Seeking Alpha

31October

31October
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 31October's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Understanding Seadrill's Forward Financial Needs [View article]
    Daedalus, two of the best articles on Seeking Alpha look at exactly those things.
    DCF value: http://seekingalpha.co... and
    Debt & obligations: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 2, 2015. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Seadrill's Forward Financial Needs [View article]
    No mention of West Polaris? $108M will be paid to SFL, plus SDRL pays off the $348M balance on the loan, so total cash will be reduced $456M, but SDRL also saves $70 million in leasing costs.
    Jan 2, 2015. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Audi's Hybrid Q7 Cause Tesla's Model X Backlog To Evaporate? [View article]
    The people who would spend $136K for a Tesla do so to say that they did so. They could also afford a Q7 PHEV for longer trips. The vehicles are complimentary, not competitive.
    Jan 1, 2015. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Limited: Complete Fleet Status As Of December 30 After Acquisition Of The West Polaris [View article]
    If I understand, then $108M went to SFL, and SDRL paid off the $348M balance on the loan, so total cash declined $456M.
    I was initially alarmed at paying out ANY cash heading toward the 2016 crunch, but $456M cost/$239M contract rate works out to 1.9 years to break even... Not bad.
    Jan 1, 2015. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. opens door to condensate exports [View news story]
    Desperation leads to extremism and aggression, not logical peace planning.
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    "Having worked for government, industry and consulting I will offer that the real problem is government incompetency and not the industry."
    YEP. Having worked for the federal, state, and county governments, and for the private sector, I would add that the further away the level of government gets from people, the less accountable and more horrific the incompetency gets.
    Dec 30, 2014. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    Saratogahawk "I would like to see Europe and Japan emerge from their recessions and to see the US return to historic post-recession recovery rates."
    The ECB and BOJ are in a race to devalue their currencies (instead of real change) to recover. The decline in yen & euro will make the dollar stronger, and therefore oil, priced in dollars, cheaper... That is one of the reasons I think oil could be cheap longer than last time.
    Dec 30, 2014. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill exercises option to purchase West Polaris [View news story]
    Oh, I've looked- The majority of what I own is oil-related, and I expect my descendants to be quite wealthy. The LONG-term trend is my friend. But the IEA recently reduced the estimated growth rate in demand, and domestic supply from nontraditional has been increasing. http://bit.ly/1B2a1Q5 The Saudis have refused to cut production until May at the earliest, and they have made statements about eliminating weaker OPEC members, that Russia does not deserve market share, and the damaging of American shale competition. Eventually, cuts in capital expenditures & exploration will crimp supply and cause a price spike, but not nearly yet.
    The ECB and BOJ have decided to devalue their currencies as hard and fast as possible, the ruble has collapsed, so the US dollar actually seems to be stronger (everything is relative), and that trend will also likely continue for a while...
    I see nothing that would make this drop in oil prices a v-shaped blip, other than some sort of major geo-political supply disruption.
    Dec 30, 2014. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill exercises option to purchase West Polaris [View news story]
    If there were a clear change in the supply-demand chart of crude, I would agree. But SDRL has big 2016 expenses coming, and they should batten down the hatches until there is an uptrend in oil prices.
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    Are they insane? There has been no clear catalyst to cause sustained higher oil prices.
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    Page 6: http://bit.ly/1CQrI4B
    (Jackups do have lower breakeven rates.)
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    According to Seadrill, their cash-flow breakeven is $359,000 per day for floaters. Their last two contracts were signed at $500,000 per day with PBR. Earnings may be declining, but utilization can be more important during bad years.
    Dec 29, 2014. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    This article shows the correct way to compile and present information. 90% of Seadrill prognosticators should be insecure and jealous of Mr. Wan's analysis.
    (I looked at Wan's bio- He is still a grad student... Not bad! I was still Keynesing at his age.)
    Dec 29, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Closer Look At Seadrill's Debt [View article]
    There will be no contract cancellations (I assume that is what "rig cancellations" meant that could hurt SDRL. The oil major who contracted with them would pay a cash penalty for breaking the contract: SDRL would have less revenue, but only idling expenses.
    Seadrill is not in danger until 2016. If oil prices go lower and stay there long enough, SDRL could be forced to accept money-losing contract rates to reduce losses.
    Dec 29, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan approves $29B stimulus package [View news story]
    Only politicians could say, "Quintupling or debt/GDP with waste, printing, and 'stimulus' has failed for an entire generation, so we'd better increase it."
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:15 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
811 Comments
1,429 Likes