H. Michael Arguello_

Follow the Mutual Funds: Solar Is Bottoming

Disagree, solar in general is in for a bumpy ride these enxt two years. Credit for financing projects is non-existent, neither at the retial level nor at the commercial level. The subsidies provide dby Europe are expiring so that goes out the window as well. You will see some Solar companies go bust in the current environment and the liquidation of their inventories will crush panel prices in the short term. Throw in the fact that oil at these prices makes traditional energy dirt cheap, and solar is in for some serious heartache.

The frustrating part is that this has happened before, in the late 70s/early 80s. We NEED solar to mature but the economics of it simply will not hold up. I see Obama keeping the solars on life support, but I dont think he will be able to convince customers to buy solar without credit given how cheap oil is. The weaker players will go under. Stronger players like FSLR will hopefully survive and when the economy turns around, be there to siphon off oil demand. Here is to hoping.

I do think FSLR will survive so I like that recommendation, I dont care for the weaker solar players. A long FSLR/short SPWRA might be an interesitng position.

No positions in Solar at the moment.