Soham Das's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/176218/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/155987/comments?source=feed#comment-657740 657740
Exploiting the Financial Illiterate???

Exploiting?
Profit is good, monsieur.

Financial Illiterate.
They might be academically illiterate, but not quite financially. A recent research paper, has shown that marginalised folks in EM have much better personal finance habits than even the blessed in Western Hemisphere.
All said and done, crisis comes time and again, but not the same one!]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 02:08:54 -0400
Exploiting the Financial Illiterate???

Exploiting?
Profit is good, monsieur.

Financial Illiterate.
They might be academically illiterate, but not quite financially. A recent research paper, has shown that marginalised folks in EM have much better personal finance habits than even the blessed in Western Hemisphere.
All said and done, crisis comes time and again, but not the same one!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134253/comments?source=feed#comment-485071 485071
I am a simple man. A simple trader to be exact. I don't understand much fundamental geekery. Speak can't much no Anglesias too.
I just wanna ask you one thing: A very simple thing.

How did you come across the magic figure of $8? How?
Its neither a previous support, nor a previous resistance. No trendlines as well.
IMO, $9.5 is the price you should be looking at. But then smart money already bought when it crossed $5.75]]> Fri, 01 May 2009 04:05:26 -0400
I am a simple man. A simple trader to be exact. I don't understand much fundamental geekery. Speak can't much no Anglesias too.
I just wanna ask you one thing: A very simple thing.

How did you come across the magic figure of $8? How?
Its neither a previous support, nor a previous resistance. No trendlines as well.
IMO, $9.5 is the price you should be looking at. But then smart money already bought when it crossed $5.75]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131317/comments?source=feed#comment-466055 466055 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 23:22:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127016/comments?source=feed#comment-434383 434383 Technical Analysis works and when coupled with understanding of the macroeconomics can prove to be a force to reckon with.
Naturally, Chris has everything on his side.

]]> Sat, 21 Mar 2009 09:50:00 -0400 Technical Analysis works and when coupled with understanding of the macroeconomics can prove to be a force to reckon with.
Naturally, Chris has everything on his side.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112874/comments?source=feed#comment-417219 417219
1. Obama again, I reiterate has very few resources at hand, and bailouts, TARP/CRAP/TRAP are all ways to say "Alright, let me see, if this works....oops!" [Bailouts: Check]

2.Job losses in 2008, was staggerring but nothing compared to the ones we will have in 2009. [Job Loss: check]

3. Auto Loan Default mode is already on. GM annoucing possible bankruptcy. [Loan Defaults : Check]

4. Housing Mortgage Failures [Partial check]

5. I am wondering if India will turn by '09Q3 or not.[Cross]

There are a few developments which are rolling in right now. The year is still young. And I am shorting [for disclaimers and disclosures]]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 11:58:56 -0500
1. Obama again, I reiterate has very few resources at hand, and bailouts, TARP/CRAP/TRAP are all ways to say "Alright, let me see, if this works....oops!" [Bailouts: Check]

2.Job losses in 2008, was staggerring but nothing compared to the ones we will have in 2009. [Job Loss: check]

3. Auto Loan Default mode is already on. GM annoucing possible bankruptcy. [Loan Defaults : Check]

4. Housing Mortgage Failures [Partial check]

5. I am wondering if India will turn by '09Q3 or not.[Cross]

There are a few developments which are rolling in right now. The year is still young. And I am shorting [for disclaimers and disclosures]]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123995/comments?source=feed#comment-412593 412593 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 10:19:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120295/comments?source=feed#comment-386879 386879
If its along the primary trend then the retribution is swift. If its counter trend, then while the upmove lasts is violent but it tends to stable out again, till the primary trend changes.

As such the crux is : prepare for a big move, either upside or downside.]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 08:50:52 -0500
If its along the primary trend then the retribution is swift. If its counter trend, then while the upmove lasts is violent but it tends to stable out again, till the primary trend changes.

As such the crux is : prepare for a big move, either upside or downside.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118465/comments?source=feed#comment-375728 375728 Synonymous with Thailand's status after Asian Financial Crisis.
]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 13:26:59 -0500 Synonymous with Thailand's status after Asian Financial Crisis.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113463/comments?source=feed#comment-348241 348241
For one, I have a view. A pretty biased view, the management is not good, you can still play with your money and hold it. The management is bad, [?] then stay away from it even if you the pro speculator.

Management of SAY was the most unscrupulous one, I have come across. Read about SAY-UPAID fiasco. [Google is your friend: G: Satyam sued]
Read about WORLD BANK datasnooping fiasco.

FYI, WORLD BANK indeed discovered data snooping happening from modules developed by SAY[ and you know where was it going? China]

The Maytas fiasco now to my surprise was not to save Maytas but something even sinister and shocking. It was to save SAY itself. Seems the balance sheet is blown up.

Goodbye Raju, say hello to new acquirer.

My take: SAY ripe for an INFY takeover. HCL can't because it is now cash strapped due to the recent Axon takeover. But I am hoping INFY puts some legs to its cash reserve and use it to take over SAY.

]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 04:07:03 -0500
For one, I have a view. A pretty biased view, the management is not good, you can still play with your money and hold it. The management is bad, [?] then stay away from it even if you the pro speculator.

Management of SAY was the most unscrupulous one, I have come across. Read about SAY-UPAID fiasco. [Google is your friend: G: Satyam sued]
Read about WORLD BANK datasnooping fiasco.

FYI, WORLD BANK indeed discovered data snooping happening from modules developed by SAY[ and you know where was it going? China]

The Maytas fiasco now to my surprise was not to save Maytas but something even sinister and shocking. It was to save SAY itself. Seems the balance sheet is blown up.

Goodbye Raju, say hello to new acquirer.

My take: SAY ripe for an INFY takeover. HCL can't because it is now cash strapped due to the recent Axon takeover. But I am hoping INFY puts some legs to its cash reserve and use it to take over SAY.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112715/comments?source=feed#comment-343030 343030
For all the backlashings, speculators have got in the recent time, due to the Oil Bubble, few attributed the demise of the Oil bubble to speculators. I am tempted to look the other way and give the speculators a clean chit[there might be a professional camaraderie hidden in that statement]


]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 20:53:37 -0500
For all the backlashings, speculators have got in the recent time, due to the Oil Bubble, few attributed the demise of the Oil bubble to speculators. I am tempted to look the other way and give the speculators a clean chit[there might be a professional camaraderie hidden in that statement]


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112420/comments?source=feed#comment-342202 342202 Wed, 31 Dec 2008 02:12:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108702/comments?source=feed#comment-319649 319649
In a bear run [which in turn is an exhibition of increasingly negative social mood] companies who underperform get hammered but those who generate results outside street's expectations [positive] just stay placid. The situation just reverses in bull market.

Information will be seen from a general lens of social mood. And to say that 'this' news made the markets rally high is flawed. You might say the social interpretation of so and so news made it rally high.
And this social interpretation is decided by prevalent social mood]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:37:13 -0500
In a bear run [which in turn is an exhibition of increasingly negative social mood] companies who underperform get hammered but those who generate results outside street's expectations [positive] just stay placid. The situation just reverses in bull market.

Information will be seen from a general lens of social mood. And to say that 'this' news made the markets rally high is flawed. You might say the social interpretation of so and so news made it rally high.
And this social interpretation is decided by prevalent social mood]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108702/comments?source=feed#comment-318663 318663
Because markets are dominated by crowd behaviour and crowd behaviour is essentially emotion driven and not logic driven, thus expecting it to rationally analyse the situation while a news hits the market is irrational in itself.
We are forgetting, markets are not efficient.

A few words delving deeper in this arena is given here:

jumpup.wordpress.com/2.../]]> Tue, 02 Dec 2008 07:37:17 -0500
Because markets are dominated by crowd behaviour and crowd behaviour is essentially emotion driven and not logic driven, thus expecting it to rationally analyse the situation while a news hits the market is irrational in itself.
We are forgetting, markets are not efficient.

A few words delving deeper in this arena is given here:

jumpup.wordpress.com/2.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108375/comments?source=feed#comment-317058 317058
The details of investment will have to checked out. ]]> Sat, 29 Nov 2008 03:03:01 -0500
The details of investment will have to checked out. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100859/comments?source=feed#comment-287887 287887
It is but a common knowledge that stock markets lead the economy by approximately two quarters.
While, the common socioeconomic mood will worsen (or lets say hit a bottom), investing will see higher and higher VIX . And this might be an interesting thing for long term buyers, because often higher volatility is marked by a significant bottom.

So you might say, that worsening socio economic mood is helping stock market to bottom out.[Just a perspective, its extensively used by options traders]

So the question we might be asking here is, is this the bottom?
Who knows?
Is this the time to invest?
You bet!

In what?
Frontline stocks, midcap stocks, commodities [the great commodity bull run should be starting any time now], precious metal etc.]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:37:07 -0400
It is but a common knowledge that stock markets lead the economy by approximately two quarters.
While, the common socioeconomic mood will worsen (or lets say hit a bottom), investing will see higher and higher VIX . And this might be an interesting thing for long term buyers, because often higher volatility is marked by a significant bottom.

