Frank A

Frank A
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  • Netflix Is Still The Movie Streaming Champion  [View article]
    Wasn't a short squeeze, was another rumor. And when dealing with Microsoft, after the botch that was trying to buy Yahoo for 40 billion and then afterwards thanking the gods above that they had a stupid CEO that wouldn't sell, I highly doubt Microsoft will buy Netflix, but instead work with them like Microsoft does with Yahoo now.

    Yes, they are pumping this pig stock without a doubt. They need to because they will have to convince the content providers they have the capital to pay their bills, as they did prior to signing the deal and is the reason Hastings sold shares for half of what he paid for them only 2-3 months prior to buying them. The need to keep a certain amount of cash on hand.

    This amount of cash might be 400 million or it might be a higher figure, but if netflix has a couple of bad quarters, they might burn through a good amount of cash. It can go very fast, including unexpected situations.

    Netflix is priming up stupid money for a new stock offering. They have no choice. They will ride the propaganda of a Microsoft deal for this purpose. They need cash, 800 million is nothing for a global company that is paying billions for content deals.

    Put it in perspective. It is like the average person with 3k in monthly bills with only 4 months of emergency cash in the bank. You can burn through that really quickly if anything unexpected happens. Netflix is shopping for cash right now.
    Oct 27, 2012. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still The Movie Streaming Champion  [View article]
    They had 800M, now its 780M or so and it will continue to go lower each quarter because they are losing more DVD subs, gaining less profitable subs, and their content expenses go up in 2013, as will their expansion costs. As they go into less profitable countries they will gain less and risk more.

    Netflix has to raise money soon. I mean this quarter and they will pump this pig up again with the help of Whitney and the same usual suspects from here on out. Is it possible that Hastings called him to ask him to pump this pig? Yes, I am certain that is exactly what happened a few weeks before they reported and when it became apparent that this quarter would be a disaster.

    Look for the same exact thing from here on out. The problem, of course, is most people realize it's a scam and it will mean less and less, but their are always sucker-mouth catfish investors who don't know anything and jump in with stupid money only to lose their shirts while holding the bag.

    Netflix's plan cannot work for the reason I mentioned in my other post in this thread.

    I am not looking to cash in, so to speak. I already made plenty of money and have free puts until march 13 as a result of the Hastings Facebook fraud post. I am looking for a honest risk to reward sum. I feel Netflix is an Enron type fraud and needs to be investigated by the SEC. I honestly believe they are outright lying on their numbers.

    We shall see how this turns out.
    Oct 25, 2012. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still The Movie Streaming Champion  [View article]
    I think in the past three months we have been pretty much right on with what Netflix would do. I wonder what they will do in the next three months. I'm going to have to look into my crystal ball again and let's see. Oh, predictably, they will be trying to raise $200 to 500 million dollars due to cash shortage.

    How do I know this? I know this because they had to sell stock last year that they bought at $125+ a share, for $75 a share because it was one of the requirements of the contracts they signed. I really didn't need a crystal ball for this, but it seems like black magic when I pretend to use it and it baffles the natives who stand around with their mouths open because they don't realize that if you do some research it kind of takes the mystery out of it.

    Netflix will spend this quarter trying to raise money with either a new stock offering or a loan.

    They have to raise money now because with the increase in streaming and decrease in DVD subs, they are going to be flat or negative for at least two more years and if they wait until they have no cash, their ability to secure a loan will be very low. The same applies to trying to have a new stock offering.

    What my crystal ball tells me also is that right before this event we will hear from Whitney and the same cronies about a great value if they can speed up the international expansion with more cash. LOL.

    Natives, look at me, I have a magical device that can start fire. LOL. <Natives gasp>. The hype we saw about linguists will be the innuendo that they need to convince those on the sidelines that Netflix is serious and that they want to expand quickly.

    What the new mouth-breathers don't understand is that when you expand you must continue to spend money on advertising and infrastructure to maintain a presence there. The problem with that is many other companies are already there or coming soon, and this will negate any advantage because many of these companies can outspend you for advertising and presence.

