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View thedragonsteamboat's Comments
Apple Faces The Ever-Present 'Then What' Problem
There is no doubt that there is a sell on the news phenomenon. But that may or not happen in this case and it definitely doesn't mean apple stock will cease from going up. What you are comparing is two different events and comparing apples to oranges. When a company IPOs, company A that owned company B no longer "directly" reaps the benefits of company B that IPO'd. Shareholders have the option to exit company A and others have the option to purchase outright stock in company B. Shareholders will view it as no more growth in company A and the stock will lag even tho the company may or may not still own shares in company B, hence the what now phenomenon.
In apples case, the announcement will happen but the growth in revenue and profit will still increase quarter after quarter and for years to come. Millions are entering China's middle class every year with there 7% rate of growth. Getting a larger piece of that market is a great thing longer term. I'm not saying the stock won't lag after the announcement, it may or may not, I don't know how much expectation is built into the stock. But any declines should be short term, especially with quarterly report coming up.
Dec 12, 2013. 05:30 PM
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BAML: Apple/China Mobile hopes too high
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Analysts are going to provide conservative estimates when it comes to apple. A tough market, competition in the mobile industry and bears surrounding the name makes it easier to be negative or at best incrementally positive about any upside in revenue or earnings. When people talk about sentiment, thats what we see here with the analysts. My take on chl deal. The 30m plus existing iphone users on the network is a positive. The 4g rollout will mean these users would love to upgrade to new phones. Whether that is 10m that do it this year or 30m that do it over the next three years, it's the same number. Of the remaining 630m users, apple can capture their fair share of the market. Let's be conservative and say only 10%. 63m over the next three years (as users switch out of a longer avg term of a contract), that's still 20m plus users a year. Add that to the 10m users a year expected from those already using iPhones, that'll give us a total of 30m a year. Overall penetration will still be about 15%, not unrealistic of apples average market share in developing countries. Plus, if you look at japan and the scenario of pent up demand, we may see initial numbers to be much higher. On a final note, Tim cook was the hired as CEO because of his ability to control operations. For the first time in what seems like a while, apple has caught up with inventory issues and this recent rollout of the iPhone 5s has been a success. The timing of the chl deal is planned and comes at a time when apple and chl is ready for all it's users to take on the newest model of the iPhone. I don't like providing actual estimates, but my opinion is apple will hit on the higher end of that 10-30m estimate of initial users.
Dec 10, 2013. 11:13 AM
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