cranky old investor

Will McCain's Vice Presidential Selection Help the Markets?

Sure it will affect the market, for at least 11 minutes; then something else will.
Why would it matter who is McCain's running mate? About the only thing Romney can do is increase demand for nausea pills; Pawlenty, on the other hand, could create acute shortages in No-Doz.

Retail Replay: 'Resilient' Consumers?

i wouldn't read too much into walmart's sales results; they've been able to do a bigger push on groceries which were hit with much higher prices; thus, while same store sales may have been up 3.1%, a lot of that may be just the food-sector inflation talking.

Until WMT releases their earnings for the 1st Q, it's still a mystery as to how well they brought their volume increase to the bottom line.

I Guess This Means AIG Stock Will Rise 10% Tomorrow

it's guys like AIG getting involved with things they don't understand like insuring mortgages instead of arson, that makes you think that all of business is as full of crap now as ever before.

insurance is a business where you make nickels, millions of them, one at a time. to get destroyed by an act of god is bad. to self-destruct is criminal

6 Risky-But-Worth-It Bets - Barron's

if i were a betting man, i'd say that the safer bet on felcor - fch - is the preferred shares; if the common is solid, then the preferred, yielding in excess of 9.5 percent and selling at a whopping discount to call or par, is a safer way to earn above-average returns with below average risk

As Home Sales Plunge, Some Say the Crisis Is Almost Over

it's about affordability; it's about momentum; it's about breaking the link between housing and investing;
it will take a lot of time for the housing crisis to resolve itself. but it won't be fully resolved until reasonably safe mortgages can be made at levels that are actually affordable by buyers without artificial stimuli of "no credit check" and "no money down"

A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present)

the failure of this analysis is that it looks at reits without looking at the future earning power of their underlying assets; many reit classes - retail, lodging, office - may suffer stagnation of retail revenues and an erosion of earnings in markets which are overbuilt. there are multiple trends which show, for example, that the retail real estate portfolio of the US economy exceeds the true demand for retail space by over 15 percent. Consolidation among retailers along with tied-to-sales rents can keep even the strongest mall operators from achieving any sort of growth; the 2nd tier will undoubtedly be forced to cut dividends as the coverage ratios move into danger zones.

Betting on reits means betting on the health of the US economy when the real visibility is murky, at best.

GE: Immelt Gets Welched

it would be wonderful - however, judging by price alone, imnelt has done absolutely nothing to increase value to date

Czech Mate - Cramer's Mad Money (04.11.08)

cramer feels that wmt can reach 60; but can it hold a 60 price without once again running to chase growth. the problem at walmart is that once they've convinced everyone that they were right in curtailing spending, they'll go ahead and restart their overexpansion programs

GE Has Been Woeful, Go For a Sector ETF Instead

GE has provided the average investor with a unique opportunity: to buy the stock, collect a dividend just shy of 4%, and wait for a recovery. It's div is secure; it's taken its lumps; it's still in the strongest growing businesses around; and it's not going to screw up again. The bulk of its miss, resulting from the inability to dispose of assets in a volatile market, are likely to be reversed as some stability returns; in the meanwhile it still enjoys about the lowest borrowing costs in corporate America, giving its finance arm a competitive advantage in loan pricing.
At $32 it's a lot safer with as much upside potential as any ETF on the screen

Retail Market Musings: Wal-Mart, Target, B.J's and Costco

trading down - target is not a "down-trade" to many; much of target's goods are cheap-chic, not basic necessities. Walmart, on the other hand, sells stuff that people might need - like milk, cereal, diapers.

equating the two chains is a fallacy that those on wall street - with little access to or inclination to shop in either store - fall into on a regular basis. To many who are on the low on the socioeconomic ladder - including many who've recently landed there - Walmart is where you do your shopping for necessities, Target is a place to splurge.

Strategic Hotels & Resorts Finds Some Extra Cash (BEE)

it's nice to "find" 40 million dollars, although it was never really lost; it's a bit disconcerting, however, to realize that a $40million item was overlooked in prepearing financial statements. this isn't a $200billion company here. this is a relatively large amount and call into question the overall quality of the numbers.

Money Magazine ETF Recommendations: Keeping It Simple May Be Stupid

10 etf's are no safer than 3 when the whole world marches in lockstep