So you might say, that worsening socio economic mood is helping stock market to bottom out.[Just a perspective, its extensively used by options traders]

So the question we might be asking here is, is this the bottom?
Who knows?
Is this the time to invest?
You bet!

In what?
Frontline stocks, midcap stocks, commodities [the great commodity bull run should be starting any time now], precious metal etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93320/comments?source=feed#comment-242975 242975 Mon, 01 Sep 2008 03:44:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84952/comments?source=feed#comment-206087 206087 jumpup.wordpress.com/2.../

In fact, with an additional 5trillion dollar debt on public ledgers, the entire thing looks pretty grim to me. Another additional thing which will affect the situation is, with dollars falling, yen is going to be stronger, which in turn is going to affect job creation opportunities as well.]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:08:22 -0400 jumpup.wordpress.com/2.../

In fact, with an additional 5trillion dollar debt on public ledgers, the entire thing looks pretty grim to me. Another additional thing which will affect the situation is, with dollars falling, yen is going to be stronger, which in turn is going to affect job creation opportunities as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80747/comments?source=feed#comment-183494 183494
@hownow... of course I am not changing my tunes now... I am still long on Indian economy and bullish on it... but this report is just a short term report... wait till August [preferably, citation needed] to see some movement...

And the April one was a socio economic take... mentioned in comments as well, which forecasts long term prospects, not the short term investing scenes.. which matches with my present take as well [both long]... [ :) Faulty data, tell me about it ;) ]

Cant you see, all the previous three articles deal with LONG investments?


]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 13:21:03 -0400
@hownow... of course I am not changing my tunes now... I am still long on Indian economy and bullish on it... but this report is just a short term report... wait till August [preferably, citation needed] to see some movement...

And the April one was a socio economic take... mentioned in comments as well, which forecasts long term prospects, not the short term investing scenes.. which matches with my present take as well [both long]... [ :) Faulty data, tell me about it ;) ]

Cant you see, all the previous three articles deal with LONG investments?


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80380/comments?source=feed#comment-180662 180662 Nice to have you all here..

@Thomas, I don't know if you gave the links a read, but on Jump Up! [the blog to which I have linked] in fact at the end signs off with this thought that, there is a huge cusp between getting patents granted and implementing them in a business, especially one like this. So the point was always acknowledged. Yet the takeaway essentially is, Infy at the end of the day is showing some real initiatives to stay at the top of the next wave of outsourcing.

And what remains,yes, Finacle is indeed a milestone in their business and received a lot of rave reviews from Gartner as well.And I do see, Finacle being a clincher, but unfortunately it is just one single product in its line.
But understand this, that in the coming years, Infosys will really not be earning its bread and butter from maintaining and developing databases and servers. It will be moving in areas and domains which is not even its core strength, thus perhaps even changing its entire core competency in the process, moving higher up in the chain. And as again said, Infosys is just now happy with maintaining world's servers, it wants to actively develop and have stake in them, which again is a good news.

@Quixote, Most of the points I have covered with a reply to Thomas. Yet, some more clarification is needed. Some of the areas are indeed outside Infosys' tradional business domain, like grid computing, pervasive computing etc. But in the coming years [read half a decade or so], the way the world carries out its projects will change too. So in effect, what is a weak point today can be made a strong point tomorrow by investment and focus, which Infy seems to be doing fine. And secondly Infy has to move up the value chain before the third wave comes in, so its imperative to explore newer areas rather than beat around the same old bush.
Incidentally Infy's research initiative reminds me of GE and Honda in its own humble ways. [I know I know,presumptuous to even compare them]. But think of it, Honda's robots and cars have very less to do with each other, yet Honda is pursuing those frontiers aggressively.
GE is not exactly known as a semi research company, but in Niskayuna it has a dedicated site to research and develop cutting edge solid state devices.
Hope you get the point.]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 20:11:05 -0400 Nice to have you all here..

@Thomas, I don't know if you gave the links a read, but on Jump Up! [the blog to which I have linked] in fact at the end signs off with this thought that, there is a huge cusp between getting patents granted and implementing them in a business, especially one like this. So the point was always acknowledged. Yet the takeaway essentially is, Infy at the end of the day is showing some real initiatives to stay at the top of the next wave of outsourcing.

And what remains,yes, Finacle is indeed a milestone in their business and received a lot of rave reviews from Gartner as well.And I do see, Finacle being a clincher, but unfortunately it is just one single product in its line.
But understand this, that in the coming years, Infosys will really not be earning its bread and butter from maintaining and developing databases and servers. It will be moving in areas and domains which is not even its core strength, thus perhaps even changing its entire core competency in the process, moving higher up in the chain. And as again said, Infosys is just now happy with maintaining world's servers, it wants to actively develop and have stake in them, which again is a good news.

@Quixote, Most of the points I have covered with a reply to Thomas. Yet, some more clarification is needed. Some of the areas are indeed outside Infosys' tradional business domain, like grid computing, pervasive computing etc. But in the coming years [read half a decade or so], the way the world carries out its projects will change too. So in effect, what is a weak point today can be made a strong point tomorrow by investment and focus, which Infy seems to be doing fine. And secondly Infy has to move up the value chain before the third wave comes in, so its imperative to explore newer areas rather than beat around the same old bush.
Incidentally Infy's research initiative reminds me of GE and Honda in its own humble ways. [I know I know,presumptuous to even compare them]. But think of it, Honda's robots and cars have very less to do with each other, yet Honda is pursuing those frontiers aggressively.
GE is not exactly known as a semi research company, but in Niskayuna it has a dedicated site to research and develop cutting edge solid state devices.
Hope you get the point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72881/comments?source=feed#comment-154155 154155
Volatility keeps weaklings out of the equation... if you feel bullish its best not to have weak hands in the deal :)]]> Mon, 21 Apr 2008 14:17:28 -0400
Volatility keeps weaklings out of the equation... if you feel bullish its best not to have weak hands in the deal :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72881/comments?source=feed#comment-153990 153990
I am a technical analyst, and I am not following FMCG much, but yet this is my two pence:

Depending on the entry point and investment horizon which you take, my opinion will vary slightly.

If you invested in SDA anywhere between 2005-2006, then 2007 was the apt time to exit as Brazil was reeling under inflation and FMCG stocks are observed to do good at those times. In fact anytime in 2007 was a good time to exit. Now going forward, it is a strong HOLD signal from my side. You may be able to book some profits in around 12months.

And if you have planned to enter now... it is a strong BUY signal from my side. The business looks pretty good to me.

I guess if you follow granger's investment philosophy of buy and forget then this 'should' be returning quite a hefty profit.

Sadia is expected to do good in around OCT-NOV-DEC and regional wise in UK and Russia.


[Disclaimer: I do not hold SADIA SA at the time of writing and the views above should not be construed as investment advise. Please do your own deductions and refer a qualified stock broker before making any investment decisions]
]]> Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:18:10 -0400
I am a technical analyst, and I am not following FMCG much, but yet this is my two pence:

Depending on the entry point and investment horizon which you take, my opinion will vary slightly.

If you invested in SDA anywhere between 2005-2006, then 2007 was the apt time to exit as Brazil was reeling under inflation and FMCG stocks are observed to do good at those times. In fact anytime in 2007 was a good time to exit. Now going forward, it is a strong HOLD signal from my side. You may be able to book some profits in around 12months.

And if you have planned to enter now... it is a strong BUY signal from my side. The business looks pretty good to me.

I guess if you follow granger's investment philosophy of buy and forget then this 'should' be returning quite a hefty profit.

Sadia is expected to do good in around OCT-NOV-DEC and regional wise in UK and Russia.


[Disclaimer: I do not hold SADIA SA at the time of writing and the views above should not be construed as investment advise. Please do your own deductions and refer a qualified stock broker before making any investment decisions]
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72881/comments?source=feed#comment-153699 153699
Expecting that "couple of years ago" roughly goes four years back i.e 2004, here are some of my reasons to believe things written above.
Quoting from International Energy Outlook 2007,

"Throughout Central and South America, significant shares of national electric power supplies are derived from renewable energy sources—primarily, hydropower. In times of drought, such heavy reliance on hydroelectricity has been problematic, resulting in widespread power shortages. Hydroelectric generation accounted for 83 percent of Brazil’s total electricity supply in 2004, and despite ongoing efforts to diversify the fuel mix for the country’s electricity generation, hydropower is projected to remain Brazil’s predominant source of electricity through 2030... "

In Central America it is expected to generate more than 54% of the total energy demand.

Yes, Brazil does have a problem there, but is it any worse than India's problem where it is relying on majority [circa 80%, data not checked] on the oil and natural gas imports from OPEC countries? In my opinion no! With the present oil prices spiraling, Brazil is partly insulated from this problem and thus safeguarding the national coffers.