    Finally, crystal ball, please tell me what happens then, the natives ask, but without words, instead they make a motion with their brow and a gesture with their hands moving towards them to tell them quickly as their excitement mounts.. Then, after you spend all that money getting your product in all those countries it's time to bid for streaming contracts again. Darn it !! All of those companies have more money than we do and we lost almost everything we had of any value. The Amazon servers know what we know about our most popular shows. THEY KNOW WHAT WE KNOW !! They outbid us for all of the good shows that we counted on and keep close to our chests. LOL.

    This is the crystal ball version of what will happen to Netflix in the next two years. Eagle and anyone else can laugh at this two years from now if I'm wrong, but I'm sure you will never mention it again if I'm right. And I don't need a crystal ball for this. I only need common sense and enough experience of the business world where I have seen this happen before.

    What baffles the natives isn't magic, it only seems that way to those who don't know any better and are mystified by history repeating itself, but they have no history to drawn upon and therefore it's like it's happening for the first time.
    Oct 25, 2012. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Simple Math Shows Upside And Acquisition Potential  [View article]
    Paul. I have learned something in my life that I think most people have as well, and that is, most people don't know anything. They rely on analysts and other people to stare into their crystal ball and tell them what to think and do. Then they buy the stock and it drops 10 pts and they lose their shirts and wonder what went wrong. Most people are not bright and you cannot explain things to them that are obvious to you because they cannot see anything except what they have been programmed to believe.

    I asked a room full of people once what clean coal was, and not one person knew that clean coal was only a myth and has never been proven to be possible. They all thought they knew and spewed their programmed talking points out, but not one knew it is at least 10 years and 50 billion in research away and that most scientists believe that it is not possible.

    What is obvious to us, doesn't even register to them. Netflix already died and we know this, but they cannot see it. So, what you do, is what Whitney and the other analysts do, just take their money.
    Oct 24, 2012. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Simple Math Shows Upside And Acquisition Potential  [View article]
    Read my previous posts and see for yourself. Since the FB post I am up big and have puts from nov 12 to march 13 on the house. You do not need a crystal ball to see what will happen to a company when you stop listening to analysts and start reading and doing your own research.

    I welcomed anyone to respond to a previous post and no one did about what numbers they expected. I also said the Wednesday morning quarterbacks will be coming out of the woodwork, most of which will have lost their shirts and be left holding their bag full of broken toys.
    Oct 24, 2012. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix CEO: Subscription Growth Miss Was A 'Forecasting Error,' Long-Term Outlook Is Positive  [View article]
    The more I see of the stock market, the more I realize that it is one big organized crime scheme. You have three lowlifes (who where wrong before on this same stock), pump this pig stock up with nothing more than meaningless chatter and the price rises again because most of the investors are too ignorant to do their own research.

    If the SEC doesn't investigate this company and see what the connection is to these analysts, than they are conspirators in this scam as well.

    I guess the real problem is most people listen to the hype and are too lazy, stupid, to know any better. I have heard all kinds of things on this board from people who spew numbers they heard somewhere and repeat business plans that any logical person would immediately shoot down as ridiculous, but somehow, they think that netflix is a sound buy. LOL.

    In a way, I don't blame Netflix and it's cronies or Cramer and his posse. I mean, why not? It's too easy to steal money from people in the stock market legally. No one goes to jail. LOL. You really can't make this stuff up. It just is too easy to take away stupid money. It really is.

    Anyone who had a pulse should have known 7 million was not possible.
    Oct 24, 2012. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Simple Math Shows Upside And Acquisition Potential  [View article]
    I feel bad that the author is long Netflix because if the 3Q results don't tell you the company is on a road to nowhere, than I don't know what will. But, keep listening to the analysts that have been wrong 3 times in a row when they pound the table and tell you to keep looking at the future growth of Netflix, as they pump and dump the stock and leave easily influenced bag holders clinching onto this worthless sham of a stock.
    Oct 24, 2012. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: Uncertainty Over Subs Growth, Cost Pressure To Persist In The Near-Term  [View article]
    To comment on your analysts statement relating to 48% of customers being happy as opposed to 45%. They forget to factor in that last year many who were unhappy with the services still had it and then they left. This leaves only those who were not ticked off that much about the price increase. Another way of looking at it, is 52% of the people are not happy. yes, even at $8 a month. Imagine what this will be like in 2013 when Netflix raises its prices to $9.99.

