just sayin'

just sayin'
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  • Retirement Frontline: Cash Is Trash Unless You Invest It To Produce More Income  [View article]
    Kudos on the timing. I started earlier and still kept about 20% in.

    One man's trash is another man's treasure. And I'll be using my treasure to buy equities when there is pain in the markets. just sayin'
    Feb 8, 2016. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources target cut to $1 at Deutsche Bank  [View news story]
    Like "downside risks to its base case iron ore outlook and unsustainable debt levels" was not part of the assessment when the price was set at $1.50?
    Feb 6, 2016. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Will Be 2016's Top Performer  [View article]
    Top performer? Like the top performing stock of 2016? I think MCD is a solid company but can't see how it will be the top performer. A directional change in commodity prices could send several companies soaring. Very hard for a big company to move the need that much.
    Feb 5, 2016. 12:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Short The Golden Arches  [View article]
    With $14 billion and change going back to shareholders in 2016, it will be hard to get the share price to drop significantly unless we get some other surprises.
    Feb 4, 2016. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: Don't Be Fearful  [View article]
    C is not "best of breed" is it? Is it possible that in a bear market (or perceived bear market) that investors are raising cash, and C is not making the cut? With that attitude any type of mixed news sends people to the exits.

    And how are they doing YTD vs other big banks? Is it possible the perception that rising interest rates are going to help banks is dying also?
    Jan 17, 2016. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ's Lahart: This isn't 2008  [View news story]
    We've been living in the QE insulated environment so long many forget what volatility feels and looks like. Time will tell if 2016 will test mettle like 2008/2009. It has a chance.
    Jan 16, 2016. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Capitulation?  [View article]
    Thank you for a sane assessment of the current situation for FCX. The end is not imminent and just saying "BK" does not mean it is. Want to see a company near the edge - check out CLF and they are not bankrupt yet.

    FCX said in October they were planning to raise another $800m by selling shares. Any idea if this recent heavy volume is related to that?
    Jan 12, 2016. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Of Freeport-McMoRan  [View article]
    I'm thinking commodity prices move a lot with supply and demand. And when the prices get high on commodity X many people say "it will keep going up forever because of (insert idea here)." In reality though businesses find ways to produce more of commodity X. At the other end when there is too much commodity X many proclaim doom to all who mine or produce commodity X. Reality is that when prices drop the smaller players get squeezed out as they lack the resources to survive in the trough of the cycle. Rest assured it is not different this time. Now FCX made a bad decision when it made these oil purchases, and it certainly looks like someone's judgment was not aligned with the well being of FCX. Those businesses were struggling or they would not have needed to be acquired. They need to make the oil business cash flow positive or sell it for the best they can get. Yes it will hurt. This company has survived large piles of debt before, and they can do it again. Eventually copper supply/demand will switch over to favor the producers, regardless of what happens in China. I would not expect any miracles in 2016 though. Right now there is not much to attract shareholders - weak pricing, extra debt, no dividend, and a long path to better times. If you have a lot of patience and believe this company can unbury itself and commodity prices will not stay down forever, FCX could be a fit for your speculative portfolio. Fasten your seat belts!
    Jan 11, 2016. 10:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regardless Of Earnings, Here Is Why I Would Avoid Alcoa And Go Long Nucor  [View article]
    Demand for aluminum is increasing not decreasing so I fail to see how steel wins out over aluminum. No manufacturers are going to replace the aluminum parts with steel parts, particularly with ample supply of aluminum production keeping costs down. Airplanes are not adding steel parts either. And I'm not seeing any steel beverage cans popping up either.

    I do not know Nucor so I can't say whether it is a better business than Alcoa, but I believe the competition for each comes from others that make similar commodities and products.
    Jan 10, 2016. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China, The End Of History And The Last Great Commodities Boom  [View article]
    I am failing to understand how a country that has over 4x the population of the USA and almost the same land area could be considered done with big growth when their economy is smaller. When the growth is "done" shouldn't the economy be at least 2x or 3x bigger than USA? Somehow they have 100 million or so less cars than in USA? http://on.wsj.com/1Rh72Nk
    Jan 10, 2016. 08:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Fridays: The Stock Market Is Lying  [View article]
    Maybe the market was lying before, when it was intoxicated with large amounts of QE and now that the effect is wearing off the truth is coming out. Time will tell if this is a little hangover or full blown withdrawal
    Jan 8, 2016. 11:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Carl Icahn Get A Lemon With His Pep Boys Purchase?  [View article]
    I think he thought he could get Bridgestone to pay up, but they quit the bidding game. High stakes poker.
    Jan 3, 2016. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For 2016: Despite The Near-Term Headwinds, The Bull Market Isn't Over And The S&P 500 Will Set New Highs In 2016  [View article]
    Interesting read. I want to believe we are headed higher but I can't. I see the Fed continuing their recent policy of raising rates, which will keep the dollar strong. I see this affecting our exports in a negative way, and keeping commodity prices down for us (including gold). I could be way off but I think the cost of the strong dollar is not enough to offset the commodity prices. And the Fed is going against the other major banks right now.

    I also think it is hard to predict how the slow unwinding of Fed perpetual easing policy is going to affect the overall market. I have my doubts the Fed is going to swoop in prop up the market as there is no imminent financial crisis this time.

    And what about China? Can't ignore the second largest economy. Even if they stay positive GDP growth, if the rate is a lot lower than past it will have an affect on world economy.

    What about margin debt? It's been a few months since I read it was at record levels, but I've heard nothing that it has concerned so that is a big concern.

    I'm just over 25% in equities right now. That amount represents more than my entire portfolio was worth in March of 2009. I got killed by the financial crisis and dot-com bust and I'm not going there again. If I'm wrong worst case is I make less money.

    I'm getting interested at 20% below current levels.
    Jan 3, 2016. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa a top idea for 2016 ahead of split, analyst says  [View news story]
    It's in the Q3 results presentation material - page 24 :"Current intent: Debt of Alcoa would be retained by the Value - Add Company"

    Jan 3, 2016. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: A Recommended Short  [View article]
    That is a good catch.

    It is interesting to consider that someone would join a site like this to try to affect the overall market for a specific equity.
    Jan 2, 2016. 03:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment