31October

The Liquidity Canard

His spamposts appear to be the offspring of basement geek Cetin and rambling Mad Hedge Fund.

How do spammers find the time to meet and start a family?


On Aug 25 08:52 PM expat in China wrote:
> Lawrence!
> If you going to spam your blog at least follow Cetin and right a
> little catchy by line!

Supercycle or Not, Expensive Oil Is Unavoidable

New cars bought on CREDIT. Even better.


On Aug 25 08:14 PM Alan Young wrote:
> Sadly, there is no sign that Americans are going to change their
> transit patterns anytime soon. The Obama administration could have
> designated stimulus funds on transit projects, but gave us "cash
> for clunkers" instead--hundreds of thousands of NEW CARS. This doesn't
> bring us closer to giving up our cars, or moving back from suburbs
> to cities to reduce transportation costs.

Eastern Winds Favor Diana Shipping

I have a formula to predict the best companies. For shipping, I came up with GNK, PRGN, SBLK; DSX was number 4. The formula works okay. But I ignore the numbers sometimes.
I $old EXM last month (but will rebuy later), am in the red on NM (low on the list, but I like their business.)

Any shippers should be treated with caution. If China decides internal control outweighs stockpiling, American CRE declines, the dollar moves too much, or employment (real, not government fudge) gets worse, then trade could falter sharply.

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

Re: conceptwizard
Forbes and everybody else who prefers a crack high over muscle mass were begging for MtM to be repealed.
After major banks lobbied [paid] the inbred Congress get rid of fair-value accounting, FASB was intimidated to change the rules when stocks were low by threats of bipartisan Congressional action.

Thank goodness politicians are analysing the books instead of us accountants. People might have a clue otherwise.


On Aug 24 12:12 PM conceptwizard wrote:
> Two nobel prize winning economists Merton and Scholes' state that without a reversal of the "mark to market" accounting rules for the banks, there will be no recovery. Many top economists believe that the economy will not recover unless and until the real state of the banks and their assets are acknowledged and insolvent banks broken up in an orderly fashion.
> The Financial Accounting Standards Board is, in fact, considering a reversal from its April change in policy which suspended mark-to-market accounting. Specifically, FASB is considering vastly tightening mark-to-market requirements to include virtually all securities on a bank's balance sheet.The Obama administration believe that setting these rules aside and allowing the assets to increase in value after the recovery, that the assets will be worth more. We are not dealing with reality, there is more pain to come.
>

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy

On Aug 07 12:47 PM Heyya wrote:

> Excellent article. I enjoy all of Mr. Shaefer's articles. They are
> a bit wordy, but informative, very interesting, and very intelligent.
> Also interesting comments above, and I highly agree with jerrydd.
>
>
> The issue of overpopulation came up a few times above, and this is
> certainly a significant issue that is largely ignored. Perhaps, instead
> of or in addition to spending the big bucks on climate change programs,
> we should increase funding for population control in unsustainable
> growth countries?

We are on the way:
China already has soldier-enforced abortions, the USA uses wars, Congress is modifying wording on rationed health care, and the president attempted to reinstate American money for foreign abortions.
Maybe all those things are moral and correct to somebody, somebody other than the payers & recipients. I prefer to forecast and prepare for a planet of twelve billion. And with that many people, fossil fuels become a dot on the timeline of history.
The poster above has an excellent point about government waste and idiocy. The future needs a diverse energy plan, but one not managed by politicians in DC [Dungpile City.]

Sirius XM's Game Changer About to Rock

Whay are any posters who are not Crameresque cheerleaders being attacked?
My car came with XM. It was wonderful, but I also have a disc-changer, so why pay and pay? Millions of Americans are not employed, and millions more are deleveraging; luxuries will get sacrificed.
I still have thousands of shares and lots of hope for the expansion (and miniturization) of the product.
But investors must be realists. This is an investment website, not a Sirius fanpage on Facebook. Subscriber growth, retention, and sustainable cash flow are legitimate questions.

If your stance cannot be quantified, then take the "Sirius sucks" or "you're a dumb basher" attacks to yahoo finance.

Crude Oil: Weak Outlook Going Forward

Technical indicators are screaming to sell my best performers, oil & copper. Instead, I'm waiting for a collapse to buy more: The oil producing nations need crude at $~70 barrell, the oil majors who lobby Congress (yes, Democrats take the money, too) need oil at $~70. Progressive congressmen want oil at $70 to get support for solar & hybrid subsidies.

Oil oligarchs, Wall Street, and Capitol Hill are united in putting a floor under oil prices, so I'm not worried about long-term price collapse, just autumn dips. (But Larry House is correct - prices will be prevented -- by any means neccessary -- from spiking.)

Why Another Stock Market Collapse Could Be Imminent

Re:
On Aug 07 01:47 AM shave-tits wrote:
> buy sin stocks, like alcohol and aspirin. people will booze &
> pop pills to kill the pains they will be feeling.

If that is what your kind does when laid off, then I support your freedom. But every state in the USA is covered in debt, and they will tax your freedom heavily. Therefore, better stocks might be those in limited assets, the means to move or tranform those assets, and energy.

Lots of people, when they get laid off, do not get drunk and stoned. They get a new job. Consider that while investing.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy

Re:
On Aug 07 09:55 AM chap08 wrote:
I don't mean to pick on Tony but I highlight his words below .<snip>.. I'm guessing that Tony doesn't really know what our part in global warming is. The reason I'm guessing that is because nobody really knows the answer. There's plenty of evidence on both sides. Have you read it?

I'm guessing he has.
Ice & rock testing shows that many times in Earth's history, there was far more CO2 than now, but foliage could could swing it back. There has indeed been an increase in CO2 from fossil fuels, but this increase also comes from breaking the gas exchance cycle through forest destruction. Breathing & cow farts have almost as much effect as our cars on greenhouse gases.

In addition to reduced foliage, there is solar activity warming everything out to Jupiter, whose red spot is shrinking from "climate change." The [insert political party not-of-your-choosing] are probably responsible, and Europa is threatening sanctions against USA exports.

Comprehensive alternative energy policy is needed for future energy supply, national security, tech jobs, etc. But if every car on Earth vanished, would the planet cool down? Nope. That paranoid psychosis has been disputed all over the place. We should be exploring reforestation, battery technology, high-power macro-grids, and preparing for expensive crude.

(Tony's comment was correct, but it does not mean that we should not change our behavoir anyway.)

Why Another Stock Market Collapse Could Be Imminent

On Aug 05 11:41 PM nova wrote:
> Just a note: the Soviet Union went "out of business" but Russia had
> to pay off Soviet debts. Regardless of what happens to the USA, it
> will have to pay off most of its debts.

The USA is aggressively depreciating the dollar. The government is forcing a reduced settlement on its unwilling suckers (lenders) by paying in half-dollars. This hidden default is an undeclared bankruptcy that makes the Fed, Treasury, and Congress feel good.

SEC Finally Exposes GE's Tricks for Beating Estimates

Actually, it's amazing how irritating a mosquito can be.

*** Comic-Con, Cetin, Comic-Con:
There are girls there... Ones you might stand a chance with...
If you rent a Bentley and promise them candy...


On Aug 05 07:07 PM Darthmouth Economics wrote:
... good articles for a slow news day: www.iamned.com

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Cetin,
About 20,000 people who recently got laid off care.
Please get a job and move out of your mom's basement.
Stop spamming and try a life.


On Aug 04 10:04 AM reboot wrote:

> dow 14,000 soon? looks like no one cares about recession anymore
>
>
> good articles 4 slow news day www.iamned.com

Everybody Hates Leveraged ETFs

"...Edward Jones said that it will stop selling leveraged ETFs. ...UBS (UBS Wealth Management Americas) announced that it has suspended the purchase of leveraged and inverse ETFs for its wealth management clients...."

What is most telling is that these "advisors" were selling leveraged ETFs to wealth management clients. I trade these, but I have little to lose. What kind of idiot would sell this to somebody to retire on?

All these state AGs investigating Direxion need to investigate the incompetent brokers instead.

Bank Bailouts - Tell Me Again What the Point Was?

Yes, the government should have done something:

My plan: Sieze the irresponsibly run banks, fire the bozos, and liquidate them (the banks, not the bozos) in open-market sales to responsible, safe banks.
Cost to taxpayers: a million in Fed overtime pay.

Chosen plan: $12 Trillion direct bailout, $250 Trillion in guarantees (and yes, I do understand why that is actually a good idea; but it was totally over-the-top), 50% depreciation of the dollar just to cover debts, eventual refusal of anybody with a brain to buy Treasuries, loss of international trust (ask Geither what Chinese students think of us now), rewarding stupid, risky behavior with the tax dollars of working people + removal of accountability from the executive management who did it, attempting reinstatement of housing speculation, subjecting the Fed to political whims, and creation of more overlapping regulatory offices that still will not understand what they are regulating.
Brilliant! How could this be wrong???

In fact, just standing by and letting it go to blazes would have allowed better, safer banks to buy the good remnants for pennies on the dollar. No toxic assets need to have been absorbed by the working guy; they would have been part of the sale.

But if you think that buying toxic assets is a good idea, then I have a bunch to sell you.


On Jul 28 04:36 PM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Trane 250 posted the comment that I was going to post. The idea that the government should simply stand by and let the financial sector go to blazes is dumber than stupid.

Expect Housing Prices to Continue to Rise

I'm not going to point out SEASONAL variances from people relocating while school is out, or the fact that the miniscule numbers are a sidewalk bounce from the top of a downtown (REIT-owned, CMBS-traded) tower... That would be low-hanging fruit.

The telling detail about perspective is from HunterGVL. GVL is the common abbreviation for Greenville, SC. The only other SA poster from the same town is a real estate agent.

"Hunter" is expecting and prepared for the worst.
The realtor says demand for housing is booming. From 2002-2006, the number of new real estate licensees in SC increased an average of 45.3% annually. Sort of like lawyers creating injustice where there is none, reality gets distorted.

But then, has a realtor ever admitted real-ity?