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SivBum

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  • NQ Mobile, A Near-Term Road Map: Navigating Your Investment Through Uncertain Times [View article]
    An A for this case study, data driven and unbiased conclusion.
    Dec 12, 2013. 09:04 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the Myth of Exploding U.S. Money Supply [View article]
    Don't think Bill Gross would put out something erroneous without fact check it to death:
    Washington, Main Street – and importantly from an investment perspective – Wall Street await the outcome. Because QE has affected not only interest rates but stock prices and all risk spreads, the withdrawal of nearly $1.5 trillion in annualized check writing may have dramatic consequences in the reverse direction. To visualize the gaping hole that the Fed’s void might have, PIMCO has produced a set of three pie charts that attempt to point out (1) who owns what percentage of the existing stock of Treasuries, (2) who has been buying the annual supply (which closely parallels the Federal deficit) and (3) who might step up to the plate if and when the Fed and its QE bat are retired. The sequential charts 1, 2 and 3 are illuminating, but not necessarily comforting.

    What an unbiased observer must admit is that most of the publically issued $9 trillion of Treasury notes and bonds are now in the hands of foreign sovereigns and the Fed (60%) while private market investors such as bond funds, insurance companies and banks are in the (40%) minority. More striking, however, is the evidence in Chart 2 which points out that nearly 70% of the annualized issuance since the beginning of QE II has been purchased by the Fed, with the balance absorbed by those old standbys – the Chinese, Japanese and other reserve surplus sovereigns. Basically, the recent game plan is as simple as the Ohio State Buckeyes’ “three yards and a cloud of dust” in the 1960s. When applied to the Treasury market it translates to this: The Treasury issues bonds and the Fed buys them. What could be simpler, and who’s to worry? This Sammy Scheme as I’ve described it in recent Outlooks is as foolproof as Ponzi and Madoff until… until… well, until it isn’t. Because like at the end of a typical chain letter, the legitimate corollary question is – Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t?

    www.pimco.com/
    Mar 8, 2011. 10:46 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman: Oil Over $100 in 2011; Gold to $1,335 [View article]
    Didn't Goldman Sucks predicted $200 oil back in 2006? Didn't Goldman also bet US$ would fall in 7 months ago, but reversed itself in May and now reversed again?

    I am better off listening to my barbar and shoeshiner.
    Jul 21, 2010. 11:51 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Would Anyone Risk Trading NQ Mobile Here? [View article]
    Wait, thought you were not taking ANY position within 72 hours, yet you wrote: I staked a short the day the news came out and I was carried out.
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:55 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exchanges bust erroneous pre-close AOL trades [View news story]
    Such trades are getting more frequent with those dark pool traders gaming the system. This type of problem is happening more and more. And they wonder why the little guys have left Wall Street.
    May 13, 2014. 09:55 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: Why the Market Will Keep Sliding [View article]
    Did Barrons predicted the dot-com bust of 2000 to 2002, or crash in Oct 2007 that lasted till Feb 2009? Did Barrons predicted the near 80% market advance between Mar09 to Mar10? If they had, I'll short the market 1,000%.
    Jun 27, 2010. 01:33 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: 99 Problems But Printin' Shares Ain't One [View article]
    MW's initial coverage on ONP was in June 2010, over 4 years ago. Let's stick with more recent calls:

    Carson's latest short list of 7:

    1) FOCUS MEDIA HOLDINGS - MBO
    2) SPREADTRUM COMMUNICATIONS- doubled and MBO
    3) QIHOO 360 - Trading higher
    4) FUSHI COPPERWELD - MBO
    5) NEW ORIENTAL AND TECHNOLOGY GROUP - MBO
    6) OLAM INTERNATIONAL - Trading higher
    7) AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION - trading near 2x Carson's PT

    NQ is currently far from zero and may be Muddy's eighth bagger in a row.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:12 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Looks Like A Tasty Short After Running 15% Friday [View article]
    Checked the options chain and still not seeing any significant open interest puts at or below $3 going out to Dec. It is a head scratcher why the shorts are not loading up those tickets to riches !
    Jul 20, 2014. 10:50 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ: You Can't Fool All Of The People All Of The Time [View article]
    Hmn! Watered down indictment vs its Oct 24, 2013 initiating coverage:

    Muddy Waters rates NQ Mobile Inc. (NYSE: NQ) shares a Strong Sell. In this latest report Muddy Waters highlights how:

    NQ is a massive fraud. We believe it is a “Zero”. At least 72% of NQ’s purported 2012 China security revenue is fictitious. NQ’s largest customer by far is really NQ. Our research estimates that NQ’s real market share in China is only about 1.5%, versus the approximately 55% it reports. We estimate that its China paying user base is less than 250,000, versus the six million NQ claims.
    NQ’s Antivirus 7.0 is unsafe for sale to consumers, and we consider it to be spyware that makes users’ phones vulnerable to cyber attack. NQ makes a weak attempt to protect users’ private data as it’s uploaded through the Chinese government’s firewall to NQ’s server. Phones are vulnerable to MITM attacks because NQ fails to adhere to basic security protocols. MW engaged top-flight security software engineers to analyze this product.
    NQ’s purported international revenue of $36.5 million is likely less real than its PRC revenue. NQ claims to generate international revenue in obscure markets, and through mysterious counterparties that seem to seldom pay.
    NQ’s future is as bleak as its past. The recent pivot to advertising and gaming is merely an attempt to change to a fraud that NQ hopes will be less obvious. NQ cannot monetize users that it does not have.
    NQ’s acquisitions are highly likely to be corrupt.
    NQ’s cash balances are highly likely to not be real. In NQ’s 2012 20-F, PwC classified all cash and term deposits as Level 2 assets (slightly hard to value), which is the first time we have seen this. NQ’s purported movements of cash from its IPO almost certainly did not occur due to PRC FX controls. We therefore believe the term deposits are likely forgeries.
    Apr 14, 2014. 09:51 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Jobs Report: Truly Bad News [View article]
    These price deflation are based on hyper inflated prices of 2007 bubble: "Throw in a 35% drop in home prices, a 25% drop in equity prices, a 40% plus drop in commercial real estate values and we are in the grips of serious deflation." The real prices for everyday joes are the higher fuel and food costs that we must purchase, not another summer home in Lake Tahoe or 401K fully loaded in S&P500.
    Oct 8, 2010. 09:56 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Rejects Bison Capital's $785M Buyout Offer And Why I'm Buying This Dip [View article]
    Yes, There was a third bullet fired from another gun on the grassy knoll. The moon landing was staged inside The Crater of the Moon, Idaho. 9-11 was a liberal conspiracy.

    Now, World Eco Forum has taken brides is new though.
    Nov 1, 2014. 10:47 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: 1 Question, 5 Answers? [View article]
    When the mud slingers are grasping at straws, we know they are pissing in the wind. What's next? Cocaine traces found in the $100 million pile?
    Nov 4, 2013. 04:39 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Rejects Bison Capital's $785M Buyout Offer And Why I'm Buying This Dip [View article]
    jc, You either believe in Lin, Omar, Mathison, Bison CEO, Altimeter Manager, Oberweiss manager, Morgan Stanley bond underwriter, DB bond underwriter, MBP auditor, D&T team, DLA Piper LLP, Stroz Friedbergand, Gavin Kim, Conrad Edwards, Golden Bridge Awards, China Telecom, China Unicom, ... Softbank, Brightstar, Samsung, Sprint etc or rather they are all in cohort to defraud investors. What do you think.
    Nov 1, 2014. 04:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Round-Tripping? Further Adventures Down The Muddy Waters Rabbit Hole [View article]
    Trade Star, wow! articulate in point by point rebuttal. I am impressed with your data collection, twice in two weeks.
    Dec 17, 2013. 02:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Believe In Yidatong (NQ's Largest Purported Revenue Source), You'll Believe In Santa Claus [View article]
    Carson Block was right ... NQ does not have $100 million but $103 million in yuan equivalent. There, a criminal offense in accounting, off by a whopping 3 % !!!
    Nov 6, 2013. 04:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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