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31October

31October
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  • Your Oil Stocks Aren't Coming Back [View article]
    There are safe ways to stay in fossil energy during a prolonged recession. CHK.PR.E is a preferred that currently pays almost 10% from where I bought it. With its n.gas operations, it should be fine during the recession. BP pays almost 8% (for now) is more international, more diversified, and well-capitalized for the decline.

    As long as I do not sell, I am making money, not losing it.
    Feb 20 10:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: The Time to Buy Is Now [View article]
    Have faith in...
    ...Morgan Stanley
    ...Bank of America (on CNBC)
    ...that DRYS's cash crunch is not serious
    ...that Economou will not divert funds to Cardiff AGAIN
    ...that he will not use DRYS to profit private holdings AGAIN
    ...book value is accurate as vaguely reported
    ...that an offshore company would never lie in a press release (ROFLMAO! Whew- I can't breathe!)
    ...American consumer demand for Chinese goods will go up because of US government stimuli, although the dollar will decline against the rinmimbi, making Chinese products expensive
    ...and that Economou would never divert funds to himself & his nephew, while stiffing ex-wives via DRYS???

    Sorry, I don't have that much faith in anything.
    Feb 19 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Your Amusement: General Motors' Restructuring Plan [View article]
    Re:
    old boat guy "...General Motors is where it is because of dopes running it and, mainly, BAD, CRUMMY cars."

    Congress may be making worse decisions than I would have imagined possible, but the pernicious attacks on GM product are incorrect: Posters keep missing the last DECADE of continual product improvement.

    Statistically, GM registrations are longer than almost any make, meaning they last longer. Their new dual-mode hybrids are heavier-duty and have higher % gains than Toyota hybrids. The new models surpass Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes, and Toyota in quality. They beat BMW to market with direct-injected turbo engines, make higher power with better economy than many competitors, and the interiors no longer fall out when you open the door. My father's van went trouble-free 350K & my used Chevette 120K before I totalled it, and my Saturn went 250K before I sold it - trouble free.

    I do not drive a GM. I do not defend their marketing or financial stupidity. But I am sick of stereotypes left over from 1979. GMs are no longer "bad, crummy cars."

    Many of us did embarrassing things in the 70's. But this is the 21st century, and product is the only good thing about GM. Adjust perceptions.
    Feb 18 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford a Likely Survivor of the Auto Industry Crisis [View article]
    "GM & Chrysler have no vehicless that are market leaders in any segment."

    CTS & CTS-V
    Corvette, ZO6, ZR1
    Malibu, Aura, Vue, HHR, Cobalt SS, G8

    None are cars that I want (maybe ZR1, but it has nowhere for booster seats), but they are all high in segment reliabilty, performance, awards, and are profitable lines. Ford hybrids are better than Toyota's, but GM multi-modes declutch the fragile parts of the CVT, which indicates better longevity, heavier-duty capacity, and superior efficiency % gains.
    1982 was a long time ago - GM has improved.

    After it emerges from Chapter 11, GM could be a powerhouse company.
    Feb 17 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals and Shipping: Some Recent Developments [View article]
    Not to say I told ya so, but ...
    "Avoid any shipper ...who has not yet cut the dividend - because they will." EXM, my 2nd favorite dry shipper, has cut the dividend.

    DRYS was going to sell a 1995 Panamax vessel at a 50% loss, then got stiffed by Samsun Logix for a $1.5 million deposit, which means the sale is probably defunct.

    Why do they need to sell anything at a 50% loss?

    DRYS is selling distressed assets to people who cannot pay, has too many ships [fixed costs from overcapacity can kill.], has too little cash, is shockingly corrupt, and has switched into long-term charters at low rates. So, if government borrowing makes trade explode, they are out of the spot market anyway. And if government stimuli have no effect, then they are dead in the water from cash drain.

    Wait for factory declines to bottom out, then buy back into shipping. With GNK, EXM, NM, and ESEA out there (I already sold DRYS, EXM, and ESEA), why would anybody risk anything on DRYS? Nitroglycerine is more stable.
    Feb 17 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How the World Almost Came to an End on September 18, 2008 [View article]
    @:
    infp
    BlackyBlack
    Jason C. Rines (iThinkBig)
    John Lounsbury
    Andrew Hughes

    All intelligent, logical thoughts & projections!
    But that begs another question: What happended to the typical crazies? Are they busy preparing a run for Congress?
    Feb 12 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals and Shipping: Some Recent Developments [View article]
    Mr. Anthony,

    I hardly think that government earmarks - on bridges to nowhere, green bean museums in SC, bonuses to NYC bankers, and graffitti monuments in CA - can compensate for lower factory orders.

    Chinese workers are migrating back from the city factories, indicating lower output from an export nation. China is supporting domestic demand and has boosted domestic agriculture.

    USA consumer demand is still declining. Americans are using the stimulus money (stolen from their own grandchildren) to pay local grocery and gas bills. And USA consumerism is delicate, because China could decide that their growing middle class is a better investment than loaning money to the US Treasury.

    "Feb 12 (Reuters) - Greek dry bulk carrier Star Bulk Carriers Corp (SBLK) said it was suspending its cash dividends..." supports my assertion that shippers will hunker down. DRYS has no dividend to cut, and its quick ratio is less than 1, so it has no easy savings.

    E*Trade says DRYS "Q4 earnings are expected to be announced after market hours on February 11, 2009," but I see no announcement - another bad sign. It reminds me of CXTI. "January 22, 2009, Thursday Suspension of Dividend" is all their financial calendar lists.

    Government spending in no way makes DRYS a safe investment: Factory orders and increasing commodity demand will make DRYS a good investment. And that assumes Economou does not do what he does best.

    Good hunting.
    Feb 12 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Deflation Will Persist for Longer Than You Think [View article]
    All these are completely true:
    "Unemployment/Lack of Consumer Spending" "Excess Capacity" "High Inventories" "Housing Prices" "Private Sector Debt/Income"

    The author is correct, but investors should prepare for the opposite. In the face of deflation, I would prepare for inflation. Most people do not understand how MUCH non-existent "virtual" money is being printed, and how much unpayable debt the USA has accrued.

    The first time that virtual fake money starts to move, latent inflation will take off like a rubber band pulled waaaaaay back by deflation.

    The FED reaction mentioned will come *intentionally* a day late and a dollar short:
    The USA cannot pay its debts without diluting them by massive inflation.
    Feb 12 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankruptcy Could Reduce GM's Debt by 65% [View article]
    "I'm tired of all of you Toyota republicans"

    You say that on every page. What does that even mean???

    Although you are 100% correct in the stupidity of borrowing money and enouraging people to waste it, GM is a different subject.

    If a person wants GM to survive [I very much do] - then he must accept that drastic moves are necessary. This patient has cancer, and we can keep hooking ever-more complex life support machinery to it. Or, we can put the patient under and cut the cancer out so that it might survive. Without extreme measures, General Motors is not a viable, survivable entity.

    I made a loan to GM by buying their bonds because I want them to succeed. But like every debtholder, I took a risk. Without bankruptcy, the taxpayers are just paying debtholders. Is that what you want? [THANKS, by the way!]

    GM must eliminate divisions, must close dealerships, and must reduce legacy costs. All those cancers are legally protected, ensuring the eventual death of GM. For my bonds and your pension, something is better than nothing.

    If you want GM to survive, cowboy up and accept what must be done.
    Feb 11 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals and Shipping: Some Recent Developments [View article]
    So, if I understand from your last 89 posts...
    ...if PGM production stops, then it is bullish.
    ...if PGM production is up, then it is bullish.
    ...if PGM prices are down, then it is bullish.
    ...if PGM prices are up, then it is bullish.
    ...and PGMs are immune to long-term demand destruction.
    Thanks, I feel better about all those paper losses.

    Re: Alex Filonov "Palladium is used exclusively as an industry metal. There is no known investment or jewelry use."
    My family's business makes platinum and palladium jewelry daily. But you and the other posters are correct - We could trade the gold, but people would not accept platinum or palladium for barter. PGMs are completely useless in that regard.

    H.J. Huneycutt is also correct about shipping. Layoffs in the USA are rising, and demand destruction has barely begun to trickle up. Until factories start running at capacity, ships face a long-term decline in demand. Avoid any shipper whose cash from from continuing operations did not grow, with a quick ratio < 2, debt/equity >.75, and who has not yet cut the dividend - because they will.

    If you are considering DRYS [bad idea], read my comments here:
    seekingalpha.com/user/...
    Feb 11 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Plays Dangerous Game at Investors' Expense [View article]
    How do I explain this to my wife?
    But first things first: I guess I'll go get a single, domestic beer with what's left of my big, fat SIRI investment...


    On Feb 11 10:52 AM satellite radio is dead wrote:

    > Moronic posters to this story, your bus is leaving. The stock is
    > a ZERO, common stockholders have no say in a bankruptcy filing. You
    > clearly don't understand company capital structures. Debt holders
    > are at the front of the line when a company goes bank-o. If Sirius
    > can no longer pay their bills, the debt covenants stipulate that
    > the company is in the hands of the debt holders. They'll dictate
    > how the debt will be restructured. The common stock is finished,
    > holders of common stock have no power in a bankruptcy. Six cents
    > is a great deal when you consider zero is the real value. So sell
    > the stock and take your tax loss.
    Feb 11 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale of Two Suntech Powers [View article]
    investfarm, thanks for the concise reply on trademark infringement.
    Feb 10 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Takes Down Cramer, Again [View article]
    Everybody is too hard on Jim Cramer. I make money doing the opposite of whatever he said to do.

    I like how he tells everybody to "BUY" the highest performer in my portfolio and thus give it that little boost to take it to "eleven."

    (Otherwise, I'd consider him just another self-aggrandizing and useless blowhard, if I considered him at all.)
    Feb 8 06:36 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miller Tabak Neutral on Sirius XM [View article]
    I'm agreeing. Bankruptcy does not have to be an immediate concern:
    A debtholder has leverage, and SIRI does not need to be cornered.


    On Feb 06 04:15 PM 163888 wrote:

    > 31October, First of all I would just like to say it was not my comment.
    > It was "homers". while I would like to take credit I cant. Second
    > you do realize he is not saying that bankruptcy is even close at
    > this point. I do think it adds a concern to my previous thought of
    > why any converts would not just reconverts for better terms. Echostar
    > just took that right off the table as one of Mels last options, because
    > while it was a option open to Mel, it was not one he wanted and stated
    > so.
    Feb 6 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miller Tabak Neutral on Sirius XM [View article]
    163888, you made the best points. I got ripped all over yahoo finance last year for saying that CC would go under, and how BBI was part of a strategy.

    This deal looks very familiar to me - it is about Echo getting leverage over SIRI assets without having to buy the whole company or assume full risk. I wish I owned SIRI debt instead of common.

    Unfortunately, I believe in the concept, own a crapload of SIRI, and am quite broke.
    Feb 6 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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