When, a booming economy is dependent on a rising potential [renewables] rather than a falling one [read: oil] I see a chance over there for new companies to fill in this void of assuring a continuous supply. And we must not forget, Brazil is one of the most underrated economies, with an amount of emphasis given on R&D.
I see it as bricks and mortars for building a sustainable 'winning' trade.
You may very well note that, I have quoted forward data till 2030. I have a reason there.
Thats for the long term perspective. Real long! :)
Hope it clears your doubts.]]> Sun, 20 Apr 2008 14:51:35 -0400
Expecting that "couple of years ago" roughly goes four years back i.e 2004, here are some of my reasons to believe things written above.
Quoting from International Energy Outlook 2007,

"Throughout Central and South America, significant shares of national electric power supplies are derived from renewable energy sources—primarily, hydropower. In times of drought, such heavy reliance on hydroelectricity has been problematic, resulting in widespread power shortages. Hydroelectric generation accounted for 83 percent of Brazil’s total electricity supply in 2004, and despite ongoing efforts to diversify the fuel mix for the country’s electricity generation, hydropower is projected to remain Brazil’s predominant source of electricity through 2030... "

In Central America it is expected to generate more than 54% of the total energy demand.

Yes, Brazil does have a problem there, but is it any worse than India's problem where it is relying on majority [circa 80%, data not checked] on the oil and natural gas imports from OPEC countries? In my opinion no! With the present oil prices spiraling, Brazil is partly insulated from this problem and thus safeguarding the national coffers.

When, a booming economy is dependent on a rising potential [renewables] rather than a falling one [read: oil] I see a chance over there for new companies to fill in this void of assuring a continuous supply. And we must not forget, Brazil is one of the most underrated economies, with an amount of emphasis given on R&D.
I see it as bricks and mortars for building a sustainable 'winning' trade.
You may very well note that, I have quoted forward data till 2030. I have a reason there.
Thats for the long term perspective. Real long! :)
Hope it clears your doubts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72878/comments?source=feed#comment-153284 153284 Your takes are interesting, but my line of reasoning is not in the same line.

I am arguing more from the socio-economic point of view. In fact the article could have been better named had there been a byline for the article, socio-economic analysis of India.

I do agree inflation is burning a deep hole, I do agree that elections are going to happen and populist measures are taken by the establishment, but my analysis focuses on 'extra' long term something to the effect of 4-5 years of horizon. And this was justified via the socio-economic mood study, as done by Robert Prechter in his first seminal study in 1985.

As for the bullishness of the economy in the long run, I think we both agree here. Socio-economic moods can very actually predict the long term trends of a nation.]]> Sat, 19 Apr 2008 01:00:07 -0400 Your takes are interesting, but my line of reasoning is not in the same line.

I am arguing more from the socio-economic point of view. In fact the article could have been better named had there been a byline for the article, socio-economic analysis of India.

I do agree inflation is burning a deep hole, I do agree that elections are going to happen and populist measures are taken by the establishment, but my analysis focuses on 'extra' long term something to the effect of 4-5 years of horizon. And this was justified via the socio-economic mood study, as done by Robert Prechter in his first seminal study in 1985.

As for the bullishness of the economy in the long run, I think we both agree here. Socio-economic moods can very actually predict the long term trends of a nation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72878/comments?source=feed#comment-153167 153167
So I really don't believe that the consumer confidence is tanking... but yes any data to shed light on it can give us some perspective

[Normally Nielsen releases at the end of the year, so I don't think the latest ones are out yet]]]> Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:12:08 -0400
So I really don't believe that the consumer confidence is tanking... but yes any data to shed light on it can give us some perspective

[Normally Nielsen releases at the end of the year, so I don't think the latest ones are out yet]]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72878/comments?source=feed#comment-152837 152837
Thanks.
And yeah definitely the private barometers are less likely to be skewed than the governmental. Nielsen India often comes up with Indian business news. But for papers you have to shell out some dough.]]> Fri, 18 Apr 2008 09:28:35 -0400
Thanks.
And yeah definitely the private barometers are less likely to be skewed than the governmental. Nielsen India often comes up with Indian business news. But for papers you have to shell out some dough.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72878/comments?source=feed#comment-152833 152833 True... but I think investors need to look beyond the projections and stories of media, to appreciate all the facets of an investment]]> Fri, 18 Apr 2008 09:26:50 -0400 True... but I think investors need to look beyond the projections and stories of media, to appreciate all the facets of an investment]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72878/comments?source=feed#comment-152830 152830
The data shown over here from MasterIndex is six months forward projecting. So Dec 2007 consumer confidence index shows the consumer confidence for the next half yearly period of 2008.]]> Fri, 18 Apr 2008 09:25:40 -0400
The data shown over here from MasterIndex is six months forward projecting. So Dec 2007 consumer confidence index shows the consumer confidence for the next half yearly period of 2008.]]>