SivBum

Earnings Reports Threaten to Deflate Balloon Boy Dow

Not all assets, forget those related to housing sector: home builders, furnitures, appliances, mortgage banks, commercial REITs. Also, after ramping up more than 50% since Mar 9th, the highly anticipated correction is due any time, in nominal terms.


On Oct 19 09:00 AM Faisal Humayun wrote:

> There is no doubt that the analyst earnings estimates for the next
> fiscal are way too optimistic...Thus, when Companies fall below these
> optimistic numbers, there is bound to be some correction in the markets...
>
>
> However, there is no concern of another big crash in the markets...At
> least in the forseeable future...The reason - ample liquidity to
> support almost all asset classes...
>
> Moreover, any weakness in the markets or the economy will be tackled
> by more quantitative easing or stimulus packages (which means more
> money to speculate in the markets)...So over long term, the Dow is
> set to go higher in nominal terms...

High Frequency Trading and Its Victims

That's a long standing problem with stop-loss orders with volatile stocks. Happens to me all the time. What he should have done was to establish a low ball buys at 10%, 15% and 20% below his stop-loss limit order.

Putting Job Losses Into Perspective

More than 80% of the workers are gamefully employed and doing the spending for the 20% underemployed. No end of the world as advertised by several Nobel Econ winners during this past Winter.

U.S. Indices: YTD Stats, Current Moving Averages (September 25 Close)

And look at the gains since Mar-9 lows:

sym 25-Sep <---> Peak(Oct-07) <---> Low(Mar-09) <---> YTD Change Pk=Vy IntraLows
dow 9665.19 <---> -31.76% <---> 49.39% <---> 10.13% -54.32% 6440
nas 2090.92 <---> -26.87% <---> 65.22% <---> 32.59% -55.74% 1266
spx 1044.39 <---> -33.27% <---> 56.63% <---> 15.66% -57.39% 667

Is Employment a Lagging Indicator?

Labor statistics include hours worked, hourly paid and other measures on unemployment rates. Devil in the details.

Abby Joseph Cohen's Bullish Calls

Unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly...but market hasn't gone up the roof as futures had predicted before the opening bell. Time to load up.

What 'Better than Expected' Earnings Actually Means

Share prices are traded on expected performance measures, including eps. Better than expected means share prices have been traded "low-ball" and should be adjusted higher accordingly.

Krugman on Unemployment and GDP: Huh?

Right,

You have as much right as a 4th grader to guess at the outcome of an high energy physics experiment at Lawrence Livermore Lab. LOL!


On Aug 03 07:44 AM TCK wrote:

> Regarding Krugman;
>
> I am not a trained economist, but I have as much right to guess as
> he does !

Imagine This Scenario for Earnings Estimates

The Mark to Market change to Mark to Murk created the gush of earnings in the Financial sectors. Very nice for spin doctors CFOs with their guidances.

Dow Member Year to Date Performance

Nice chart... NAS rules YTD as of today's close:

sym Today <---> Peak(Oct-07) <---> Low(Mar-09) <---> YTD Change
dow 8447.53 <---> -40.36% <---> 30.57% <---> -3.74%
nas 1835.04 <---> -35.82% <---> 45.00% <---> 16.36%
spx 919.33 <---> -41.26% <---> 37.87% <---> 1.81%

Will It Be 'Reversal Tuesday'?

880 for S&P has been sitting tight. It may break thru if Benanke says too much at 2:15pm such as double digit unemployment or bathtub recovery.

Why Marc Faber Is Wrong About the CPI

That's an original thought! So is OPEC that feeds our transportation needs. We are tackling OPEC with green tech. Hope to bring back some manufacturing to counter China.


On Jun 22 09:47 AM TeresaE wrote:

> Since China controls so much of our necessity/day to day living items
> (processed foods, OTC medicines, pharmaceuticals &amp; clothes) it
> really doesn't matter about OUR jobs, credit and homes.
>
> When China feels secure enough in their own economy (with a middle
> class that is over twice the size of our entire population) inflation
> for the necessities will skyrocket.
>
> It is already happening if you bother to look.
>
> Now throw in utilities and increased "fees" and taxes and start to
> understand what the "average" American family is experiencing.<br/>

Riding the Flat Line

Agree that the trend is up but still not time to buy-and-hold. The hockey stick rise in major indices since Mar lows provides fun times for day and swing traders. Though VIX has fallen to 30, lowest since last Oct, but still higher than 15 during boom times.

Beware of GAAP

I am all for digging into the details of balance sheets and discount one time charges. However, when those expenses become recurring non-recurring and quarterly one-time charges (such as stock options, layoff severances, offshore plant closings, borrowing costs etc), time to question the quality of those non-GAAP data sets.

Case in point, csco has reported record earnings in the past few years and its stock at less than $20 rtq is still a tiny fraction of its Apr 2000 high of $76.

A Rally of Historic Proportions

Seems to me the sum of them has worked to reverse the economic meltdown that began well before these actions taken:

" For government to disregard contract law, to force bond holders from the front of the lien line, for government to increase our debt 4 fold in just months, to forgo proven tehchologies and commit trillions to unproven technologies, to indebt every tax payer with deficits that will be untenable without major tax increases in the very near future ... "

On Jun 03 09:20 AM enigmaman wrote:

> I find it amazing how many people feel like they know enough about
> the future to bet on it, bet that things will go back to the old
> normal, GDP will be + before the end of the 3rd quarter, that companies
> will soon be profitable enough to justify recent gains, considering
> this is supposed to be the worst recession since the 29 crash you
> would think investors would look at that correlation especialy the
> way Obama is mirroring the FDR agenda. That being the case why not
> expect the same result, to do the same and expect a different outcome
> is insane, let history be your guide. Government unpresidented intervention
> into banking, auto, healthcare etc, government dictating what is
> reasonable pay for uppper management and now lower is counter the
> free market. For government to disregard contract law, to force bond
> holders from the front of the lien line, for government to increase
> our debt 4 fold in just months, to forgo proven tehchologies and
> commit trillions to unproven technologies, to indebt every tax payer
> with deficits that will be untenable without major tax increases
> in the very near future, to believe all these will not substantially
> impact our economy is mindboggling, if you think its all good then
> do as Obama has bet the farm, double down, go for broke. Nothing
> about our future will be the same as before, to bet on the unknown
> as so many are leads me to believe that history will repeat itself
> as it did during the great depression, reality will prevail