31October's Comments

Deja Vu 2008: Crude Oil Market Entirely Detached from Fundamentals

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:37:58 -0400

Why would you brag about being the most onanistic academic on earth?

It is clear that those who CAN'T spend way too much time blogging about why they are too good TO.

Here is a mathematical formula:
(Rap star)^ (to the power if Rush Limbaugh) = Puffedup MacDaddy F-Banks.

Please cease embarrassing yourself. I am seeking knowledge, not narcissim.

On Oct 19 10:58 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:
> Too complicated for me, Dian, and I'm the leading academic energy economist in the world. I just hope that somebody who thinks otherwise opens their mouth when I give my next big lecture.

Cracker Barrel: An Investment Worth Exploring

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:36:21 -0400

Utilities will go up. States that implemented property tax freezes will raise sales taxes. My former city has a freaking rainwater tax, in addition to a hospitality tax on all food. Diesel costs could drive materials costs up. Employment & dining out income are dropping. I expect gross margin and revenue to decline.

On the plus side, my former company knew they had to get out of the union state to remain in the USA. During relocation, management wanted to meet at CRBL every time! The next wave of transplants woud say, "We were told by the others to eat at this Cracker Barrel place?"

Last week, 108 people from our NY/NJ company ate at P.F. Chang's. Nobody called Newark and said, "Hey, you gotta get down here and try this food!"

I hate the industry, but if you have to invest in restaurants, this one is as good as they come.

ConocoPhillips Plans Two Year Makeover

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 08:42:53 -0400

Excellent piece by Mr. Armistead. I stand by what I said on the referenced article. COP has a bad RoE, especially considering debt. The natural gas play is providing COP with un-storable inventory. I would look elsewhere until demand for crude & especially n.gas is on a climb, and inventory is in a long-term decline.

How to Profit From Greenhouse Gas Emission Restrictions and Incentives

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 11:36:59 -0400

Cap & trade will obviously cause an increase in utility bills. When the feds begin subsidizing people's big, fat utility bills, maybe they will outsource the work. That would be where to profit from CO2 emission restrictions.
Or you could just invest in Al Gore's GIM company, like Nobel committee members.

Bill Gross: Does California - and the U.S. - Have the Discipline to Turn Things Around?

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 10:20:21 -0400

On Oct 05 11:06 AM Living4Dividends wrote:

......Unfortunately, the residents of the state have to suffer the consequences.

Once D.C. bails out the California legislature, [again under threat of worldwide economic disaster if we don't] we will all be suffering right along with them.
"I cannot ease your pain, but I can feel it with you."

And Micheal Clark is correct that the average American is more disciplined that Congress. But the American balance on credit cards + car loans + other fixed payment debts totaled $16,600 in 2008. The average American has nine credit cards. Nine? 9? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? Take 535+1 of the most corrupt, pandering people from that average population and give them a printing press. That's our government.

Question:
Does California - and the U.S. - Have the Discipline to Turn Things Around?

Answer:
That was a rhetorical question, right?

Shining a Light on Solar Opportunities

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 11:41:21 -0400

Suddenly cutting half the American defense budget is a terrific idea. My family in Afghanistan may not agree, since they would be overrun and killed...

But as long as we use those dollars to support Al Gore's carbon-trading company, it's all good, right?

I'm sure it's come down since then, but the movable panels described were quoted at $36,000 for my house. Ain't gonna happen.

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger?

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:46:26 -0400

Is ConocoPhillips a Potential Multi-Bagger? Anything is.
But let's look at the numbers:

In case of reduced demand, while inventories are rising, they have a poor quick ratio. Also...
EPS -16.55
ROE -32.30%
P/Cash on hand 76
P/FCF - bleeding out
EPS past 5Y -5.07% despite Sales past 5Y 18.56%
Oper. Margin -8.95%
63% loss of cash flow from OPERATIONS! (6mos09/06mos08)
Insider Ownership only 0.29%, and nobody is buying.
Higher cost per barrel of extractable oil than BP, TOT, XOM.

I do not own XOM at current valuations, but I think the author might want to compare these ratios and trends. Look at PTR's numbers and pray for a downturn to buy. I still own BP, no regrets. I failed to sell CVX, but even that drag on my portfolio is a safer investment than COP.

A low p/s and EV/rev is not enough to make me believe that COP will completely reverse their history of poor productivity.

The Fed's Ponzi Scheme Has Run Out

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 10:50:30 -0400

Laying around unemployed, like 7 million Americans.

On Oct 01 09:33 AM sethmcs wrote:
> Gloom and doom can't last forever. It's morning in America. Where
> is Ronald Reagan?

Oil Going Off the Boil

Sat, 26 Sep 2009 20:27:23 -0400

Road Runner is correct, but there is also a second batch of price supporters: The exploration & driller cos, from domestic to the Saudis, need ~$70/barrel to make further extraction efforts worth it. With various corners of production needing a long-term floor to keep stable financing, and the US administration begging banks to provide financing, [[and the producers paying Congress]], then there is a triumvirate of price supporters.

(Whether it goes to the moon is debatable. But a diminishing resource needed by a population that is becoming more mobile even as it grows? Hmmm... Maybe the moon is not so lofty a goal. Next time it's <50, I'm in.)

Goldman to Invest in Chinese Car Maker

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:36:53 -0400

No, you don't point them anything.

Dozens of posters have replied to your incoherent spams. None have received a reply, because you were too busy uploading more mass comments.

I don't follow you, so it is a testimony to your proliferate flatulence that you are on most the pages anyway.

I post this needless comment only as a warning to anybody who attempts to translate your further musings.

P.s.: AA meets in every city in America. Take the time to invest in yourself.

On Sep 23 09:41 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> It's an interesting trade. When readers ask me about my next ten
> bagger, I point them to ...

What's Down with Commercial Real Estate?

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:28:58 -0400

Mad Hedghog Spammer,
How many times do you need to post the same comment before you find... actually, what is it that 2,990 repeated comments gives you?

On Sep 24 08:24 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> rdc The vultures are circling the embattled commercial real estateindustry....

A Few Truths About Oil

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:22:29 -0400

If you feel like subsidizing other people's purchases, I would love an electric car - red, with lots of rear leg room and a 200-mile range. Thanks for supporting my purchase.

Oh, wait, a Cayenne qualified for the clunkers program. Maybe you already bought me a new car. Well, thanks for that, plus the electric that you'd like to subsidize next.

The government has already spent your money on subsidies, tax credits, loopholes for legislators, and banker bailouts. If there were anything left, [there isn't] what would make it okay for you to be forced to buy me a car?

The opposite is the answer: Elimination of all subsidies, with a variable base tax under crude to create a stable pump price, reduce our desire to invade anybody, and prop up a hybrid/electric market. Slash all other taxes, and -bam- gas is still cheap relative to output & income.

On Sep 22 09:32 AM a. palmer jr. wrote:
> snip>
The solution, as I see it, is to go to electric vehicles. I don't mean hybrids because they still burn gas although for now it's stop-gap, I suppose. I think that as long as electric cars are so expensive that they should be government subsidized, at least for now. It would pay off in the long run.

Leading Indicators Offer More Confirmation of Recession's End

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 11:01:33 -0400

Indicators such as housing are unreliable by historic standards. The US taxpayer is indirectly backing about 80% of the bad loans in the country. With commercial real estate destined to decline, there will be more bad loans for workers to support. New housing starts are driven by subsidies, soon to be raised again. These positive numbers are fake, and would be unsustainable if they were real.

Worse, the taxpayers to back other people's bad loans are declining in number. Actual employment numbers are going down, not up. The claims appear to go down as disenfranchised workers leave. Not a single state that reported reduced unemployment numbers last month actually added a job.

[People left with jobs could tend to unionize (with government encouragement), thus driving even more jobs slowly eastward.]

Anybody who says we have come out of a recession should visit any of the hundreds of counties in the USA with 10+% official unemployment. These are the official, fudged, numbers; not even true unemployment.

Here are some other items that indicate economic conditions:

data.bls.gov/map/servl...

nelp.3cdn.net/fc4bd4e4...

blog.taragana.com/n/br.../

www.nytimes.com/intera...

Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:56:39 -0400

Mad Hedgehog Spammer does not read replies.

He is a litterbug, tossing empty bottles of wisdom out the window of a slowly drifting Buick into the information highway. His illegitimate son, Cetin, sometimes bails him out for DUI (Disseminating Useless Incoherency).

On Sep 18 01:33 PM ldker wrote:

> I have seen the guy above, the MAD SPAMMER - posting the same comment
> on each solar article appearing on Alpha for the past month. Mad,
> when you do this your credibility goes out the window as it appears
> to be spam to drum up business for your rinky dink operation. If
> you have nothing new to add, please stop it.

Dollar Stabilizes, Rally Slows

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 13:56:04 -0400

The "stronger" dollar is a result of lowered velocity of money and temporary deflation. 42 states lost jobs in August 2009, up from 29 in July. Employers have eliminated 7 million jobs since December 2007. States with drops in unemployment show up that way because the jobless gave up. None of those states actually added jobs.

If velocity picks up, then how far south can the dollar go? Look very far south, maybe Argentina, to find out. Americans do not have the savings mentality of the Japanese, so I suspect that the Fed/Treasury/Congress will eventually get what they want and devalue the dollar by at least 40% to avoid true debt repayment. The paragraph about Treasury bonds being a safe haven play is interesting: I pity the fool who moves into T-bills for safety. Non dollar based energy / minerals stocks will be the safe bet.

The dollar stabilization is just like the time I fell off a cliff. I smacked a ledge on the way down. There was a brief moment when I was not falling.

25 years later, I am not likely to go repelling again. And the lenders whom we shafted with dollar devaluation will not be likely to buy our treasury debt again.

Palladium: The New Platinum

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:22:38 -0400

On Aug 28 07:28 PM Mark Anthony wrote:
......
> Palladium's bright future in Cold Fusion application, humanity's
> only real hope of overcoming the looming Peak Oil energy crisis,
> is another gigantic positive factor for palladium. Cold Fusion research is picking up momentum quickly in recent years, despite of lack of government research funding support, as piling experimental evidences in over 2 decades prove beyond reasonable doubt that the Cold Fusion phenomena is real. CBS 60 Minutes aired a program on Cold Fusion
> on April 19, 2009.
> www.cbsnews.com/video/...

Without even commenting on cold fusion as humanity's only hope, I will point out AGAIN that the government has been funding research for two decades, as well as attempting to duplicate results in-house. The Navy's one result was to be a false positive, and twenty other reports have been made public. 60 Minutes is just another popdirt.com/mike-walla.../ fluff show. Since I am not cranially gifted, I will to listen to my old buddies from AP Chem & Physics who are now post-docs in physics and believe them over Leslie Stahl.
www.aps.org/about/pres...

My family's side jewelry business has seen zero increase in platinum demand, but we have slow demand for silver; and had an abnormal level of requests for custom gold pieces. I don't know what that means on a macro level. I look at pgm metals as industrial catalysts, but jewelry is a component.
Long SWC, and hoping that their cash-on-hand helps them overcome the GM damage.

China's Solar Wafer Production Seems Out of Control

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:24:07 -0400

More like Mad Hedge Spammer.

On Sep 08 10:40 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:
> potym. The solar industry is suffering some 19th century Darwinian
> style competition, with Chinese manufacturers ...
Babelfish translation:
.... ramble ...Oldsmobile, GM, greatest generation... is anybody out there... drunken ramble... this is Robert Neville... ramble, spam ... Cetin, come upstairs, boy... incoherent ramble, spam...

BP Pays a Moral Price for Securing Libyan Gas

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 19:43:38 -0400

I am stunned that people would be intentionally obtuse to a blatant blood for oil deal. You were probably screaming bloody murder over invading Iraq, but this is okay, right?
Of course it was years in the making; but it took a 'trade' to close the deal. One of my favorite companies, BP has been very good to me. But if they get stabbed in the back like the oilers in South America were, then I shall feel no sympathy.

www.timesonline.co.uk/...

