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just sayin'

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  • Freeport-McMoRan: Bullish View Maintained For The Long Term [View article]
    FWIW I'm on the long side also - one of my largest holdings at this time. I would like to put more in which led me to my closing question. I am quite sure the current management can navigate the waters and stay afloat.

    Note: item #2 references oil - driving down oil prices
    Nov 20 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Bullish View Maintained For The Long Term [View article]
    FCX has problems:
    1) Stronger dollar is one of many factors affecting copper. I expect more weakness.
    2) Stronger dollar along with a little excess supply driving down prices.
    3) People don't like unpredictable management. Getting back to oil and gas MIGHT have soured some people on this stock. Having to sell copper assets to pay down debt from expensive oil and gas acquisitions because, surprise, oil and copper prices did not just keep going up is not lending much credibility either. Regardless of the mgt comments on the last call, I have concern if the profits shrink they will also cut the dividend without telegraphing it properly as past behavior is indicative of future behavior.

    So they are in equity purgatory here for a while until this blows over. Being on the discount rack though begs the question of how far can they be marked down?
    Nov 19 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Bullish View Maintained For The Long Term [View article]
    What does meaningfully higher mean to you? $40, $50, $60?
    Nov 19 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Compelling Strategy Emerging From Twitter Yet [View article]
    I agree with the assessment of the current situation. However, does anyone doubt that the right visionary leadership could turn this into a money making machine?
    Nov 19 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zargon Oil And Gas Is In The Bargain Bin And Ready To Take Off [View article]
    Well the share price on my small position is down 34%. I have read all the recent material ZARFF has published and understand what I am betting on much better. Six months of dividends does take some of the edge off but this one is testing my resolve. By my rough math it looks like phases 1 and 2 at Little Bow will cost $25/barrel for the solution used in the ASP process. Am I reading this right?
    Nov 13 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do You Have The Patience To Be A Successful Value Investor? [View article]
    This article covers important points about what to look for, when to acquire it and how to stay the course. What about exit strategy? Do you plan to hold Cognizant forever? Clearly there must be an exit strategy. Once the market is in love with the stock and analysts are all upgrading it trying to eke out that last 10% it is time to sell and find another beat up value stock at the bottom of the pile!
    Nov 9 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Millenials Aren't The Problem [View article]
    Interesting perspective but I think the picture you have painted is a little dire.

    Have you been to McDonalds or Chipotle? Many people will continue to go to MCD because they like what is offered at the prices offered. If they start messing with the menu too much they risk losing some of the regulars - and there are a LOT of them. Based on my experience with Chipotle and MCD I think you can get more value for your money at MCD.

    If MCD is in such dire straits I have to wonder why the stock is not down further like 50%
    Nov 7 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Freeport-McMoRan Is A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
    FCX management reported on the last call they have hedged oil sales through 2015 so that should not impact earnings until 2016. I expect the industry will cut back on production to put in a reasonable floor in prices. I hope FCX can make money on their oil at that floor price.

    On the same call FCX management made comments indicating the dividend was secure however they did back off their debt targets.

    I think the oil and gas play came in beacuse they were generating so much cash and had just paid off the Phelps-Dodge acquisition. They needed something to do with the money. To me it looks like they bought housing right before the financial crisis hit. Now they are selling things because the profits are not rolling in like planned. Oops. With that said I think they can navigate these waters but the whole dividend thing could get reduced or cancelled just as easily. I do not feel enough transparency coming from this management team to be confident what they are going to do.

    There are copper makers needing $2.80/lb copper to break even. Any sustained amount of time at or below that level will drive out the weak players and help bring supply/demand into balance.

    Based on what I read gold prices are going lower not higher so I disagree with your assessment there. As equities continue to outperform and fear continues to subside gold is going to drop. It has to. When we reach max apathy toward gold tends to be right near equity market tops which I think is still a ways off in this cycle.

    With all that, I am long with covered calls and have a long term put spread on as I think FCX will not be spending much time below $23.
    Nov 5 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. Q3 2014 Earnings [View article]
    What about management's backtracking on debt targets? What about selling assets to cover the debt obligations? This all feels like "whoops" we are surprised the prices of all our products went down and now we have to sell assets to pay down this huge debt we took overpaying for oil assets.

    I know this is old news but selling copper assets seems like a BAD idea and in even older news buying oil assets seems like a BAD idea. I expect they can hold the ship together and pay the dividend but the concept of adding shareholder value seems distant.
    Oct 29 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - The Latest Member Of The Junk Bond Club [View article]
    Bond newbie question: I am looking for an easy way to get all CUSIP #s for a publicly traded company. I'm wondering how you did it. Thanks
    Oct 19 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcoa Beats, Next Stop $18.50 [View article]
    GAAP earnings were 12 cents. This is what they do with some frequency. There is most always some one-time charge due to curtailments, accidents, plant closing. So I'm curious how you can report their rosy earnings number without the standard number?

    I sold half my stake at $16.20 prior to earnings and if it gets to $18.50 I will probably sell the rest. I think the company is well run but the valuation is getting a bit high for my liking.
    Oct 9 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Where Is The Stock Headed? [View article]
    Thanks for confirming my thoughts on this matter. This is one of the factors that puts the yield up so high. If there were no risk I believe the yield would be much lower.
    Jul 29 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Where Is The Stock Headed? [View article]
    I need to do some homework on whether the margins are better on the oil or the LNG. I really don't know this business well enough yet.
    Apr 27 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Where Is The Stock Headed? [View article]
    Reading the recent 10-K SEC filing I believe there is some risk to production if more natural gas is extracted due to reduced pressure. Maybe that is too far in the future to be a concern?
    Apr 27 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Big Risk? Big Reward! [View article]
    If copper drops in 1/2 it would be around $1.55-1.60/lb. It appears FCX would be losing money at all the mines except Tenke. So would just about every one else I would guess. Wouldn't they stop making copper?
    Apr 26 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment