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just sayin'

just sayin'
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  • Alcoa: Enough Selling Already [View article]
    Not very scientific. In the 12's they have retraced about 50% from recent high near 18 from recent low near 8. They have spent relatively little time below 10 in the past 5 years. Over the past several years we have seen steady change by closing underperforming assets and expanding/building more all the while sticking to improving operating efficiencies and cash flow. The company has to have more potential to generate profits than before. If we get back to oversupply of aluminum it will take longer for me to be right. None of this factors in any changes due to the change in energy prices which I presume is a tail wind.
    Dec 17, 2014. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: Enough Selling Already [View article]
    Price still in no mans land here in my opinion. I am a little sad AA corrected but as a long time shareholder this is not a big surprise. When the shares get cheaper I'll start adding. I would be very interested at $10 but will probably start adding around $12.
    Dec 17, 2014. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Are You Ready For The Next Move To The Upside? [View article]
    In this case there might have been some overhang based on bad decisions from the prior management that was not fully baked into the share price. Nothing to see here. Moving right along...
    Dec 14, 2014. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport's Oil Purchases Seem Like A Mistake [View article]
    While it seems clear FCX overpaid for these assets, the diversification strategy is not that different from what BHP or RIO is doing. In the long term the overpayment will work itself out and the cronies that were on the FCX and McMoran boards will get away with it. I do not believe FCX is not going out of business as a result of this mistake though it will create opportunities for investors as the disdain for this approach gets baked into the share price. Eventually the commodity prices will turn to their favor once again.
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Are You Ready For The Next Move To The Upside? [View article]
    I am long BAC (about 6% of my portfolio) and I have some calls and put spreads. The shares are up 201% since I bought them. The calls come up in January and it looks like the $17 calls are going to be good. I also have some $20 and $22 calls which are longshots at best right now - I'm hoping you are right and we get a big boost off earnings! The put spread is Jan 2015 15-10 and so that looks like a high probability payoff. Bought all these when they were still leaps. Certainly thought the legal issues would have cleared up and interest rate increases would be priced in by January so the shares would be higher by now. The options are a very small part of my portfolio as I get my "sea legs" in that area.

    My point is that while it seems clear that BAC will return to similar valuation to its peers in the sector it is less clear if something macro economic will negatively impact near term growth and share price (in 2015). Weakness in global economic growth creeping into the US is one possibility. Sometimes the catalysts take longer to arrive than is expected.

    Also I can't really agree that BAC is one of the "most hated" stocks it is up 13% YTD. Try owning FCX or RIG and a host of others sporting significant losses in 2014. Unscientifically the investor hate for BAC is about 80-90% done IMO.
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally in utility stocks "getting long in the teeth" [View news story]
    As bond yields start to rise I could see some pressure on this stock but the signal is not strong enough to make me want to sell at this time. When it went under $67 in October I should have added but I was asleep at the switch.
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bullish Case For Cliffs Natural Resources [View article]
    Looking at BHP and RIO I see diversified businesses not just pure iron ore play. Both produce copper, aluminum, uranium and other things. Hard to compare that apples to apples.
    Dec 6, 2014. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Cliffs To Terminate The Common Stock Dividend [View article]
    Since LG is being aggressive and making moves I expect that all is not as dire as it seems or the dividend would already be gone. On the call he said he would recommend to the board that the dividend continues. My best guess is they will take damage but survive and eventually return to prosperity. If that damage includes suspending the dividend so be it. At this point who is really here for the dividend?
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Citigroup Ever Become A Buy? [View article]
    Pretty sure it was a buy in the past. My shares are up 90%. Big problems take a long time to clean up. There is still room for it to move up.
    Dec 4, 2014. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural pulls notes tender offer [View news story]
    Apparently a little extra $ from selling some coal assets goes a long way toward not doing this deal. Maybe?
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural +6% as catalysts take center stage [View news story]
    It took a bigger hit on Monday so we are still not back to Friday levels. Lots more work to do. If you believe in LG you will continue if not this changes nothing.
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Crashes As Commodities Tumble: Here's The Real Impact [View article]
    Interesting and helpful. If you don't mind I'll copy your spreadsheet approach. Since I just added on 11/6 at 27.65 I plan to look for a lower price to add more.
    Dec 1, 2014. 07:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources - The Best Laid Plans Of Mice And Men [View article]
    OK I missed something here are you saying Casablanca has a boatload of bonds they are turning in as part of this program?
    Nov 29, 2014. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bullish Case For Cliffs Natural Resources [View article]
    Looking at CLF as domestic producer of iron ore with over 50% of the market, I am trying to determine a reasonable price/sales ratio. I suppose I could look at historical records for CLF but I wonder who has a comparable business to compare against. Any thoughts on this? I'm thinking it should be 1 or higher when CLF gets healthy again.
    Nov 27, 2014. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bullish Case For Cliffs Natural Resources [View article]
    I was thinking the same thing - Mr. Goncalves playing a little high stakes poker! Regardless of outcome I like the deadline/shutdown play.
    Nov 27, 2014. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment