SivBum

Paulson & Co's Latest Portfolio: 13F Filing

JAVA is shining this morning, up 4% rtq. Wonder what Paulson's entry was.

Earnings Reports Threaten to Deflate Balloon Boy Dow

Not all assets, forget those related to housing sector: home builders, furnitures, appliances, mortgage banks, commercial REITs. Also, after ramping up more than 50% since Mar 9th, the highly anticipated correction is due any time, in nominal terms.


On Oct 19 09:00 AM Faisal Humayun wrote:

> There is no doubt that the analyst earnings estimates for the next
> fiscal are way too optimistic...Thus, when Companies fall below these
> optimistic numbers, there is bound to be some correction in the markets...
>
>
> However, there is no concern of another big crash in the markets...At
> least in the forseeable future...The reason - ample liquidity to
> support almost all asset classes...
>
> Moreover, any weakness in the markets or the economy will be tackled
> by more quantitative easing or stimulus packages (which means more
> money to speculate in the markets)...So over long term, the Dow is
> set to go higher in nominal terms...

Dow Member Year to Date Performance

Nice chart... NAS rules YTD as of today's close:

sym Today <---> Peak(Oct-07) <---> Low(Mar-09) <---> YTD Change
dow 8447.53 <---> -40.36% <---> 30.57% <---> -3.74%
nas 1835.04 <---> -35.82% <---> 45.00% <---> 16.36%
spx 919.33 <---> -41.26% <---> 37.87% <---> 1.81%

Bank of America: Due for a Rebound or Just Too Risky?

Who can argue with this:

2.53 on 2/20
5.24 rtq

Why Banks Write Down but Don't Sell Subprime Loans

"...Assuming 28% default rates (and that all 28% default right away), that basket of mortgages is worth 79 cents on the dollar...."

When a loan defaults, it's not worthless. The bank put the property on short sales and recovers at least 50% after fees etc.

Russell 3000 Stock Performance YTD

Geenspan's irrational exuberance speech was made over 10 years ago in 1998. That's more than a few years ago. He made the internet bubble by flooding wall street with y2k money. His follow-up act was depressing fed rates for too long and watched over the Housing bust.


On Feb 13 04:33 PM 2bagboy wrote:

> It's amazing that only a few short years ago Greenspan call the bull
> 'irrational exhuberance', yet today the small cap is being pummeled
> for unjustifiable inexhuberance. I track about 100 small cap value
> growth (stocks Buffett would buy if they were bigger), I invested
> in Lifecell in 2001 at less than $3 and road it to above $40. But
> I have never seen the opportunity that exists today.
> In order to make my watchlist a company needs to have doubled rev
> in the past 3 years and have D/E less than .25 (0) in many cases.
> Of these 30% are selling at or near cash. 40% at or below Net Asset
> Value. 100% have positive earnings.
> This doesn't make one bit of sense to me.
> There are boundless investing opportunities, unlike any we (our generation)
> has ever seen. But the detractors who wish to steal our money by
> filling the market with panic and hysteria continue to have free
> run. The DC leadership needs to take measures that calm the investment
> community quickly or there will not be enough money on earth to stimulate
> an economy being manipulated by ultra-rich greed mongers.
>
> Disclosure. Long on belief in my fellow Americans, short on the greedy
> short artists.

Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism?

Only 3 of the 30 showed marginal gain YTD....and that was last week. Brutal year so far.

New Lows For the Dow

Thanks for the listing...it has been a wiped out for big caps...what's not shown are similar bloodletting for mid & small caps as well. Only shining stars are oil/services and TIPs.