5 Things To Consider After Freeport-McMoRan's Quarterly Results [View article]
You may recall huge disruptions at Grasberg last year so the increase is returning to normal levels.
FCX has been generating cash and paid down the Phelps Dodge acquisition quite quickly. If you look at the presentation with the last quarterly conference call you will see the timetable for the current acquisitions. It seemed reasonable to me. They were able to borrow $10b at 3.1%!
If the deal falls apart the share prices should go back up in the near term. If it stay together the prices will go up longer term. I'm in and will be looking to accumulate.
The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
Copper prices are affected by supply and demand and they are also affected by the value of the currency. I think the end of the drop in dollar value is affecting commodity values. Oil, gold and copper are all down vs. the dollar. That is what is affect copper value.
Apparently it's time for management to go, and people with lots of money agree. Glad I did not dump it all in disgust this morning. I plan to reduce my position at this time.
No question and answer session - really? I have owned CWH for at least 10 years but I think it's time to go. Too much dilution, too many spin offs. Just buy good properties and rent them. I thought the Hawaii and Australia ideas were good but you need to stick with it instead of spinning it off. Not even dividend plays are absolutes in investing.
Cash Hoards On The Sidelines And The Great Rotation: Old Myths Meet A New Reality [View article]
We all know supply and demand affects the prices of specific equities. I feel like this concept is completely missing from this article. Since the money and the equities are all priced in dollars, the change in dollar value affects both the money and the equity values equally. Supply and demand for equities affect the value of equities.
Is It Time To Consider Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
I like FCX management and I also think the stock is undervalued. Shortly after the acquisition I went long FCX.
Clearly there are reasons they trade at a discount which you do not specify.
1) It is less of a pure copper play than before 2) They still have risk at the Indonesian mine (strikes/nationalization)
Subjective but still plausible: 3) They paid too much for the acquired companies 4) Inconsistency in delivering profits due to geological and other irregularities at their mines. Having not followed SCCO I can't tell if their ability to produce is more or less consistent than FCX. Maybe someone could elaborate on this. 5) Possible legal action due to the acquisition could cost money. 6) This management team is unpredictable - what else are they planning to buy that I don't know about
BTW I hope you are right I'd love to see it get to $48, but I think it'll take time to shed some of these reasons before it can go there
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
Looks like 210 is in the lead right now. Opened small stake in near the money calls today. Should have listened to my own analysis and placed bets for both directions.
Alcoa - Dragon Hurting Both Demand And Supply [View article]
FCX got hit by like 20% when it announced the purchase of the oil assets MMR and Plains Exploration in order to diversify. Apparently diversifying was bad for them, yet not diversifying is bad for Alcoa.
Furthermore for quite some time (years) I have heard discussion about how China cannot keep up this growth rate. You offer no explanation why it will slow.
I believe Alcoa is a tough stock to own because there is oversupply in aluminum production capability and this will keep the stock price down. There are ways it could improve. Making aluminum is a very energy intensive activity and any substantial increase in the cost of power could cut supply. Any consolidation in the industry could also cut supply. This has happened before in other industries (steel comes to mind). Furthermore in our world of diminishing currency values apparently some people are holding aluminum as a hedge. As currencies continue to drop against commodities I expect this to continue. Any of these factors could help the cost of the commodity and help Alcoa.
Conversely the commodity could get cheaper if China creates more power plants thereby lowering the cost of energy.
Netflix (NFLX +2.9%) trades higher as the first season of David Fincher's House of Cards (all 13 episodes) premieres on its site and apps to largely favorable reviews. In an effort to stoke interest, Netflix is making the first episode available for free to non-subscribers for a month. (previous) [View news story]
It ended the day down slightly against a strong tape. Just sayin'
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
Yes but they only reported 13 cents a share, not 2.22. I'm missing where that money went. Actually I am not - it went into growing the company. the growth is what fetched the premium so if they don't invest there is no growth and a 21 P/E is too high. I'm not sure that is a good metric to use.
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
It felt overbought at $145 yesterday. So $168 today seems even more ridiculous. The premium for the puts is increasing so there is skepticism that it can hold here. I opened a small stake in near the money puts yesterday. It's going to 210 or 110 not sure which.
Freeport-McMoRan's (FCX) $9B deal to buy two energy companies has prompted the unusual step from shareholders of the acquiring company to go after their own directors for overpaying; more typical are class actions from shareholders of target companies who say the purchase price is too low. Six FCX directors also on MMR's board will reap $131M for their stock in near-bankrupt MMR, according to lawsuits. [View news story]
As they mentioned on the Q4 earnings conference call there was an independent board formed to value the acquisitions. If this is legitimate then this lawsuit is not going to get too far. If there are any gaps the lawyers will be sure to find them so they get their cut, and shareholders will get their $.23 per share.
5 Things To Consider After Freeport-McMoRan's Quarterly Results [View article]
5 Things To Consider After Freeport-McMoRan's Quarterly Results [View article]
FCX has been generating cash and paid down the Phelps Dodge acquisition quite quickly. If you look at the presentation with the last quarterly conference call you will see the timetable for the current acquisitions. It seemed reasonable to me. They were able to borrow $10b at 3.1%!
If the deal falls apart the share prices should go back up in the near term. If it stay together the prices will go up longer term. I'm in and will be looking to accumulate.
The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
CommonWealth REIT Management Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
CommonWealth REIT Management Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Why Bank Of America Is Overvalued [View article]
Cash Hoards On The Sidelines And The Great Rotation: Old Myths Meet A New Reality [View article]
Is It Time To Consider Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
Clearly there are reasons they trade at a discount which you do not specify.
1) It is less of a pure copper play than before
2) They still have risk at the Indonesian mine (strikes/nationalization)
Subjective but still plausible:
3) They paid too much for the acquired companies
4) Inconsistency in delivering profits due to geological and other irregularities at their mines. Having not followed SCCO I can't tell if their ability to produce is more or less consistent than FCX. Maybe someone could elaborate on this.
5) Possible legal action due to the acquisition could cost money.
6) This management team is unpredictable - what else are they planning to buy that I don't know about
BTW I hope you are right I'd love to see it get to $48, but I think it'll take time to shed some of these reasons before it can go there
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
Alcoa - Dragon Hurting Both Demand And Supply [View article]
Furthermore for quite some time (years) I have heard discussion about how China cannot keep up this growth rate. You offer no explanation why it will slow.
I believe Alcoa is a tough stock to own because there is oversupply in aluminum production capability and this will keep the stock price down. There are ways it could improve. Making aluminum is a very energy intensive activity and any substantial increase in the cost of power could cut supply. Any consolidation in the industry could also cut supply. This has happened before in other industries (steel comes to mind). Furthermore in our world of diminishing currency values apparently some people are holding aluminum as a hedge. As currencies continue to drop against commodities I expect this to continue. Any of these factors could help the cost of the commodity and help Alcoa.
Conversely the commodity could get cheaper if China creates more power plants thereby lowering the cost of energy.
Netflix (NFLX +2.9%) trades higher as the first season of David Fincher's House of Cards (all 13 episodes) premieres on its site and apps to largely favorable reviews. In an effort to stoke interest, Netflix is making the first episode available for free to non-subscribers for a month. (previous) [View news story]
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
5 Reasons To Short Netflix Right Now [View article]
Freeport-McMoRan's (FCX) $9B deal to buy two energy companies has prompted the unusual step from shareholders of the acquiring company to go after their own directors for overpaying; more typical are class actions from shareholders of target companies who say the purchase price is too low. Six FCX directors also on MMR's board will reap $131M for their stock in near-bankrupt MMR, according to lawsuits. [View news story]