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Telly Lee

Telly Lee
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  • Buy Under Armour Shirts, Not Shares [View article]
    Henry, don't worry about indian8788. He bought a few shares of UA 2 years ago and he's convinced it can never go down. I may not agree with everything you wrote, but I appreciate the analysis and hope there's more to come.
    Jan 2, 2013. 06:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Under Armour Shirts, Not Shares [View article]
    "In China, Under Armour did not find a partner like Dome. Consequently, the company is forced to slowly open direct to consumers stores in China."

    I'm very curious about the statement above. Are you certain that UA wanted to take the partner route like Japan and opened their own stores as a contingency plan? From the more official statements, I was led to believe that the direct route was intentional from the beginning.
    Dec 27, 2012. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour: Running Out Of Runway [View article]
    The argument that UA is done with international is very misleading as it undoubtedly will be the leading source of growth several years down the road. Realistically, UA sells very little outside of the US, Canada, and through their affiliate in Japan, as opposed to the "61 countries" mentioned. The UA brand has its roots in American Football, which doesn't translate well internationally. Similarly, UA has also relied on its domestic distributors in the past, most of which have not expanded outside North America.

    As UA continues to mature in basketball, soccer, and running, it's brand appeal should catch on quickly on the international stage and redefine the long term source of growth in the company. The products are there, it's more of a question of marketing and distribution.
    Nov 14, 2012. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour: Running Out Of Runway [View article]
    Nike is a much larger brand and while some of its products command very high price points and margins (i.e. the latest LeBron shoe), many of its products are very pedestrian and priced accordingly (i.e. basic cotton t-shirt with logo). While Under Armour's selection has grown substantially over the years, most of its products are still in the upper end in both quality and price.

    Agreed that shorting would be a very dangerous move against UA when they still have a lot of room to grow and have thus far been conservative with their spending.
    Nov 14, 2012. 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark Zuckerberg To Investors: Give Facebook 3 To 5 Years [View article]
    Heartily agree that the 3-5 years comment should be picked apart. That amount of time is 2 lifetimes in the world of tech and Zuckerberg [hopefully] knows it. Digg pretty much went from one of the most popular web portals to worthless in about 2 years. When you have BILLIONS of fresh investor capital at your disposal, it should be making an immediate impact. Even executives in much slower/mature industries would be scrutinized if they tried to put off positive results for 3+ years.
    Sep 12, 2012. 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour FCFF Analysis [View article]
    I can't help but feel large parts of sections 3 and 4 are copied and pasted from many years ago, especially considering the Portnoy article referenced from 2007.

    Years ago, there might have been more question as to whether UA's products are easily replicated, but given their usage by many professional athletes that aren't even sponsored speaks volumes. The industry is competitive for sure, but only a handful of brands are used by professional athletes and UA is solidly within that group.

    The article also is negative about the "We will protect this house" ad campaign... which hasn't been actively used in the past 2 years (the latest is "What's Beautiful", which targets women). Earnings calls have mentioned the revenue generated by the women's line have grown in proportion to total sales over the past few years (I don't remember exact number, but I'm sure it's in call transcripts).
    Sep 11, 2012. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Performance Of Asian Emerging Market Country ETFs Vs. S&P 500 ETF [View article]
    Excess debt? The highest debt to GDP ratio country on that list is the US at 103%. Second highest is India at 68% which is far far behind.
    Aug 17, 2012. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour: An Excellent Short Opportunity? [View article]
    The analysis has some merit in that current valuations seem high, but its foundation is that UA continues to grow and operate at a "business as usual" pace (slowing down over time). The risks for shorts is that UA has been very cautious with their international expansions and has only recently begun to pour money into marketing themselves outside North America (i.e. Tottenham sponsorship). A pop in revenue/earnings from overseas would shatter any existing technical models.

    In contrast, NKE is as global as it gets, thus is unlikely to see any surprises based on new distribution/marketing initiatives. I personally hate the comparison to LULU as it's overall image and profile is more similar to high fashion than any other sports apparel maker.
    Aug 14, 2012. 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chink In Under Armour's Armor [View article]
    Considering that cotton is still a small part of the UA product line up, I would think that it resembles diversification more so than exposure. Consider that all of their competitors (other athletic apparel or casual clothing) have far greater exposure to cotton prices, then if cotton prices were to increase significantly and causes everybody to raise prices, then the appeal of UA's main line of synthetics would increase. If cotton prices decrease, then UA gets part of the benefit like everybody else.
    Jul 27, 2012. 03:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not The Unemployment, Stupid [View article]
    4.7% college grad unemployment is not very high? 2009 and 2010 has been the highest EVER in US history. Avg unemployment for college grads has been roughly half that in the past two decades.
    Jul 9, 2012. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 7 Questions I Want To Ask Groupon Management [View article]
    My apologies, large error on my part there, the I/S section of Marketwatch combined data from two quarters and made it look really bad. Irregardless, the general message stands in that Groupon has generally disappointed compared to 2 years earlier, thus the $6B offer should not be considered a bottom.
    Jul 5, 2012. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 7 Questions I Want To Ask Groupon Management [View article]
    When Google made that offer, Groupon was experiencing massive growth and was the first mover in its field. More recently, their last quarter was a 16% drop in sales in the same period a year before, while still experiencing losses. Groupon Rewards is already chasing down a concept that competitors implemented first, so they've already lost some of their first mover advantage.
    Jul 4, 2012. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zuckerberg Took My Advice And Turned Facebook Around [View article]
    Typo, annualized in my example there would be -13.4% per year.
    Jun 25, 2012. 06:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zuckerberg Took My Advice And Turned Facebook Around [View article]
    Conventional returns would be calculated based on a portfolio basis (even mock portfolio) rather than as individual stocks to prevent selection bias and account for opinion changes. Similarly, return measurements would be stated as "annualized" not "average annual" as is always biased upwards. A stock with -50% returns one year and 50% returns another would have an annualized return of -25% as opposed to an average annual of 0%.
    Jun 25, 2012. 01:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zuckerberg Took My Advice And Turned Facebook Around [View article]
    He didn't question your track record, he was commenting on your ego, which you promptly confirmed with very unconventional measurements for your track record.
    Jun 24, 2012. 01:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment