huskerbob

Ponzi Schemes: FBI Arrests Danny Pang

Buying gold? I guess he was worried about inflation:)

TARP Watch: Riskier, Less Transparent and More Corrupt

So what member of our government is to be held responsible? Looking back through the long history of government blundering, the answer will be: no one.
Whatever. I doubt Treasury's negotiations with GS were too stressful.

Will Deficit Stimulus Spending Help or Hurt Economic Recovery?

The author is glossing over the fact that we are getting diminishing returns. He failed to point out the increasing amount of debt required to produce a dollar of GDP, roughly doubling over the last 50 years. And the decreasingly effective deficit spending by the government will of course be even more ineffective due to malinvestment (TARP?), fraud, corruption, and ever constant ineptitude and inefficiency. So don't give too much thrift to the GDP boost from government spending. Building a $300 million bridge serving 50 people in Alaska boosts GDP just as much as private investors spending $300 million efficiently and effectively.
He can sign up his great grandkids to pay for this mess. I want mine to have a better future.

Something's Afoot in CDS: The Merrill - Bank of America Decompression Trade

I think he's saying that the shareholders didn't seem to mind the deal as the stock was rising, but now complain about that Lewis abrogated his responsibility, therefore they need to vote him out or shut up.
In defense of the complainers, he did have an obligation to pass on the deal or present an accurate picture of the deal to the shareholders.

One-Party Rule? Specter Defects to Democrats

Is there a big difference between Democrats and Republicans? I hadn't noticed. With Republicans in control, we had corporate cronyism, eroding rights, and rising deficits.
With Dems in control, we will have corporate cronyism, eroding rights, and rising deficits.
Hmmm, tough choice.

Earnings Preview: Starbucks

There is a good article by Andy Kern pointing out some difficulties for SBUX. It's hard to believe that SBUX will continue to be an amazing growth story when every article on saving money urges people to forgo premium coffee. How can they justify their valuation when they are cutting stores? As consumers look to find more value for their dollar, SBUX will continue to suffer.

Peak Oil as a Function of Earth's Volume

I think people are objecting to including the entire volume of the earth because the oil-containing crust is only 0.5% of the entire mass of the earth. If you were writing about a nickel or iron shortage then it would make more sense.

How libertarian dogma led the Fed astray: "The Fed's increasingly libertarian philosophy underpinned its view that it could not know how to recognise a credit bubble but knew what to do once a bubble burst."

The author is either being disingenuous or is idiotic beyond belief! How controlling the money supply and trying to micromanage inflation and recessions can be considered libertarian or lassiez faire anywhere but bizzaro world is beyond me.
And just say whoa, you are right. Thank god we have the Fed to protect us from suffering through any inflation or depressions. We have only had one Great Depression so far in US history, which the Fed took responsibility for. They have also managed to devalue the dollar 96% or so. Are you from the Bizarro world also?

After looking at government's website for tracking stimulus spending, Bob Williams at TaxVox thinks it's off to an encouraging start. Which surprises Conor Clarke at The Atlantic: "I really don't see what's so encouraging about the information the government has released. If anything, it's evidence that the government had better spend faster!"

I generally enjoy reading The Atlantic, but judging from his articles, Conor Clarke is a prize tool. He opposes a flat tax not just out of fairness, but he is worried about it affecting the efficiency of the IRS!
He probably agrees with recovery.org that the purpose of this spending is to "build the foundation for long-term economic growth". You can't make this stuff up!

Mexico's Woes: Quakes, Flu and Oil Production Collapse

I agree with Freya - Cantarell is a super concentrated field already exploited by gas injection and will continue its steep decline.
Worse is the decline faced by the people of Mexico. The government recieves up to 40% of its revenues from Pemex, a company $96 billion in debt and soon to have no oil for export. They are already struggling with the drug war, this is just piling on.

How Will Markets React to Mexico's Swine Flu Panic?

What decade is this? Struggling automakers, inflation fears, rising gold prices. The swine flu scare just adds to the nostalgia.
Sadly, I agree with Haerdt, although most disease outbreaks get a ridiculous amount of coverage.
As far as the markets, maybe the broken window analogy crowd will see some benefit. I'm sure vaccine makers are happy.

Warren Buffett gets many things right, but Andy Kern of Berkshire Ruminations says his stance on the U.S. debt bubble - that "we'll be fine in the long run" - is wrong. "How will we be living when 75% of our GDP is committed to simply servicing our national debt?"

Archman - wonderful comparison. It illustrates the way government functions.
A. Screw things up (see every Federal bureaucracy for examples)
B. Ask for more money

Thoughts on the Current Restructuring of Global Oil Demand

Jasper - you are probably right that increased auto ownership = increased deathrate. But couldn't widespread adoption of more efficient cars lead to overall increased lifespan and fewer health problems through a reduction in pollution? The two stroke scooters and pedicabs so popular in developing nations are pollution machines.
And to nobby - you are 100% correct about public transportation. Sadly, it is an uphill battle. In the past, there were too many corporate interests aligned against efficient public transportation. Hopefully the weakening influence of automakers will remove one hurdle. Public support seems to be growing as well.

New Home Sales: Trying to Make a Bottom

Good point Steve - I would include Fannie and Freddie in the "idiotic loan" department. You are right that there is no telling what the government could do, but at this point I think it is beyond their power to reinflate the housing bubble. I think any price increases in the foreseeable future will simply be reflecting overall inflation, and not an actual increase in value.


On Apr 25 09:45 AM Steve Owen wrote:

> HuskerBob has it right. Without the fraud the housing boom would
> not have happened. And sadly, a lot of builders were part of the
> problem. However, you may have missed or downplayed one factor, Bob.
> governmental action. It was Fannie and Freddie that really caused
> the housing bubble (I'm not discounting other factors such as too
> cheap interest and fraud); when they decided to push the envelope
> is really when things started to brew. Now they are in receivership,
> no telling what the government (with a primary purpose of putting
> people into houses) might do.

Thoughts on the Current Restructuring of Global Oil Demand

Wonderful article!
Jasper, the people who are moving up to a Tata are probably much safer than they were on a scooter.
Also, would the safety aspect of the switch to low consumption vehicles factor in lower consumption?
Less weight = less steel = less dependence on oil prices, lower cost of ownership, more discretionary income, more money = longer life.
Poverty is the #1 factor for reduced lifespan.