greencapitalist

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

>>>>>&g... never claimed that FSLR is short on the demand side. Their production capacity for the next few years have already been fully booked into existing sales contracts. They have no spare capacity to expand into the North America even if they want to. But they are severely short on the SUPPLY side, tellurium supply. That's worse than demand shortage.
i agree on this. their 4 plants sure is for existing contracts.

>>>>>&g... surely are missing something. Don't you wonder why they haven't announced any new contracts for a long while now, and the insiders are selling like crazy? They can have as many new customers as they want, but they don't have any production capacity to satisfy new customers.
i guess is it due to lack of orders. meaning with their 4 current plants almost dedicated to existing customers, they are probably waiting for new customers to commit. so.cal plant might be the first one. assuming, so.cal okays after their 22mw pilot and gives close to 750mw to fslr, i suppose we can expect one or 2 additional plants. why build plants when utilities take time in giving orders. pilot projects in say so.cal or florida or china or india can easily satisfied by existing plants.
i remember them issuing new plants in last may. maybe in this may 1st earnings we can expect some new orders assuming some big order win is on the way.
also i guess insider selling is booking some profit right. if i were a ceo and my company shares has burst ahead, i sure want some cash. can you give some details on the insider selling in terms of numbers.

>>>>>&g... don't you wonder why they have not announced any new factory plan for over a year now? There is still plenty of land available in Malaysia. They can build more factories adjacent to each other, all the way to the seashore!
please see my reply for above point.

>>>>>&g... they know they don't have the tellurium supply to expand new production capacity. They announced 4 new Malaysia factories last year. But we haven't heard about any progress on the construction of the four factories so far. I suspect not all of them will be constructed after all.
i think you are assuming lot of things. why should they update every day on plant progress. i am sure this earnings they will announce progress. if not then during next earnings. it is not as though walmart is giving sales figures everyday.

>>>>>Ea... factory would cost $150M at original estimate, and now estimated at $180M a piece due to cost oevr-run and inflation. They need $720M in cash to pay for the cost, plus some more for production startup cost. They will need $800M. They did one secondary offering in last year getting a total of $400M. They are still short of $400M, and so far they still have no indication they will do an additional secondary offering to get the cash, why? Even the existing $400M hasn't been spent much if you look at their latest balance sheet. Have they abandoned some of the Malaysia factories? Why the money hasn't been spent yet, when the first factory should already be finished by now?
i remember listening in last conference call that first plant is almost done and rest 3 plants will take lot of inputs from first plant in terms of costs savings and per wattage improvement. which balance sheet are you referring. did you get the latest one after last earnings.

>>>>Why FSLR hasn't responded to me? I personally reported the CFO to SEC on his terawatts tellurium claim. Shouldn't that be enough to make them jump and send a lawyer to me immediately? Why don't you, Andrew Ling, contact FSLR and find out how they would respond to my articles? Why don't you ask them to provide specific data on the quantity of their tellurium supply?
i am not sure whether fslr will respond to me. but even in last conference call and in recent solar conference the ceo told they are super comfortable with te supply. why respond to panic when probably there is none.

>>>>>&g... don't even currently hold any FSLR short for now. I am heavily in PAL and SWC on the precious metal play. I am hoping they run FSLR price up and I have in vested interest in seeing FSLR fall at this time. But truth must be told, and must be researched by all concerned parties in FSLR. Why is FSLR so secretive on their tellurium supply?
as i told why create panic when there is none. may 1st we will get more light from fslr.

if fslr continues to ramp up and assuming te supply is not an issue at all, let me tell one thing. 300 bucks for fslr is like 3 bucks. this baby is limitless with per wattage costs even challenging the dirty coal.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

mark, fslr is expanding into north american market with their so.california plant. looks like a massive 730mw deal with 22mw pilot.

i suppose they are also looking onto another 1gw entry into north america.

with 2gw committed already + 2gw coming in, there seems be no shortage of any demand + fslr monster push into per wattage cost coming onto main levels looks like the monster company is for limitless growth.

am i missing something. this baby might even go 1000 bucks if they announce another 4gw entry into 3 to 5 projects. you add to that china and india, the potential looks limitless.