Joe E's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/176596/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/134026-e-trade-s-mortgage-snafu-will-it-prompt-a-sale?source=feed#comment-483388 483388 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:20:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84244-review-of-current-losing-positions-nzt-acas-skm-ge?source=feed#comment-206890 206890 Is all this doscounted in the price? Who knows? We do know that Wall Street hates to own companies that will report declining earnings next quarter no matter what the long term might hold.
Over time they should be OK. They are in a good business, their competition is weakened and they are not overleveraged. The biggest risk is that they become fixated on maintenance of the dividend and weaken their companies. Same problem REIT's have. The market clearly expects dividend cuts in the future and so should we.]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 11:19:13 -0400 Is all this doscounted in the price? Who knows? We do know that Wall Street hates to own companies that will report declining earnings next quarter no matter what the long term might hold.
Over time they should be OK. They are in a good business, their competition is weakened and they are not overleveraged. The biggest risk is that they become fixated on maintenance of the dividend and weaken their companies. Same problem REIT's have. The market clearly expects dividend cuts in the future and so should we.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78639-these-32-commercial-banks-and-thrifts-may-see-the-dung-hit-the-fan?source=feed#comment-173415 173415 Even the best capitalized major banks are in no position to withstand a serious recession at this point, at least without seriously diluting shareholders. The brands can survive, but current shareholders may see their stakes diluted enormously. This means lower stock prices. However, a coming recession is not certain and the big banks have lived through tough times in the past. They also have the Fed as their friend.
If the economy holds up, then your analysis might look too pessimistic later. If the economy, especially employment, gets worse to a significant degree, then your analysis will seem brilliant.
I also think that there will be some relaxation of the mark-to-market rule for banks which has caused much of the recent markdown activity and depressed earnings/capital. ACAS gave an example of a debt security they were forced to mark as worth $11 million dollars even though it produced and is producing $8 million in cash flow each quarter. The fed has made a start on this for banks by accepting non-treasury securities as collateral for some loans. The Fed is unlikely to let major banks go under because of a new and arguably flawed accounting rule change. This by the way is not meant to contradict your analysis but just to mention a possible counterforce.
]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 08:05:17 -0400 Even the best capitalized major banks are in no position to withstand a serious recession at this point, at least without seriously diluting shareholders. The brands can survive, but current shareholders may see their stakes diluted enormously. This means lower stock prices. However, a coming recession is not certain and the big banks have lived through tough times in the past. They also have the Fed as their friend.
If the economy holds up, then your analysis might look too pessimistic later. If the economy, especially employment, gets worse to a significant degree, then your analysis will seem brilliant.
I also think that there will be some relaxation of the mark-to-market rule for banks which has caused much of the recent markdown activity and depressed earnings/capital. ACAS gave an example of a debt security they were forced to mark as worth $11 million dollars even though it produced and is producing $8 million in cash flow each quarter. The fed has made a start on this for banks by accepting non-treasury securities as collateral for some loans. The Fed is unlikely to let major banks go under because of a new and arguably flawed accounting rule change. This by the way is not meant to contradict your analysis but just to mention a possible counterforce.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77421-hedging-your-bet-with-american-capital-strategies?source=feed#comment-169239 169239 Let's hope not.

The worst case here is a dividend cut. ]]> Sat, 17 May 2008 05:36:10 -0400 Let's hope not.

The worst case here is a dividend cut. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71921-wamu-capital-infusion-now-that-s-dilution?source=feed#comment-148874 148874 ]]> Fri, 11 Apr 2008 09:07:43 -0400 ]]>