    Before 2Q we heard so much pump and dump nonsense. We have heard it again this quarter. It is the only thing driving this stock upwards before earnings.

    My favorite thing, of course, on these boards is people who type walls of meaningless text but then can't answer simple questions relating to what the only numbers that matter will be. After all, all of that analysis is meaningless if it doesn't translate into results. If you cannot predict to some degree of certainty what the important numbers will be, what sense does it makes to go through all of the monotonous number crunching?

    I might be wrong, and I have been before, but I put out there what I honestly feel what will happen this quarter. I am not impressed with analyst's opinions and price targets. They are all meaningless misinformation designed to take stupid people's money.
    Oct 22, 2012. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: Uncertainty Over Subs Growth, Cost Pressure To Persist In The Near-Term  [View article]
    No, I am not hedging at all. This may not be the smartest thing in the world, but I truly believe Netflix is being run into the ground by a moron. IMO, the CEO misleads investors with his unofficial statements and I feel they are unethical. As I mentioned in a previous post, as soon as I heard the FB post about one billion hours I bought $32.50 Dec 12 puts. He recently said the new market was going better than expected. This, after 3 days of starting to do business there. I take this as good news for shorts.

    I have studied Netflix for two years and I honestly believe they are finished.

    In this thread I mention exactly what I expect this quarter. No one else has answered my question in this thread but I'm sure they will be Wednesday morning quarterbacks.

    My current position is $32.50 dec 12 put contracts, $20 march 13 put contracts and I recently bought $40 nov 12 put contracts.

    I fully expect netflix to report dismal 3rd quarter results and I expect an even worse 4th quarter.

    I lay it on the line, right or wrong. Again, maybe not that smart, but I'm playing with house money after selling some of those puts right after Q2 results.
    Oct 21, 2012. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: Uncertainty Over Subs Growth, Cost Pressure To Persist In The Near-Term  [View article]
    I agree with your assessment. I think Netflix will be swept away like a boat adrift in a tide once the big boys show up and buy content that is worthy.

    I had Netflix for about 6 months before they increased the price and thought it was a good time to get DVD because the streaming was the same junk every month and anytime you saw a good movie, it was DVD anyway.

    Some of the DVD movies took a long time to arrive and then I canceled Netflix and started to use Redbox. It was $1 a movie at that time, the selection was better, and it was instant gratification (if they had the movie in stock, I watched it). This cost less than Netflix and was right in the grocery store I shopped in.

    Netflix is a fad, as you said. It will die faster that anyone believes because streaming was not its market. It was a DVD by mail company, whereas streaming competes with TV, Cable, and many of the Internet channels. I firmly believe Netflix will be bankrupt during the year if it isn't bought out.
    Oct 20, 2012. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: Uncertainty Over Subs Growth, Cost Pressure To Persist In The Near-Term  [View article]
    My opinion:

    How many new paying domestic streaming subs do you think they will add?


    How many new paying foreign subs do you think they will add?


    How many DVD loses will they have?


    Therefore, how many overall sub gains or losses will Netflix have in Q3?


    What will the EPS be?


    I'm providing these numbers knowing the CEO is a snake oil salesman. He tried to pump the stock before the dismal Q2 results with a FB post, and already tried to pump it again on Thursday by saying the Scandinavian market is going better than they thought. Wow, after 3 days he has a strong opinion of the market there, LOL.

    There you have it, I put my money where my mouth is.
    Oct 20, 2012. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: Uncertainty Over Subs Growth, Cost Pressure To Persist In The Near-Term  [View article]
    I will chime in to answer this question:

    "there's no money in streaming" Do you see the irony?

    There is no irony here if you understand that there is no money to be made for almost everyone, and only the companies who bring other resources to the table will exist when the others no longer can afford the content. It is a cutthroat business and Netflix isn't making money in foreign markets right now. Right? I mean, you know that as well as I do, so there is your answer. When a company tries to enter new markets, they low-ball price and try to gain market share. This is business 101.

    Not for anything dgulick, but you are typing walls of text that don't really say what you feel is going to happen. The reason one evaluates data is to find out what will happen next, not to repeat it without using that knowledge to forecast what will occur. Can you do this for us?. So, lets go for it. Anyone else feel free to answer.

    In your opinion, what numbers do you expect Netflix to have this quarter?

    How many new paying domestic streaming subs do you think they will add?

    How many new paying foreign subs do you think they will add?

    How many DVD loses will they have?

    Therefore, how many overall sub gains or losses will Netflix have in Q3?

    What will the EPS be?

    I have made my estimate already in this thread and would like you to give us your best judgement of what will happen for Q3. Beyond Q3 is meaningless right now, lets focus on solely on Q3 numbers.
    Oct 20, 2012. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: Uncertainty Over Subs Growth, Cost Pressure To Persist In The Near-Term  [View article]
    Competition is going to be fierce in the US and also globally. Netflix doesn't have the capital to compete with Google, Verizon, and Apple.

    They are already being outbid for content. They are not profitable in quarters where they expand into new markets. Did you ever consider what would happen if DVD and US streaming both fall? The expansion plans would be put on hold and the company would be bankrupt in 6-12 months. Of course, they would try to put out a new stock offering or get financing from somewhere, but it would dilute the stock to worthless status.
    Oct 17, 2012. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview: Uncertainty Over Subs Growth, Cost Pressure To Persist In The Near-Term  [View article]
    I don't know why people believe that the company's growth will skyrocket. You do realize Netflix is facing stiff competition in foreign markets? You do realize when they expand into those, they are not profitable, and will not be for 2 years or more? You do realize that the DVD business is more profitable and that they are losing about 9-10% of those per quarter? Why in the world would anyone expect Netflix to gain 7 million subs this year when, so far this year, they have gained only roughly 2.7 million?

    Does anyone read between the lines anymore? Didn't Netflix say they would expand into Scandinavian countries in the 4th quarter? Then why did they start early? Ask yourselves this question. Could it be, perhaps, that they are still under the low end of the expected sub gains for the quarter and want to at least meet that low guidance?

    Netflix is not a buyout target folks. The best they could hope for is an alliance with a larger company that will promote them for their mobile platforms and maybe somehow incorporate netflix monthly subs into another package like music, books, etc. Who in their right mind would buy Netflix with all those bad contracts, high debt, and a CEO who fumbled the ball all of 2011? Could you imagine having to work with someone who thinks they are a genius because some idiot who worked for them told him he was, and then having to listen to the pathetic "business plans" that that same person would be spewing out like it was gospel, but that you know would fail?

    You would have to be crazy.

    Netflix might be in the guidance profit range, but imo, they are lower than the sub guidance and without a doubt, will not reach 7 million new subs this year. I'm putting my neck out here because the internet never forgets, but when you feel something so strongly, you have to go with it. I feel as if Netflix will gain 600-800k customers total this quarter for a grand total of 3.3 to 3.5 this year and will revise their subs from 7 to 5 million when the quarter results are out or soon thereafter.

    My opinion is based on nothing but working some numbers that are available to anyone and by the populations of each of the countries they have gone into. The countries they are expanding into have half the population of the UK and Ireland, and therefore you can make some sound estimates of how many subs they will gain.
    Oct 17, 2012. 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Buy Into A 40% Rally  [View article]
    Netflix has no value to Microsoft. I mean really, what does Netflix have that anybody needs? They have a streaming business that is paying top dollar for second rate content, worldwide presence means worldwide competition and bidding wars with companies that make money from things other than streaming movies.

    They ruined their reputation with the price increase in 2011, they are losing the profitable DVD by mail business, and they can't meet subscriber targets.

    The company may never see another profitable quarter. Q3 will be a disaster. If anyone here believes otherwise, please explain what you think the sub numbers for the quarter will be, including +/- DVD, US streaming, and foreign streaming. Also, explain how they will reach 7 million new subs this year when they are only at 2.7 million half way through.
    Oct 11, 2012. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment