greencapitalist

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

jack, well written.

>>>>FSLR did go up pretty substantially (49%), but far, far less than my favorite, CSIQ. Indeed, I believe FSLR is living on its previous laurels and momentum generated by all of its boosters in the investment community. I expect these high-PE stocks to continue to underperform their low-PE brethren going forward.
i was fslr bull, but 3 things has made me jump out of stock.

1. massive selling (although prearranged) by ceo. he sold off 50% of his stocks!!!!

2. eu seems to be having second thoughts on the toxic cadmium. this is in rumour stages though.

3. certain analysts concerned about te material.

unless these 3 are clarified openly by company, it is advisable not to go long on fslr. of course you can daytrade and/or short it as you feel fit.

Solar Again Under Attack

this is shocking. i also read bloomberg story on this.

a ceo selling 50% of stock is shocking. add to that cd/te issue of toxicity. and add to that potential eu ban due to toxicity and add to that cd/te is rare to find....

WHERE IS MARK ANTHONY????? he was telling the above points non stop....

if all above are true, fslr will trade at other solar stock valuations which means stock price of 100 or less.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

one more thing to note is sector rotation. from ag and solar onto tech and financials. the big guys can move any sector as they want and even a beat and raise guidance from fslr gets downgrades!!!!

remember many of these same analysts DID NOT tell you to buy fslr when it was like 150 to 175 after severe shorting couple of weeks back.

we will see how it plays out. thin film is still hot and only FSLR delivers that technology in big power plant spaces. i am still betting on so.cal and canadian pilots to bring in close to 2gw and the stock will have to react to that in a very big way assuming its gets shorted in between then.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

fslr earnings is no way dud guys.

a 714% y/o/y growth is no joke. tell me 1 company that can deliver this kind of performance?

i got the below from real money website.

First Solar (FSLR - commentary - Cramer's Take), the solar module manufacturer that is in expansion mode, reported earnings of 57 cents per share, for 714% year-over-year growth and a 26% decline sequentially. The sequential decline was due to an annual contractual pricing decline of 6.5%. Revenue increased year over year by 194%, to $197 million. More importantly, operating margins increased by a hefty 23%, to 30%, despite costs increasing by 151%, to an average of $1.14 per watt.

very importantly, they have american market foothold
The company, which has most of its revenue based in Europe, is setting its sights on the U.S. utility market -- particularly in the Southwest. One such project is a 7.5-megawatt project with Southern California Edison, which is under review by California regulators.

this i guess is a whopping 750mw capacity. and it is no joke this capacity and if fslr gets it, they have lined up canadian and oregon implementation on same > 500 mw capacity.

the juice is just starting from fslr. wait till more annoucements come after canada and so.cal pilots.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

yoh shorts... dont cover so fast.

i agree on one thing. it is not the monster fslr beat. but remember fslr is not ma or rimm to be beating every qtr and guiding up monster. it is a business that involves lot of product nuances, cycles, pilots, etc.

they guided higher as usual and i think they are conservative since they are working on good number of pipeline projects which might take time to come onboard.

same with spwr. they increased year guidance big time but gave conservative next qtr due to product cycles.

i was waiting for 260 from weak hands to enter fslr but never happened.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

this is a shocking article poorly researched and written and i guess seekingalpha is nowadays getting known for those. look at v and ma articles in this website. total crap to say the least those v and ma articles.

fslr has NOTHIGN to do with my roof top. it is big power plants that come in hundreds of megawatts. so.cal and canadian utilties alone are piloting close to 2 gw (the pilot is from 20 to 50mw) each on fslr.

the only company in solar sector to beat the dirty coal power price in 2009 is fslr.

so what if the ceo sells. if he is doing by plan then what's the problem. if the stock tanks to 150 also he has to sell as per pre arranged plan. so what's the big news about it.

tomorrow flsr will give 80 cents per share. expected is 47cents. expect announcements on new hundred megawatts orders from them.

and frank dont cover your short till it reaches 400 in next couple of weeks okay?

Further Musings on Solar Stocks

jack,
jaso is growing at nearly 90% growth y/o/y and on high 70's q/o/q. why not give 30 p/e for such growth.

similarly spwr showed 90% y/o/y growth and except for the one 'flat' word usage by the cfo in the conference call, they are guiding higher and are also telling silicon costs are coming down and 10% cost efficiency is coming on.

a growth company on the range of 90 to 100% certainly can deserve 40 p/e or more.

look at baidu. a company growing 90 to 100% has an astounding 140 p/e!!!!

i think you might be wrong on fslr. fslr will be achieving almost grid parity in 2009 itself. they have 2gw in production with 2 more gw potentially coming from so.cal and canada utilities. pilot is on. i dont think silicon can come anywhere near grid parity at all in near future. not only that once fslr goes closer to 4gw or 5gw, they can easily thump even grid parity cost wise per wattage. which solar company can do that in 2009 or even say 5 years from now.

fslr with 5gw assured orders will be in 500's since its earnings will have to be doubled and trebled. also they are planning on residential small panels for solar generation at very cheap prices. this is a new area which can prove wonders for them.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

>>>>>&g... never claimed that FSLR is short on the demand side. Their production capacity for the next few years have already been fully booked into existing sales contracts. They have no spare capacity to expand into the North America even if they want to. But they are severely short on the SUPPLY side, tellurium supply. That's worse than demand shortage.
i agree on this. their 4 plants sure is for existing contracts.

>>>>>&g... surely are missing something. Don't you wonder why they haven't announced any new contracts for a long while now, and the insiders are selling like crazy? They can have as many new customers as they want, but they don't have any production capacity to satisfy new customers.
i guess is it due to lack of orders. meaning with their 4 current plants almost dedicated to existing customers, they are probably waiting for new customers to commit. so.cal plant might be the first one. assuming, so.cal okays after their 22mw pilot and gives close to 750mw to fslr, i suppose we can expect one or 2 additional plants. why build plants when utilities take time in giving orders. pilot projects in say so.cal or florida or china or india can easily satisfied by existing plants.
i remember them issuing new plants in last may. maybe in this may 1st earnings we can expect some new orders assuming some big order win is on the way.
also i guess insider selling is booking some profit right. if i were a ceo and my company shares has burst ahead, i sure want some cash. can you give some details on the insider selling in terms of numbers.

>>>>>&g... don't you wonder why they have not announced any new factory plan for over a year now? There is still plenty of land available in Malaysia. They can build more factories adjacent to each other, all the way to the seashore!
please see my reply for above point.

>>>>>&g... they know they don't have the tellurium supply to expand new production capacity. They announced 4 new Malaysia factories last year. But we haven't heard about any progress on the construction of the four factories so far. I suspect not all of them will be constructed after all.
i think you are assuming lot of things. why should they update every day on plant progress. i am sure this earnings they will announce progress. if not then during next earnings. it is not as though walmart is giving sales figures everyday.

>>>>>Ea... factory would cost $150M at original estimate, and now estimated at $180M a piece due to cost oevr-run and inflation. They need $720M in cash to pay for the cost, plus some more for production startup cost. They will need $800M. They did one secondary offering in last year getting a total of $400M. They are still short of $400M, and so far they still have no indication they will do an additional secondary offering to get the cash, why? Even the existing $400M hasn't been spent much if you look at their latest balance sheet. Have they abandoned some of the Malaysia factories? Why the money hasn't been spent yet, when the first factory should already be finished by now?
i remember listening in last conference call that first plant is almost done and rest 3 plants will take lot of inputs from first plant in terms of costs savings and per wattage improvement. which balance sheet are you referring. did you get the latest one after last earnings.

>>>>Why FSLR hasn't responded to me? I personally reported the CFO to SEC on his terawatts tellurium claim. Shouldn't that be enough to make them jump and send a lawyer to me immediately? Why don't you, Andrew Ling, contact FSLR and find out how they would respond to my articles? Why don't you ask them to provide specific data on the quantity of their tellurium supply?
i am not sure whether fslr will respond to me. but even in last conference call and in recent solar conference the ceo told they are super comfortable with te supply. why respond to panic when probably there is none.

>>>>>&g... don't even currently hold any FSLR short for now. I am heavily in PAL and SWC on the precious metal play. I am hoping they run FSLR price up and I have in vested interest in seeing FSLR fall at this time. But truth must be told, and must be researched by all concerned parties in FSLR. Why is FSLR so secretive on their tellurium supply?
as i told why create panic when there is none. may 1st we will get more light from fslr.

if fslr continues to ramp up and assuming te supply is not an issue at all, let me tell one thing. 300 bucks for fslr is like 3 bucks. this baby is limitless with per wattage costs even challenging the dirty coal.

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

mark, fslr is expanding into north american market with their so.california plant. looks like a massive 730mw deal with 22mw pilot.

i suppose they are also looking onto another 1gw entry into north america.

with 2gw committed already + 2gw coming in, there seems be no shortage of any demand + fslr monster push into per wattage cost coming onto main levels looks like the monster company is for limitless growth.

am i missing something. this baby might even go 1000 bucks if they announce another 4gw entry into 3 to 5 projects. you add to that china and india, the potential looks limitless.