BP lobbied Jack Straw before he changed mind over Lockerbie bomber.
Author is correct. End of discussion.

On Aug 26 12:10 AM realold wrote:

> My sympathies are included. But, are you saying that Scotland released the terrorist so that BP could get the contract? That is a little much and I would believe that the BP deal has been long in the making. Good for BP and the west.

Why Invest in Oil Over Alternative Energy

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 10:20:04 -0400

P.s.: Nuclear should be on the table as an ingredient in the energy casserole. France is a terrible place to live, but when I was there, it was physically very clean because of the nukes.

And I want to back up jerrydd - My brother in law has a boat powered entirely by tidal power. I made a little money trading OPTT, but maybe I should have kept it. It's free power. (But I gotta differ with him on oil as a long-term investment. Limited resources vs. growing population with increasing mobility sounds like a great investment to me. :-)

Again, do not let the arguments against wind / solar / nuclear obfuscate legitimate reasons for crude-based stock picks. We don't burn west Texas intermediate for electricity.

Why Invest in Oil Over Alternative Energy

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 09:41:44 -0400

All this about wildly spinning blades cracks me up. I have been to wind fields. There are no flocks of dead birds littering the ground. The blades sound like "whoosh! whoosh! whoosh!" hardly a screaming jet. The blades here are made with balsa, not energy-intensive aluminum. Somebody somewhere always has to come up with a B-S excuse why we can't...

Wind and solar are perfectly complemented by natural gas generators. Natural gas is as green a any fossil fuel could hope to be, the turbine generators can spool up and down qickly to counter the unstable wind & solar supply; and we have an abundance of it. Combine those 3 with any form of kinetic energy storage, and you have extremely low carbon, zero toxic, zero particulate electricity.

Why does everybody want to make a practical, clean, flexible, and screamingly obvious solution so ridiculously difficult?

The author's summation is wrong. We do not get our electricity from crude oil. Everybody knows that. Electrical generation and transportation fuel are different. People should be VERY long on oil, but the reasons have nothing to do with the non-sequitars into wind.

Distinction Between Positive and Normative Economics Misses the Point

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:32:18 -0400

Fred, you're more puffed up on yourself than a rap star.

When I was in I/T at one college, many "academics" could not turn on a printer. When somebody like me has to tell a Harvard MBA that the giant blinking led is the power button, then I wonder if she should be haranguing students with her brilliance.

Now, I am involved in politics. Finally, a group that makes academics look as smart as they think they are.

P.s. - Economic activity as quantified by resource allocation - if it can be tracked & measured - is not purely nominative. Just the means of ecouraging activity is.

On Aug 29 08:54 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Well, let's see Professor Marron. I not only am the leading academic energy economist in the world, but I am a great great teacher. I must confess though that I have never thought about this normative vs positive thing because, according to one of my teachers - Gunnar Myrdal - all economics is normative.
>
> He was at least 51% right. I taught mathematical economics for centuries,
> but now that I think of it, the mere fact that I took it seriously
> and was careful about the book I used meant that it was normative.
> What do I mean by that? I mean that the people who studied under
> me were not dumber when the course was over than when it started,
> as is often the case.
>
> By the way, let me tell you how I introduce myself to students. I
> tell them that I am the best economics teacher in the world, and
> I expect them to learn what I teach PERFECTLY. A couple of students
> at the Asian Institute of Technology last year didn't get the message
> at first, but they saw the light before the class was over. And I
> kid you not.

How Goldman Sachs Games the System

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:42:07 -0400

They did call. You were tied up, so Trader Mark took the call.

On Aug 31 08:37 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> I'm glad that nobody called and asked me what I think about Goldman
> Sachs. If he did I would say that when I was teaching finance I couldn't
> praise them enough, and I told everyone in my classes that if they
> ever found themselves in the US and needed some heavy bread, go in
> and have a talk with the GS bosses and ask for a job.
>
> Of course, they might be doing a few things that they shouldn't do,
> but so did Big Bill Clinton and George W., and you hardly hear any
> any bitching and moaning on this site about them.

How the Fed Has Failed Us

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:35:01 -0400

There is a street-corner game where the dealer puts a random card under cups and shuffles them around. Some players are allowed to win legitimately (lucky), and some are plants by the dealer (C, BAC, GS).

But the wins are merely ploys to keep suckers in the game.

Greenspan, Paulson, Summers, Bernake, et. al. were/are good dealers. But it is all just a game of cards. Making a deck have 104 cards instead of 52 does not change the outcome.

On Aug 31 08:49 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:
> They may have failed you, gentlemen, but they haven't failed me.
> Dr Summers and Dr Bernanke are going to make things groovy for us
> again. I think that I'll get on the phone to the President and tell
> him to turn those two loose on energy and health care, because the
> people who are carrying those loads don't seem to know which way
> is up.

First Solar Sell-Off Is Overdone

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:25:40 -0400

The consistency of tellurium supply is a legitimate question. But FSLR does not consume insane quantities, and FCX (and other miners) produces tellurium (from copper telluride) from mines all over the world, excluding China.

Tellurium can be supplied -- at higher cost -- if need be. A stoppage could actually bring the price down to a buy level, as long as the investor understands gross margin would be reduced by more expensive input prices.

The Hun's Top 12 Value Buys

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:50:51 -0400

SBLK and PRGN are good choices for shipping. PRGN has a better quick and P/CF ratio; plus SBLK's revenue growth has tapered off. (A non-value choice is GNK.)
I would say that NE, ATW, and NRG are good energy values, as well.

Energy Secretary Chu Wimps Out Again

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 11:06:59 -0400

Yes, President Obama done a great job reversing Bush's bailouts, ending the fascist direction of private companies by political forces, ending pork-barrel earmarks, correcting the SSI ponzi-scheme cash flow problem, and reducing the deficit, with a goal of paying down debt by next year. What an amazing reversal!

Hail to the new king... Same as the old king.

On a different note, HR1835 is moot. By the time anything gets through Congress, it will be a diversion of your taxes to their earmarks. Put a variable base tax under gasoline, and n.gas will take care of itself.

On Aug 28 10:20 AM jerrydd wrote:
...
> Obama's deficits come from Bush, repubs policies which got us in this, mess, Obama is just trying to clean it up. This author just shows he has little understanding of either energy, economics or politics.

First Solar Sell-Off Is Overdone

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 13:11:21 -0400

For the same reason that Microsoft or Google would buy technology that could not -- or could have -- competed with their own.

On Aug 26 11:44 AM Steve Pluvia wrote:

> Ummm yea. Why would FSLR buy a different technology that can't compete
> on any level with their own? My advice to you: Don't invest your
> own money, you don't have a clue about the alt energy sector.

Eastern Winds Favor Diana Shipping

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:58:56 -0400

P.s. - Audit Integrity scores for DSX & EXM have dropped since last time I updated. That could matter.
Debt/equity and quick ratio are better for DSX than EXM.
If you really believe shipping is about to explode (I don't), then GNK is well-positioned for fast growth, with more leverage (debt) and cash on hand, and faster sales growth rate.

The Liquidity Canard

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:03:57 -0400

His spamposts appear to be the offspring of basement geek Cetin and rambling Mad Hedge Fund.

How do spammers find the time to meet and start a family?

On Aug 25 08:52 PM expat in China wrote:
> Lawrence!
> If you going to spam your blog at least follow Cetin and right a
> little catchy by line!

Supercycle or Not, Expensive Oil Is Unavoidable

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 21:52:21 -0400

New cars bought on CREDIT. Even better.

On Aug 25 08:14 PM Alan Young wrote:
> Sadly, there is no sign that Americans are going to change their
> transit patterns anytime soon. The Obama administration could have
> designated stimulus funds on transit projects, but gave us "cash
> for clunkers" instead--hundreds of thousands of NEW CARS. This doesn't
> bring us closer to giving up our cars, or moving back from suburbs
> to cities to reduce transportation costs.