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31October

31October
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  • Understanding Seadrill's Forward Financial Needs [View article]
    Yes- I thought it should be included, because it affects SDRL's forward financial needs: Worse in the short term, but the deal will help them in two years just as they face the cash crunch.
    Jan 3, 2015. 08:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Is Seadrill's West Polaris Purchase A Bullish Sign? [View article]
    Mr. Wiley, I see your point, but I could sell one of my rental houses to the tenants and finance the deal. By your definition, SDRL's purchase of the rig they were leasing from Ship Finance was a paper shuffle.
    This is great for SFL for now and pays for itself for SDRL in 2 years, right around when SDRL has debts & obligations come due. By that critical moment in time, SDRL will have more assets, less debt, and lower lease payments, meaning higher cash from operations.
    Jan 2, 2015. 07:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Seadrill's Forward Financial Needs [View article]
    Daedalus, two of the best articles on Seeking Alpha look at exactly those things.
    DCF value: http://seekingalpha.co... and
    Debt & obligations: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 2, 2015. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Seadrill's Forward Financial Needs [View article]
    No mention of West Polaris? $108M will be paid to SFL, plus SDRL pays off the $348M balance on the loan, so total cash will be reduced $456M, but SDRL also saves $70 million in leasing costs.
    Jan 2, 2015. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Audi's Hybrid Q7 Cause Tesla's Model X Backlog To Evaporate? [View article]
    The people who would spend $136K for a Tesla do so to say that they did so. They could also afford a Q7 PHEV for longer trips. The vehicles are complimentary, not competitive.
    Jan 1, 2015. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status As Of December 30 After Acquisition Of The West Polaris [View article]
    If I understand, then $108M went to SFL, and SDRL paid off the $348M balance on the loan, so total cash declined $456M.
    I was initially alarmed at paying out ANY cash heading toward the 2016 crunch, but $456M cost/$239M contract rate works out to 1.9 years to break even... Not bad.
    Jan 1, 2015. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. opens door to condensate exports [View news story]
    Desperation leads to extremism and aggression, not logical peace planning.
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    "Having worked for government, industry and consulting I will offer that the real problem is government incompetency and not the industry."
    YEP. Having worked for the federal, state, and county governments, and for the private sector, I would add that the further away the level of government gets from people, the less accountable and more horrific the incompetency gets.
    Dec 30, 2014. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    Saratogahawk "I would like to see Europe and Japan emerge from their recessions and to see the US return to historic post-recession recovery rates."
    The ECB and BOJ are in a race to devalue their currencies (instead of real change) to recover. The decline in yen & euro will make the dollar stronger, and therefore oil, priced in dollars, cheaper... That is one of the reasons I think oil could be cheap longer than last time.
    Dec 30, 2014. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill exercises option to purchase West Polaris [View news story]
    Oh, I've looked- The majority of what I own is oil-related, and I expect my descendants to be quite wealthy. The LONG-term trend is my friend. But the IEA recently reduced the estimated growth rate in demand, and domestic supply from nontraditional has been increasing. http://bit.ly/1B2a1Q5 The Saudis have refused to cut production until May at the earliest, and they have made statements about eliminating weaker OPEC members, that Russia does not deserve market share, and the damaging of American shale competition. Eventually, cuts in capital expenditures & exploration will crimp supply and cause a price spike, but not nearly yet.
    The ECB and BOJ have decided to devalue their currencies as hard and fast as possible, the ruble has collapsed, so the US dollar actually seems to be stronger (everything is relative), and that trend will also likely continue for a while...
    I see nothing that would make this drop in oil prices a v-shaped blip, other than some sort of major geo-political supply disruption.
    Dec 30, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill exercises option to purchase West Polaris [View news story]
    If there were a clear change in the supply-demand chart of crude, I would agree. But SDRL has big 2016 expenses coming, and they should batten down the hatches until there is an uptrend in oil prices.
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    Are they insane? There has been no clear catalyst to cause sustained higher oil prices.
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    Page 6: http://bit.ly/1CQrI4B
    (Jackups do have lower breakeven rates.)
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    According to Seadrill, their cash-flow breakeven is $359,000 per day for floaters. Their last two contracts were signed at $500,000 per day with PBR. Earnings may be declining, but utilization can be more important during bad years.
    Dec 29, 2014. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    This article shows the correct way to compile and present information. 90% of Seadrill prognosticators should be insecure and jealous of Mr. Wan's analysis.
    (I looked at Wan's bio- He is still a grad student... Not bad! I was still Keynesing at his age.)
    Dec 29, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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