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31October

31October
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  • Ensco Plc: Complete Fleet Status Analysis On March 16, 2015 [View article]
    You do NOT want filthy politicians to regulate output.
    Every regulation or law they pass exists support their cronies and limit competition. They would kill small company output while buying stock in the old corporation who got protection. (Our healthcare law is a fine example of "helping" the people: We end up with increased costs after the election-year improvement, and the same congressmen who voted for regulation own stock in the insurance companies who paid to be regulated.)
    Let the shale companies produce all they can. If they drive themselves out of business, and the banks who made risky loans to them suffer, then there will be a long-term change in how speculative drilling is done. As long as there is transparency, the market will regulate itself. But if Congress got involved, there would be maybe 4 megacorp oil companies in the USA enriching politicians in DC.
    Keep those slimy, filthy, bribe-taking, corrupt, pigs out of oil. They contaminate everything they touch. We do not need more laws. http://wapo.st/1GX2mDf
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco Plc: Complete Fleet Status Analysis On March 16, 2015 [View article]
    This is a dismal assessment, and I respect the fact that you listed out the types of rigs and why they face different problems.
    My wild speculation is that the 14 jackups will not be mostly cold-stacked, but that most will get short-term contracts at horrible rates. They are simpler and have a lower breakeven price. ESV might want to keep them utilized and quickly available in the unlikely event of higher crude prices. But this just a guess; I don't know how much time & money it takes to reactivate cold-stacked jackups.
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Drillers As Buyout Targets [View article]
    Mr. Alekhine clearly read it and comprehended what was written.
    Google found 110 articles written about SDRL and RIG's dividend suspension and cut since 01 November 2014, dozens on Seeking Alpha alone. http://bit.ly/1FsqFee The author wrote, "This past December there was no dividend, so it appears the dividend has been at least temporarily suspended," and "Although the dividend does not appear to have been suspended yet, it also does not appear to be sustainable."
    Well, DUH... Sherlock Holmes has nothing on this guy.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Would Buy Ensco Now [View article]
    Show us your projected cash flow statement that shows when ESV will "start the bankruptcy plans" prior to their "demise."
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's 'Real' China Problem [View article]
    It cannot substitute for lithium, it is a small component of lithium-based batteries.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Would Buy Ensco Now [View article]
    http://bit.ly/18pYgYI
    I agree that things could get much worse, but I bid low yesterday. This looks like a good entry point.
    Mar 7, 2015. 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill says it's bracing for two more years of rig market pain [View news story]
    Supply & demand and currency pressure should keep crude prices down for a while. Because oil companies know that drillers are in a bad position, they will renegotiate for very low dayrates. This has already happened with Maersk. Drillers who need a higher breakeven will be pinched. SDRL has more drillships, which need a higher crude price to break even. Drillers with high fixed costs (debt payments) will be pinched. SDRL has a ton of debt. The oil companies know that in the case Seadrill's high fixed costs, keeping assets utilized is everything, which means that SDRL has to accept whatever rates it gets. They have said that they will accept renegotiations. The oil majors will play hardball with all drillers, most of whom have safer balance sheets. SDRL a big payment due this October. When SDRL trades below its 200 day MA, is under 100 day CCI, is down worse than RIG & ESV, and oil supply is pinched because other drillers have cold-stacked, then is the time to buy. I could be wrong, but I expect SDRL to go down pretty hard by October-December. It might buy a bankrupted PACD, and the acquiring company often goes down on news. I will not speculate on what the price will be this fall, other than less than what it is now.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile beats by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    There is evidence that you are right about plans for Nevada http://bit.ly/1Mb0omk, but Humbolt County mines would have to be completely upgraded, plus Nevada doesn't have cobalt, plus American production would be more expensive. The Silver Peaks lithium operation is being bought by ALB, but I still see SQM as the main supplier initially.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco - Excellent Operational Metrics Mask A Weaker Fleet [View article]
    Jackups may have lower dayrates & margins, but they also have a lower breakeven point, which is why I like ESV for 2015-2016.
    Supply & demand plus currency pressure should keep crude prices down for a while, and the oil majors know it. Because oil companies know that drillers are in a bad position, they will renegotiate for very low dayrates. The drillers with lower breakeven and lower fixed debt payments (and customer satisfaction) are the drillers that will survive.
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile beats by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    SQM, ROC, (and FMC in Argentina) are the lower-cost, higher-volume suppliers, and Chilean lithium has been in steady supply since 1996. I have a hard time imagining anybody but SQM being the primary supplier. But I am adding the etf LIT on dips (commission-free). In addition to SQM, LIT also has ALB and a few others as components.
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco - Excellent Operational Metrics Mask A Weaker Fleet [View article]
    As long as they wait till PACD is bankrupt.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Amazing SUV Factory: Review And Valuation Vs. Tesla [View article]
    You just wrote the basis for a master's thesis on monetizing the debt under conditions of declining current account in an economy with a fiat-credit currency, but I digress.
    There is no reason for a country with a trade surplus to buy American. It was true with Japan, now it is true with China. Even if the people of those nations wanted to buy American (they mostly don't, plus the American brands they buy are mostly domestically manufactured), their governments have hurdles to actual free trade. There is no incentive for a country with a trade surplus to buy American. Decreased productivity and workforce participation is not good for long-term health.
    We need more people to be employed & producing. Trade is great when both sides benefit. When one country has a devaluing currency combined with a trade imbalance & low velocity of money which delay inflation... not so great.
    Mar 4, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Amazing SUV Factory: Review And Valuation Vs. Tesla [View article]
    The Corvette is enough to draw a Porsche guy like me in. All the power, none of the oil leaks... yes, yes!
    Mar 3, 2015. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Amazing SUV Factory: Review And Valuation Vs. Tesla [View article]
    "For every dollar you spend buying a "foreign" product, they now have one more product with which to buy some other American product."
    How do you prove that every dollar that goes to a foreign nation's economy is used to buy something exported from the USA?
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Amazing SUV Factory: Review And Valuation Vs. Tesla [View article]
    My father and many of my customers drive exclusively GM, because of their experiences with 400K-mile drivetrains. A dashboard rattle isn't enough to offset the security of knowing you will make a cross-country trip without any mechanical failures... The Impala I borrowed to drive from the east coast to California and back again was trouble-free, nicer than how I remember Chevys, and got good fuel economy.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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