leveraged ETNs. Interest rates are at historic lows, and the CEFL's components are mostly debt funds now. If for some insane reason, the Fed (or debt markets) start driving rates up, the current value of the underlying CEFs will decline. This decline will theoretically be leveraged 2:1. Rebalancing can cause another (buy high-sell low) drop in value, as well.
    Even if rates remain unchanged for years to come, the component CEFs within CEFL have declining net asset values, and much of their distribution is return of capital. Plug the holdings into a CEF chart and see the dropping NAVs for yourself. Although ROC (or getting your own money back) is not taxed in a CEF, it is taxed when it passes through the ETN. As the component funds decline in NAV, the decline in NAV will also be leveraged.
    I do not see the advantage of getting taxed for receiving my own money back from value-losing funds, just because the leveraged yield number is high. I can receive the same yield from MORL without the decline in NAV, and a good yield from MLPL with low risk. I get attacked every time I bring up "total return," but I have an exit date when I want to sell some paper investments, retire, and buy beachfront condos (to live in and to rent out.) The total return of CEFL is far below MORL & MLPL, and has been dragging me away from my unattainable goal.
    May 26, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Start Of Recovery For Seadrill? [View article]
    Dubious is correct. SDRL's fixed costs relating to equipment & debt are high and will increase when new rigs are eventually forced upon them (I cannot speculate how long they can delay taking delivery; maybe indefinitely, but I doubt that.)
    With many rigs due to be delivered to various drillers over the next two years, SDRL's service becomes a commodity. To cover overhead expenses, they will have to make absolutely sure rigs are utilized, which could mean accepting lower-margin contracts, which would would mean limiting their upside.
    May 25, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Is MORL Overvalued? [View article]
    Yes, that's etfchannel's default.
    May 21, 2015. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Is MORL Overvalued? [View article]
    MORL has not been around for long, so this is a total return (somebody's head will explode over that term) chart of MORL's top 5 holdings relative to a gas fund: http://bit.ly/1cQ25sQ
    And here are some 10-year (or from start date) total return numbers from etfchannel:
    nly $16417.94
    agnc $36425.47
    stwd $22849.26
    nrz $5468.44
    two $24696.22
    TOTAL $105857.3
    vs. SPY $21618.37
    mREITS look great (MLPL is my 2nd largest holding, and MORL a very close 3rd), but here is the thing to worry about: Some of the outsized returns are from REITs that started at the exact trough of the financial meltdown. MORL is more peaky than it first appears. (Because of the currency war and low worker participation, there is no logical reason that interest rates should suddenly spike, but the government does not operate on logic.)
    If you didn't get MORL at low prices, your capital investment can drop horribly. For those of us planning on buying an oceanfront condo on Isle of Palms, that could push back our retirement for years. I'm not saying that it is a bad investment, just one that will be vastly more volatile than most people realize.
    May 21, 2015. 10:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETN Showdown: Is MORL Overvalued? [View article]
    My reply about fun living in low-tax states was reported & deleted.
    Well, if I'm going to be banned for nothing, then I might as well give them something: If weak little wusses emotionally break down over a joke about moving to low-cost areas, then they can take their dividend and leverage it up their trading account.
    I am off to see how many things I can be indignant over, because being easily offended is the American way. http://bit.ly/1BcY87r
    May 20, 2015. 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean sinks 5% as three more drillships idled [View news story]
    RIG's balance sheet is in the condition that banks would normally prefer. But a SDRL executive became an executive with their biggest lender. That lender specifically said that they will work with SDRL on debt plans. It's not about logic, it's about the connection.
    May 20, 2015. 06:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean sinks 5% as three more drillships idled [View news story]
    "The cost of production for these deep water plays make them uneconomical compared to turning on the spigot for the shale producers..."
    Sometimes, yes. Shale has a wide range of breakeven points, and many areas are comparable or more costly than UDW. The problem with UDW is the massive initial expenditures to get to those massive but deep reserves, and the debt built up becomes a serious problem if the rigs are not kept busy. http://reut.rs/1yfz3b6
    May 20, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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