carbonates

Investing in Wind Energy: When Will Growth Peak?

I'd like to see some calculations of how you think that growth rate of installations can be maintained. This seems to be Kool-Aid for the alternative energy sect and I don't agree with your math. Few business models or natural functions can grow in the manner you are suggesting.

Manufacturing of equipment, availability of capital, capacity of local and long distance power infrastructure, NIMBY problems that require months and years of public hearings, environmental hurdles such as Environmental Impact Statements (often requiring a year or more of preparation), leasing of land from landowners, building of roads, species impacts such as those on bats and birds (not to mention endangered species like Kangaroo Rats and Mojave Ground Squirrels), Federal leasing requirements, local and state government regulations and permits, time required for actual site research into wind patterns to justify economics of projects, time limitations on field and construction access caused by wildlife breeding periods (required by Federal regulations), lack of trained installation personnel who are willing to work 200 ft in the air, insurance and liability issues, transportation limits that restrict the size of equipment that can be moved in many areas, bad weather and myriad other problems are quite likely to limit the growth rate to a much smaller number and will eventually impose a maximum growth rate, probably long before 2016. As the overall annual growth increases, it is likely to be a smaller and smaller percentage of the year before leaving the total installed capacity to grow in a pattern resembling a natural log, rather than being exponential as you suggest. Dream on.